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ʻO India a me Pakistan; wi a me nā moku: Geopolitics of Climate Change

ʻO David Tal, mea hoʻopuka, Futurist
@KekahaNaipo
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Poalua, 09/15/2020 - 11:40

ʻO kēia wānana maikaʻi ʻole e kālele ana i nā geopolitics India a me Pakistani e pili ana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau ma waena o nā makahiki o 2040 a me 2050. Ke heluhelu nei ʻoe, e ʻike ʻoe i ʻelua mau mokuʻāina hoʻokūkū e hakakā nei me ka ʻino ʻole o ka home i ka wā e hao ai ka loli i kā lākou. hiki ke hanai i ko lakou mau heluna ulu wikiwiki. E ʻike ʻoe i ʻelua mau hoa paio e hoʻāʻo nui e paʻa i ka mana ma o ka hoʻoulu ʻana i ka lapalapa o ka huhū lehulehu i kekahi i kekahi, e hoʻonohonoho ana i ke kahua no ke kaua nuklea āpau. I ka hopena, e ʻike ʻoe i nā hui kuʻikahi i manaʻo ʻole ʻia e komo i kahi holocaust nuklea, ʻoiai e paipai ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka nuklea ma waena o ka Middle East.

Akā, ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana, e wehewehe kākou i kekahi mau mea. ʻAʻole i huki ʻia kēia kiʻi paʻi-ʻo kēia mua geopolitical o India a me Pakistan. Hoʻokumu ʻia nā mea a pau āu e heluhelu ai ma muli o ka hana o nā wānana aupuni i loaʻa i ka lehulehu mai ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me United Kingdom, a me nā ʻike mai kahi pūʻulu manaʻo pilikino a pili i ke aupuni, a me ka hana a nā mea nūpepa, me Gywnne. Dyer, he mea kākau alakaʻi ma kēia kahua. Ua helu ʻia nā loulou i ka hapa nui o nā kumu i hoʻohana ʻia ma ka hopena.

Ma luna o kēlā, ua hoʻokumu ʻia kēia snapshot i nā manaʻo penei:

ʻO nā hoʻopukapuka aupuni o ke ao holoʻokoʻa e kaupalena nui a hoʻohuli paha i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau e noho mālie a ʻaʻole loa.
ʻAʻole hoʻāʻo ʻia i ka geoengineering planetary.
Ka hana lā a ka lā ʻaʻole hāʻule i lalo kona kūlana i kēia manawa, a laila e ho'ēmi ana i ka mahana honua.
ʻAʻohe hanana koʻikoʻi i hana ʻia i ka ikehu fusion, a ʻaʻohe hoʻopukapuka nui i hana ʻia ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa i loko o ka desalination aupuni a me nā ʻoihana mahiʻai kūwaho.
I ka makahiki 2040, e holomua ana ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau a hiki i kahi pae i ʻoi aku ka nui o ke kinoea greenhouse (GHG) i ka lewa ma mua o 450 ʻāpana o ka miliona.
Heluhelu ʻoe i kā mākou hoʻomaka ʻana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau a me nā hopena maikaʻi ʻole e loaʻa iā mākou ma kā mākou wai inu, mahiʻai, kūlanakauhale kahakai, a me nā mea kanu a me nā holoholona inā ʻaʻohe hana e kūʻē iā ia.

Me kēia mau manaʻo noʻonoʻo, e ʻoluʻolu e heluhelu i ka wānana aʻe me ka noʻonoʻo hāmama.

Kaua wai

ʻAʻohe wahi ma ka Honua i ʻoi aku ka hoʻoweliweli ʻana o ke kaua nuklea āpau ma mua o waena o India a me Pakistan. ʻO ke kumu: ka wai, a i ʻole ka nele.

Loaʻa ka nui o Central Asia i kona wai mai nā muliwai ʻo ʻAsia e kahe ana mai ka Himalayas a me ka pāpū Tibet. ʻO kēia nā muliwai Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, a me Yangtze. I nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, e hoʻoneʻe mālie ʻia ka hoʻololi ʻana o ke aniau i nā glaciers kahiko e noho ana ma luna o kēia mau pae mauna. I ka wā mua, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka wela e hoʻoulu ai i nā makahiki he mau makahiki o ke kahe nui ʻana o ke kauwela i ka wā e hoʻoheheʻe ai nā glaciers a me ka hau hau i loko o nā muliwai, e pehu ana i nā ʻāina a puni.

