Scenario modeling
Use the future to solve today's complex challenges
For organizations looking to address complex policy/legislation challenges or to explore new products, services, and business models that require multi-year planning and investments, Quantumrun Foresight encourages a process called scenario modeling. This service is among the most practical applications for strategic foresight and offers the highest potential ROI for your organization.
Offering
Scenario modeling involves in-depth analysis and exploration of different market environments that may emerge over the coming five, 10, 20 years, or longer. Understanding these future scenarios can provide organizations with greater confidence when planning strategic long-term investments.
The scenario modeling process usually involves multidisciplinary teams of both Quantumrun and client employees and follows this standardized approach.
Scenario methodology in detail
| Stage | Description | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Focal issue | Identify core business issue/topic: Purpose, objectives, stakeholders, timelines, budget, deliverables; assessing current state vs preferred future state. | Project plan |
| Disruption tower | Isolate drivers (macro and micro), curate weak and strong signals, and identify broad trends, all of which can build layers of validity into the scenario models built in later stages. | Structured data |
| Prioritization | Structure and rank this broad collection of drivers, signals, and trends by importance, uncertainty, as well as client-requested factors. | Ranked data |
| Scenario logics | By coordinating with client representatives, the highest-performing research components from the previous stage will be prioritized in the subsequent scenario modeling process. The number of scenarios to produce and various other model logics and project constraints will be decided/finalized in this stage. | Prioritized data |
| Scenario elaboration | Quantumrun foresight professionals, alongside client representatives, will apply the foundational research compiled and refined in the previous stages to create multiple scenarios of future market environments. These scenarios can range from optimistic to conservative, negative and positive, but each one must be plausible, distinct, consistent, challenging, and have utility. | Reports, narratives, infographics, prototypes |
| Implications | Harvest these scenarios to identify the critical long-term opportunities and threats they illustrate to the organization. This harvesting work will help prioritize strategies that can guide further analysis and development. | Reports, presentations |
| Action | A multidisciplinary team of Quantumrun foresight professionals, subject matter experts, and client representatives can apply the insights from the scenario models to a range of initiatives, from brainstorming solutions to policy/legislation challenges to ideating new products, services, and business models. | Implementation plan |
Results delivered
The scenarios generated by the process outlined above will create the foundational research to secure buy-in and budgets from relevant internal stakeholders for the real-world implementation of projects that require long-term investments and multi-year commitments.
Physical deliverables will include a long-form report that will: Outline the scenario-building methodology; Communicate the various scenarios in detail; Rank and list the key future risks identified; Rank and list the key future opportunities identified; Outline additional scenario application research results directed by the client.
This deliverable can include in-depth infographics of each scenario prepared by Quantumrun designers.
This deliverable can also include a virtual presentation of the key findings.
BONUS: By investing in this scenario modeling service, Quantumrun will include a free, three-month subscription to the Quantumrun Foresight Platform.
Bonus
By investing in this business ideation service, Quantumrun will include a free, three-month subscription to the Quantumrun Foresight Platform.
