Quantumrun

AEIU KI'I: Quantumrun

Pehea e hoʻopau ai ka ʻenehana i ka wā e hiki mai ana i nā hale kūʻai ma 2030 | ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā hale kūʻai P4

ʻO David Tal, mea hoʻopuka, Futurist
@KekahaNaipo
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Poakahi, 09/14/2020 - 09:51

ʻO nā hoa hale kūʻai kūʻai i ʻike hou aku e pili ana i kāu ʻono ma mua o kāu mau hoaaloha pili loa. ʻO ka make ʻana o ka cashier a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kūʻai ʻana ʻole. ʻO ka hoʻohui ʻana o ka pōhaku a me ka mortar me ka e-commerce. I kēia manawa i kā mākou Future of Retail series, ua uhi mākou i kekahi mau ʻano e kū mai ana i hoʻonohonoho ʻia e wehewehe hou i kāu ʻike kūʻai i ka wā e hiki mai ana. Eia nō naʻe, haʻahaʻa kēia mau wānana kokoke i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o ka ʻike kūʻai i nā 2030s a me 2040s.

Ma ke kaʻina o kēia mokuna, e luʻu mua mākou i nā ʻano ʻenehana like ʻole, aupuni, a me nā ʻano waiwai e hoʻololi hou i nā hale kūʻai i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.

5G, IoT, a me ke akamai i nā mea a pau

Ma ka waena o 2020s, e lilo ka pūnaewele 5G i mea maʻamau i waena o nā ʻāina ʻenehana. A ʻoiai ʻaʻole paha kēia e like me ke ʻano nui, pono ʻoe e hoʻomanaʻo i ka hoʻopili ʻana o 5G e hiki ai ke lele a paʻa ma luna o ka maʻamau 4G kekahi o mākou e hauʻoli nei i kēia lā.

Hāʻawi ʻo 3G iā mākou i nā kiʻi. Hāʻawi ʻo 4G iā mākou i wikiō. Akā ʻaʻole manaʻoʻiʻo ʻo 5G haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e ho'ōla i ka honua ola ʻole a puni mākou-e hiki ai iā ia ke hoʻoheheʻe ola VR, ʻoi aku ka pane ʻana i nā kaʻa autonomous, a ʻo ka mea nui o nā mea āpau, ka nānā ʻana i ka manawa maoli o kēlā me kēia mea pili. I nā huaʻōlelo ʻē aʻe, e kōkua ka 5G i ka hiki ke piʻi o ka Internet o Mau (IoT).

E like me ka mea i kūkākūkā ʻia a puni kā mākou Ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka Pūnaewele series, e pili ana ka IoT i ka hoʻokomo ʻana a i ʻole ka hana ʻana i nā kamepiula liʻiliʻi a i ʻole nā mea ʻike i nā mea āpau a puni mākou, e ʻae ana i kēlā me kēia mea i ko mākou puni e kamaʻilio uea me kēlā me kēia mea ʻē aʻe.

I kou ola, hiki iā IoT ke ʻae i kāu mau ipu meaʻai e 'kamaʻilio' me kāu pahu hau, e hoʻomaopopo iā ia i ka wā e pau ana ʻoe i ka meaʻai. A laila hiki i kāu pahu hau ke kamaʻilio me kāu moʻokāki Amazon a kauoha koke i kahi lako meaʻai hou e waiho nei i loko o kāu pūlāwai meaʻai i hoʻonohonoho mua ʻia. I ka manawa e hōʻiliʻili ʻia ai nā meaʻai ma ka hale kūʻai meaʻai kokoke, hiki iā Amazon ke kamaʻilio me kāu kaʻa kaʻa ponoʻī, e koi ana iā ia e hoʻokuʻu i waho no ʻoe e kiʻi i nā mea kūʻai. A laila, lawe ka lopako hale kūʻai i kāu pūʻolo o nā mea kūʻai a hoʻouka i loko o ke kaʻa o kāu kaʻa i loko o kekona kekona o ka huki ʻana i ka laina hoʻoili o ka hale kūʻai. E hoʻi kāu kaʻa iā ia iho i kou home a haʻi i kāu kamepiula home i kona hiki ʻana mai. Mai laila mai, e hoʻolaha aku ʻo Apple's Siri, Amazon's Alexa, a i ʻole AI's Google ua hiki mai kāu mau meaʻai a e kiʻi iā ia mai kāu pahu. (E hoʻomanaʻo ua hala paha mākou i kekahi mau ʻanuʻu i laila, akā loaʻa iā ʻoe ka manaʻo.)

ʻOiai ʻo 5G a me ka IoT e loaʻa i nā hopena ākea a maikaʻi hoʻi i ke ʻano o ka mālama ʻia ʻana o nā ʻoihana, nā kūlanakauhale, a me nā ʻāina, no ka poʻe maʻamau, hiki i kēia mau ʻenehana hou ke hoʻopau i ke kaumaha, ʻo ka manaʻo pono e kūʻai i kāu waiwai pono i kēlā me kēia lā. A hui pū ʻia me ka ʻikepili nui e hōʻiliʻili nei kēia mau hui nui, Silicon Valley mai iā ʻoe, e manaʻo i ka wā e hiki mai ana kahi e kauoha mua ai nā mea kūʻai aku iā ʻoe i nā lole, uila, a me ka hapa nui o nā mea kūʻai aku me ka ʻole o ʻoe e nīnau. ʻO kēia mau hui, a ʻoi aku paha, ʻo kā lākou ʻōnaehana naʻauao artificial e ʻike pono iā ʻoe.

Lilo ka paʻi 3D i Napster aʻe

ʻIke wau i kāu e noʻonoʻo nei, ua hele mai a ua hala ka hype train a puni ka paʻi 3D. A ʻoiai he ʻoiaʻiʻo paha ia i kēia lā, ma Quantumrun, ke kūpaʻa mau nei mākou e pili ana i ka hiki o kēia ʻenehana. ʻO ia wale nō ke manaʻo nei mākou e liʻiliʻi ana ka manawa ma mua o ka lilo ʻana o nā mana ʻoi aʻe o kēia mau mea paʻi i maʻalahi no ka mea nui.

Eia nō naʻe, ma ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā makahiki 2030, e lilo nā mea paʻi 3D i mea hana maʻamau ma kahi kokoke i kēlā me kēia hale, e like me ka umu a i ʻole ka microwave i kēia lā. ʻO ko lākou nui a me nā ʻano mea like ʻole a lākou e paʻi ai e ʻokoʻa ma muli o ka wahi noho a me ka loaʻa kālā o ka mea nona. No ka laʻana, hiki i kēia mau mea paʻi (inā he mau mea hoʻokahi a i ʻole nā hiʻohiʻona loea) ke hoʻohana i nā plastic, metala, a me nā lole e paʻi i nā huahana liʻiliʻi o ka hale, nā ʻāpana pani, nā mea hana maʻalahi, nā mea hoʻonaninani, nā lole maʻalahi, a me nā mea hou aku. . Heck, hiki i kekahi mau mea paʻi ke paʻi i ka meaʻai!

Akā no ka ʻoihana kūʻai kūʻai, e hōʻike ana nā mea paʻi 3D i kahi mana hoʻohaunaele nui loa, e pili ana i ka hale kūʻai a me ke kūʻai pūnaewele.

ʻIke loa, e lilo kēia i kaua waiwai naʻauao. Makemake ka poʻe e paʻi i nā huahana a lākou e ʻike ai ma nā papa a i ʻole nā racks no ka manuahi (a i ʻole ma ka liʻiliʻi, ma ke kumu kūʻai o nā mea paʻi), akā e koi ana nā mea kūʻai aku e kūʻai nā kānaka i kā lākou waiwai ma kā lākou mau hale kūʻai a i ʻole e-stores. ʻO ka hope loa, e like me ka ʻike maikaʻi ʻana o ka ʻoihana mele, e hui pū ʻia nā hopena. Eia hou, e loaʻa i ke kumuhana o nā mea paʻi 3D kāna moʻolelo ponoʻī e hiki mai ana, akā ʻo kā lākou hopena i ka ʻoihana kūʻai nui e like me kēia:

ʻO nā mea kūʻai kūʻai kūikawā i nā waiwai hiki ke paʻi 3D maʻalahi e pani piha i ko lākou mau hale kūʻai kuʻuna i koe a pani iā lākou me nā lumi hōʻikeʻike huahana/lawelawe liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi. E mālama lākou i kā lākou mau kumuwaiwai no ka hoʻokō ʻana i kā lākou kuleana IP (e like me ka ʻoihana mele) a lilo i mea hoʻolālā huahana maʻemaʻe a me nā hui branding, kūʻai aku a hāʻawi i ka laikini i nā poʻe a me nā kikowaena paʻi 3D kūloko i ka pono e paʻi i kā lākou huahana. Ma ke ala, ʻo kēia ʻano i ka lilo ʻana i ka hoʻolālā huahana a me nā ʻoihana branding ka hihia no ka hapa nui o nā hōʻailona kūʻai nui, akā i ka makahiki 2030, e hāʻawi lākou i ka mana āpau i ka hana a me ka hāʻawi ʻana i kā lākou huahana hope.

No nā mea kūʻai kūʻai maikaʻi, ʻaʻole e hoʻopilikia ka paʻi 3D i ko lākou laina lalo ma mua o nā kīkē huahana mai Kina e hana nei i kēia lā. E lilo ana ia i mea hou a ko lakou mau loio IP e kaua aku ai. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻoiai i ka wā e hiki mai ana, e uku nā kānaka no ka mea maoli a e ʻike mau ʻia nā knockoffs no ke ʻano o lākou. Ma nā makahiki 2030, e lilo ana nā mea kūʻai waiwai i nā wahi hope loa e hoʻomaʻamaʻa ai nā kānaka i nā kūʻai kuʻuna (ʻo ia hoʻi ka hoʻāʻo ʻana a kūʻai ʻana i nā huahana mai ka hale kūʻai).

Ma waena o kēia mau mea koʻikoʻi ʻelua, aia nā mea kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai kūpono ʻole i hiki ke paʻi 3D maʻalahi - hiki i kēia mau mea ke komo i nā kāmaʻa, nā huahana lāʻau, nā lole lole paʻakikī, nā mea uila, a pēlā aku. ka mālama ʻana i kahi pūnaewele nui o nā lumi hōʻike hōʻailona, ka pale IP a me ka laikini ʻana i kā lākou laina huahana maʻalahi, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka R&D e hana i nā huahana i ʻimi ʻia ʻaʻole hiki i ka lehulehu ke paʻi maʻalahi ma ka home.

Hoʻopau ʻo Automation i ka globalization a localizes retail

ʻO kā mākou ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ai o ka hana series, hele mākou i nā kikoʻī nui e pili ana pehea ʻO ka automation ka outsourcing hou, pehea e hoʻonui ai nā robots i ka lawe ʻana i nā hana kola polū a me ke keʻokeʻo ma mua o nā hui hana i hoʻopuka ʻia ma waho i nā makahiki 1980 a me 90.

ʻO ke ʻano o kēia, ʻaʻole pono nā mea hana huahana e hoʻokumu i nā hale hana ma kahi maʻalahi o ka hana (ʻaʻohe kanaka e hana maʻalahi e like me nā robots). Akā, e hoʻoikaika ʻia nā mea hana huahana e hoʻokumu i kā lākou hale hana kokoke i kā lākou mea kūʻai hope e hōʻemi i kā lākou uku hoʻouna. ʻO ka hopena, ʻo nā hui āpau i hoʻopuka i kā lākou hana ma waho i ka makahiki 90s e hoʻihoʻi i kā lākou hana ʻana i loko o ko lākou mau ʻāina i kūkulu ʻia e ka hopena o 2020s a i ka 2030s mua.

Mai kahi hiʻohiʻona, ʻo nā robots me ka ʻole o ka uku, hoʻohana ʻia e ka mana o ka lā manuahi, e hana i nā waiwai ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o kēlā me kēia manawa o ka mōʻaukala kanaka. E hoʻohui i kēia holomua me nā lawelawe kaʻa kaʻa a me nā lawelawe hoʻouna e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i nā kumukūʻai o ka hoʻouna ʻana, a e noho mākou a pau i kahi honua kahi e lilo ai nā mea kūʻai aku i mea liʻiliʻi a nui.

E ʻae kēia hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mea kūʻai aku e kūʻai aku ma nā kumukūʻai hohonu a i ʻole ma nā palena kiʻekiʻe. Eia kekahi, no ka pili kokoke loa i ka mea kūʻai hope, ma kahi o nā pōʻai hoʻomohala huahana pono e hoʻolālā ʻia i ʻeono mahina a hiki i ka makahiki, hiki ke noʻonoʻo ʻia nā laina lole hou a i ʻole nā mea kūʻai aku i ka manaʻo, hoʻolālā ʻia, hana ʻia, a kūʻai ʻia ma nā hale kūʻai i loko o hoʻokahi a ʻekolu mahina— e like me ka wikiwiki wikiwiki i kēia lā, akā ma nā steroids a no kēlā me kēia ʻano huahana.

ʻO ka haʻahaʻa, ʻoiaʻiʻo, inā lawe nā robots i ka hapa nui o kā mākou mau hana, pehea lā e loaʻa ai i kekahi ke kālā e kūʻai i kekahi mea?

Eia hou, i kā mākou Future of Work series, wehewehe mākou pehea e koi ʻia ai nā aupuni e hiki mai ana e hana i kekahi ʻano o ka Ka HoʻokumuʻIke Palena (UBI) i mea e pale aku ai i ka haunaele lehulehu a me ka hooponopono kaiaulu. ʻO ka ʻōlelo maʻalahi, ʻo ka UBI kahi loaʻa kālā i hāʻawi ʻia i nā kamaʻāina āpau (waiwai a ʻilihune) hoʻokahi a me ke ʻano ʻole, ʻo ia hoʻi me ka ʻole o ka hoʻāʻo ʻana a i ʻole koi hana. Na ke aupuni e hāʻawi kālā iā ʻoe i kēlā me kēia mahina.

I ka manawa e noho ai, e loaʻa i ka hapa nui o nā kamaʻāina ka manawa kaʻawale (ʻaʻole hana) a me ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā. ʻO ka moʻolelo o kēia ʻano mea kūʻai e pili pono me nā ʻōpio a me nā ʻoihana ʻōpio, kahi ʻike mea kūʻai aku i ʻike maikaʻi ʻia e nā mea kūʻai aku.

ʻOi aku ka nui o nā brand i ka wā e hiki mai ana

Ma waena o nā mea paʻi 3D a me ka hana ʻenehana, ka hana kūloko, ʻaʻohe wahi e hele ai ke kumukūʻai o nā waiwai i ka wā e hiki mai ana. ʻOiai ʻo kēia mau holomua ʻenehana e lawe mai i ke kanaka i ka waiwai o ka nui a me ke kumu kūʻai hoʻemi o ke ola no kēlā me kēia kāne, wahine, a me nā keiki, no ka hapa nui o nā mea kūʻai aku, ʻo ka waena o ka makahiki 2030 e hōʻike i kahi manawa deflationary mau loa.

ʻO ka hope loa, e uhaʻi ka wā e hiki mai ana i nā mea pale e hiki ai i ka poʻe ke kūʻai i kekahi mea mai kēlā me kēia wahi, mai kēlā me kēia, i kēlā me kēia manawa, i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa, pinepine me ka lawe ʻana i ka lā hoʻokahi. Ma kekahi ʻano, e lilo nā mea i mea ʻole. A he pōʻino ia no nā ʻoihana ʻo Silicon Valley, e like me Amazon, e hiki ai i kēia hana hoʻololi.

Eia naʻe, i ka wā e lilo ai ke kumukūʻai o nā mea he mea liʻiliʻi, e hopohopo nui ka poʻe i nā moʻolelo ma hope o nā mea a me nā lawelawe a lākou e kūʻai ai, a ʻo ka mea nui aku, ke kūkulu ʻana i nā pilina me nā mea ma hope o kēia mau huahana a me nā lawelawe. I kēia manawa, e lilo hou ana ka branding i mōʻī a ʻo kēlā mau mea kūʻai aku e hoʻomaopopo ana e holomua. ʻO nā kāmaʻa Nike, no ka laʻana, ke kūʻai aku nei i kekahi mau kālā e hana ai, akā kūʻai ʻia ʻoi aku ma mua o hoʻokahi haneli ma ke kūʻai aku. A mai hoʻomaka iaʻu ma Apple.

No ka hoʻokūkū, e hoʻomau kēia mau mea kūʻai nui e ʻimi i nā ala hou e hoʻopili ai i nā mea kūʻai aku i ka wā lōʻihi a hoʻopaʻa iā lākou i kahi kaiāulu o nā poʻe like. ʻO kēia wale nō ke ala e hiki ai i nā mea kūʻai aku ke kūʻai aku ma ke kumukūʻai a me ka hakakā ʻana i nā pilikia deflationary o ka lā.

No laila, aia ʻoe, e nānā i ka wā e hiki mai ana o ke kūʻai aku a me ke kūʻai aku. Hiki iā mākou ke hele i mua ma ke kamaʻilio ʻana e pili ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana ke kūʻai ʻana i nā waiwai kikohoʻe ke hoʻomaka mākou a pau e hoʻolilo i ka hapa nui o ko mākou ola i kahi ʻoiaʻiʻo cyber like me Matrix, akā e haʻalele mākou i kēlā no kekahi manawa.

I ka hopena o ka lā, kūʻai mākou i ka meaʻai ke pololi mākou. Kūʻai mākou i nā huahana maʻamau a me nā lako e hōʻoluʻolu i ko mākou mau home. Kūʻai mākou i nā lole e mahana a hōʻike i ko mākou mau manaʻo, nā waiwai, a me nā ʻano pilikino ma waho. Kūʻai mākou ma ke ʻano he ʻano leʻaleʻa a ʻike. E like me ka hoʻololi ʻana o kēia mau ʻano āpau i nā ala e ʻae ai nā mea kūʻai aku iā mākou e kūʻai aku, ʻaʻole e loli nā kumu i kēlā nui.