Akā, i ka hiki ʻana mai o ka lā (i ka hopena o nā makahiki 2040) i ka wā e hemo loa ai ka Himalayas i ko lākou mau glaciers, e hāʻule nā kahawai ʻeono i ʻōlelo ʻia ma luna nei i ke aka o ko lākou mau mea kahiko. ʻO ka nui o ka wai i hilinaʻi ʻia e nā lāhui ma waena o ʻAsia no nā millennia e emi loa. ʻO ka hope loa, ʻo kēia mau muliwai ke kikowaena o ke kūpaʻa o nā ʻāina hou a pau o ka ʻāina. ʻO kā lākou hāʻule ʻana e piʻi aʻe i ke ʻano o nā ʻāʻī i paila no nā makahiki he mau makahiki.

Nā kumu o ka hakakā

ʻAʻole e hōʻeha nui ʻia nā kahawai ʻo India, no ka mea, ʻo ka hapa nui o kāna mau mea kanu i hānai i ka ua. ʻO Pakistan, ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻo ia ka pūnaewele nui loa o ka honua o ka ʻāina irrigated, e hiki ai i ka mahiʻai ke hiki i kahi ʻāina i ʻole he wao nahele. Hoʻoulu ʻia ʻekolu hapahā o kāna meaʻai me ka wai i huki ʻia mai ka ʻōnaehana muliwai ʻo Indus, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kahawai ʻo Indus, Jhelum, a me Chenab i hānai i ka glacier. He pōʻino ke kahe o ka wai mai kēia kahawai, ʻoiai ke manaʻo ʻia e ulu ka heluna Pakistan mai 188 miliona ma 2015 a i 254 miliona ma 2040.

Mai ka Māhele ʻana i ka makahiki 1947, ʻelima o nā muliwai ʻeono e hānai ana i ka ʻōnaehana muliwai Indus (e hilinaʻi ʻia ʻo Pakistan) aia ma ka ʻāina i hoʻomalu ʻia e India. ʻO ka hapa nui o nā muliwai i ko lākou poʻo ma ka mokuʻāina ʻo Kashmir, kahi ʻāina i hakakā mau ʻia. Me ka hoʻolako ʻana o Pakistan i ka wai i hoʻomalu mua ʻia e kāna hoʻokūkū nui loa, ʻaʻole hiki ke pale ʻia ka hakakā.

ʻAʻohe palekana

ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka wai e hiki ʻole ai ka mahiʻai ma Pakistan. I kēia manawa, e manaʻo ʻo India i kahi crunch like me ka ulu ʻana o kona heluna kanaka mai 1.2 biliona i kēia lā a kokoke i 1.6 biliona e 2040.

Ua ʻike ʻia kahi noiʻi a ka hui manaʻo noʻonoʻo India Integrated Research and Action for Development i ka piʻi ʻana o ʻelua degere Celsius i ka awelika wela o ka honua e hōʻemi i ka hana meaʻai India ma 25 pakeneka. ʻO ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau ka mea e ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o ke kau wela (e hilinaʻi nui ʻia ana e ka poʻe mahiʻai), ʻoiai e hoʻopilikia ana i ka ulu ʻana o nā mea kanu India hou no ka mea ʻaʻole ulu maikaʻi ka nui i nā mahana wela.

ʻo kahi laʻana, nā haʻawina i mālama ʻia e ke Kulanui Heluhelu ma luna o ʻelua o nā ʻano laiki i ulu nui ʻia, ʻo Indica a me uka ʻo Japonica, ua ʻike ʻia ua pilikia loa nā mea ʻelua i nā wela kiʻekiʻe. Inā ʻoi aku ka mahana ma mua o 35 degere i ko lākou wā pua, lilo nā mea kanu i sterile, hāʻawi liʻiliʻi, inā loaʻa, nā kīʻaha. Nui nā ʻāina wela a me ʻAsia kahi o ka laiki ka meaʻai nui e waiho nei ma ka ʻaoʻao o kēia wahi wela o Goldilocks a ʻo ka hoʻomehana hou aʻe he pōʻino.

ʻO nā kumu ʻē aʻe e hiki ke komo i loko o ka pāʻani ʻo ia ke ʻano o kēia manawa o ka papa waena o India e ulu wikiwiki ana i ka manaʻo o ke Komohana no ka nui o ka meaʻai. Ke noʻonoʻo nei ʻoe i kēia lā, ʻaʻole i ulu nui ʻo India e hānai i kona heluna kanaka a ma ka makahiki 2040, ʻaʻole hiki i nā mākeke palaoa honua ke uhi i nā hemahema o ka ʻohi ʻana; e hoʻomaka ana nā mea hana no ka hoʻohaunaele lehulehu.

(Meka ʻaoʻao: ʻO kēia haunaele e hoʻonāwaliwali loa i ke aupuni waena, e wehe ana i ka puka no nā hui kūloko a me ka mokuʻāina e hopu i ka mana a koi hou aku i ka mana kūʻokoʻa ma luna o ko lākou mau ʻāina.)

ʻO nā mea a pau i ʻōlelo ʻia, ʻo kēlā me kēia pilikia pilikia o ka meaʻai e manaʻo ʻia e kū mai ʻo India, e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o Pakistan. Me kā lākou wai mahiʻai i hoʻokumu ʻia mai nā kahawai maloʻo, ʻaʻole hiki i ka ʻoihana mahiʻai Pakistan ke hoʻohua i ka meaʻai e lawa ai ka makemake. I ka manawa pōkole, e piʻi ke kumukūʻai meaʻai, e pahū ka huhū o ka lehulehu, a e loaʻa i ka ʻaoʻao aliʻi o Pakistan kahi kao maʻalahi ma ka hoʻohuli ʻana i ka huhū iā India-ma hope o nā mea a pau, hele mua ko lākou mau muliwai ma India a hoʻohuli ʻo India i ka pakeneka nui no kā lākou pono mahiʻai. .

Ka politika kaua

Ke hoʻomaka nei ka pilikia o ka wai a me ka meaʻai e hoʻopau i India a me Pakistan mai loko mai, e hoʻāʻo nā aupuni o nā ʻāina ʻelua e kuhikuhi i ka huhū lehulehu i kekahi. E ʻike nā ʻāina a puni ka honua i kēia hele ʻana mai hoʻokahi mile a e hana nā alakaʻi o ka honua i nā hoʻoikaika nui e komo i ka maluhia no ke kumu maʻalahi: ʻo ke kaua holoʻokoʻa ma waena o India desperated a me Pakistan flailing e piʻi i loko o ke kaua nuklea me ka lanakila ʻole.

ʻO ka mea nāna e hahau mua, e loaʻa i nā ʻāina ʻelua ka nui o ke ahi nuklea e hoʻopalahalaha i nā kikowaena heluna nui o kēlā me kēia. He 48 mau hola ka lōʻihi o ia kaua, a i ʻole a pau nā papa nuklea o nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua. I loko o ka liʻiliʻi o 12 mau hola, e hoʻoheheʻe ʻia ka hapalua miliona mau kānaka ma lalo o nā pahū nuklea, me kahi 100-200 miliona e make koke ana ma hope o ka hōʻike ʻana i ka radiation a me ka nele o nā kumuwaiwai. E hoʻopau mau ʻia ka mana a me nā mea uila ma ka hapa nui o nā ʻāina ʻelua mai nā pahū electromagnetic o kēlā mau poʻo kaua nuklea liʻiliʻi i hoʻopaʻa ʻia e kēlā me kēia ʻaoʻao a me nā pale ballistic e pili ana i ka missile. ʻO ka mea hope loa, ʻo ka hapa nui o ka nuklea hāʻule (ka mea radioactive i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i ka lewa kiʻekiʻe) e noho a hoʻoulu i nā pilikia olakino nui ma luna o nā ʻāina a puni e like me Iran a me Afghanistan i ke komohana a me Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, a me Kina i ka hikina.

ʻAʻole e ʻae ʻia ka hiʻohiʻona ma luna i nā mea pāʻani honua nui, ʻo ia ka 2040s ʻo US, Kina, a me Russia. E komo lākou a pau, e hāʻawi i ka pūʻali koa, ka ikehu, a me ke kōkua meaʻai. ʻO Pakistan, ʻo ia ka mea makemake loa, e hoʻohana i kēia kūlana no ka nui o ke kōkua waiwai e like me ka hiki, aʻo India e koi like. E piʻi paha ʻo Rūsia me ka lawe ʻana mai i nā meaʻai. E hāʻawi aku ʻo Kina i nā ʻenehana ikehu hou a me Thorium. A e kau aku ʻo ʻAmelika i kāna pūʻali koa a me ka ea, e hāʻawi ana i nā hōʻoiaʻiʻo pūʻali koa i nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua a me ka hōʻoia ʻana ʻaʻole e hele aku ka missile ballistic nuklea i ka palena o India-Pakistani.

Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole hiki mai kēia kākoʻo me ka ʻole o ke kaula. Ke makemake nei e pale mau i ke kūlana, e koi ana kēia mau mana i nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua e hāʻawi i kā lākou mau mea kaua nuklea no ke kōkua hoʻomau. ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ʻaʻole e lele kēia me Pakistan. E hana ana kona mau lima nuklea i mea hōʻoia no ka paʻa o loko ma o ka meaʻai, ka ikehu, a me ke kōkua koa a lākou e hoʻopuka ai. Me ka ʻole o lākou, ʻaʻohe manawa o Pakistan i ke kaua maʻamau e hiki mai ana me India a ʻaʻohe puʻupuʻu kūʻai no ke kōkua mau ʻana mai ka honua o waho.

ʻAʻole e ʻike ʻia kēia paʻa e nā mokuʻāina Arab e puni ana, e hana ikaika kēlā me kēia e kiʻi i nā mea kaua nuklea no lākou iho e hoʻopaʻa i nā ʻaelike kōkua like mai nā mana honua. ʻO kēia piʻi ʻana e lilo i ka Middle East i ʻoi aku ka paʻa, a e koi paha i ka ʻIseraʻela e hoʻonui i kāna mau papahana nuklea a me nā pūʻali koa.

I kēia ao e hiki mai ana, ʻaʻohe mea maʻalahi.

Nā waikahe a me nā mea mahuka

Ma waho aʻe o nā kaua, pono mākou e hoʻomaopopo i ka nui o ka hopena o ka hopena o ka wā ma ka ʻāina. E luku ʻia nā kūlanakauhale kahakai o India e nā ʻino ʻino nui, e hoʻoneʻe ana i nā miliona o nā kamaʻāina ʻilihune mai ko lākou mau home. I kēia manawa, ʻo Bangladesh ka mea i hōʻeha loa. ʻO ka hapakolu hema o kona ʻāina, kahi 60 miliona e noho nei i kēia manawa, e noho ana ma lalo o ka ʻilikai; i ka piʻi ʻana o ka ʻilikai, e nalowale ana kēlā ʻāina holoʻokoʻa ma lalo o ke kai. E hoʻokomo kēia iā India i kahi paʻakikī, no ka mea, pono ia e kaupaona i kāna mau kuleana kanaka e pili ana i kāna mau pono palekana maoli no ka pale ʻana i nā miliona o ka poʻe mahuka Bangladeshi mai ke kahe ʻana i kona palena.

No Bangladesh, ʻoi aku ka nui o ke ola a me nā ola i nalowale, ʻaʻohe o lākou hewa. ʻO ka hope loa, ʻo kēia nalo ʻana o ka ʻāina nui loa o ko lākou ʻāina ʻo ia ka hewa o Kina a me ke Komohana, mahalo i kā lākou alakaʻi ʻana i ka hoʻohaumia ʻana i ke aniau.

Nā kumu o ka manaʻolana

He wānana kāu mea i heluhelu ai, ʻaʻole he ʻoiaʻiʻo. Eia kekahi, he wānana i kākau ʻia i ka makahiki 2015. He nui nā mea hiki a hiki ke hana ʻia ma waena o kēia manawa a me nā makahiki 2040 e hoʻoponopono ai i nā hopena o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau, ʻo ka hapa nui o ia mau mea e wehewehe ʻia ma ka hopena moʻo. ʻO ka mea nui, hiki ke pale ʻia nā wānana i hōʻike ʻia ma luna me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻenehana o kēia lā a me ka hanauna o kēia lā.

No ka ʻike hou aku e pili ana i ka hopena o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau i nā wahi ʻē aʻe o ka honua a i ʻole ke aʻo ʻana e pili ana i nā mea e hiki ke hana e hoʻolohi a hoʻohuli hou i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau, e heluhelu i kā mākou moʻolelo no ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau ma o nā loulou ma lalo nei: