Zam tsis txhob muaj riam phom muaj kev vam meej: Cov khoom siv raw yog qhov kub kub tshiab

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• Cuaj hlis 5, 2023

Kev nkag siab tseem ceeb

Lub teb chaws thiab cov lag luam tawm tsam tiv thaiv lawv tus kheej los ntawm ntau dhau nyob ntawm kev xa khoom rau cov khoom siv raw. Cov kev txwv kev lag luam hauv Asmeskas-Tuam Tshoj thiab Russia-Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb tau qhia tias nws txaus ntshai npaum li cas rau kev cia siab rau cov khoom xa tawm no thiab qhov kev sib koom ua ke no puas tuaj yeem ua rau tawg. Tej zaum tsoomfwv yuav xav tau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ruaj ntseg thiab nqis peev hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev lossis kev sib koom tes thoob ntiaj teb kom ruaj ntseg nkag mus rau cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb.

Zam kev siv riam phom nyob ntawm cov ntsiab lus

Raws li qhov nce ntawm geopolitical tensions thiab kev siv riam phom, cov teb chaws thiab cov lag luam maj nrawm nrhiav lwm txoj hauv kev rau tus kheej. Kev txwv kev lag luam thev naus laus zis hauv Asmeskas-Tuam Tshoj tau txhawb nqa Tuam Tshoj txhawm rau txhim kho nws cov kev lag luam hauv tsev, tab sis qhov kev soj ntsuam no yuav ua rau muaj teeb meem loj rau nws txoj kev lag luam kev lag luam raws li cov lag luam loj hauv ntiaj teb xws li Apple thiab Google hloov kev tsim khoom mus rau Is Nrias teb thiab Nyab Laj. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Russia-Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb tau nthuav tawm qhov kev cia siab hnyav rau Lavxias xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis xws li txhuas thiab npib tsib xee, ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb rau cov peev txheej hauv zos. 

Lub caij no, xyoo 2022, European Commission tau tshaj tawm txoj cai lij choj, Txoj Cai Tseem Ceeb Raw Material, los hais txog kev vam khom rau Tuam Tshoj rau cov khoom siv raw thiab ntxiv dag zog rau cov saw hlau ntau zog. Raws li lub ntiaj teb pivots rau ntsuab thiab cov kev daws teeb meem digital, qhov xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom tseem ceeb tau kwv yees tias yuav nce siab heev. Lub Commission tau cia siab tias yuav nce tsib npaug ntawm qhov kev thov los ntawm 2030. Ib yam li ntawd, World Bank qhov kev kwv yees hais txog qhov kev xav no, kwv yees li tsib npaug ntawm kev thov thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm 2050.

Cov kev daws teeb meem tshiab, xws li ntug hiav txwv hiav txwv mining thiab kev lag luam pov tseg rov ua dua tshiab, tab tom tshawb nrhiav, nrog cov tuam txhab xws li Anactisis ua tus nqi hloov pauv pov tseg rau hauv cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb xws li scandium. Thawj Tswj Hwm Joe Biden's Executive Order 14107 qhia txog qhov kev hloov pauv no rau kev ruaj ntseg peev txheej, tswj xyuas kev soj ntsuam ntawm Asmeskas kev vam khom rau cov neeg tawm tsam rau cov zaub mov tseem ceeb. Raws li lub ntiaj teb cov saw hlau hloov pauv, cov teb chaws xws li Mexico tau tawm los ua cov neeg koom tes zoo, muaj peev xwm muab tau ntau yam ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb.

Kev cuam tshuam

Cov neeg siv khoom yuav muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi thiab muaj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob tsheb (EV), thiab cov kev daws teeb meem ntsuab. Cov khoom no, ib qho tseem ceeb rau digital-ntsuab convergence, hnyav heev cia siab rau cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb xws li lithium, cobalt, thiab tsis tshua muaj ntiaj teb cov ntsiab lus. Ib qho kev hloov pauv hauv lawv cov khoom yuav ua rau tus nqi nce lossis cov khoom tsis txaus. Automakers zoo li Tesla, uas muaj kev vam khom rau cov ntaub ntawv no rau EV ntau lawm, tej zaum yuav xav rov xav txog lawv cov tswv yim kev lag luam, tsim kho txoj hauv kev tshiab los muab cov ntaub ntawv no lossis tsim lwm txoj hauv kev.

Cov tuam txhab lag luam tuaj yeem ntsib kev cuam tshuam hauv lawv cov saw hlau xa khoom thiab nce nqi ua haujlwm. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no tseem tuaj yeem txhawb kev tsim kho tshiab. Piv txwv li, Texas-based Noveon Magnetics rov siv dua cov hlau nplaum hauv ntiaj teb uas tsis tshua muaj los ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob pov tseg, muab cov khoom siv ib puag ncig thiab muaj peev xwm ruaj khov dua rau kev siv cov ntaub ntawv tshiab. Ib yam li ntawd, qhov kev hloov pauv no tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev loj hlob hauv kev lag luam xws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb, ua rau muaj kev nce qib hauv kev tshawb fawb thiab kev txhim kho rau hauv cov khoom siv hluavtaws.

Rau tsoomfwv, qhov kev thov nce ntxiv rau cov khoom siv raw tseem ceeb qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov peev txheej, xav tau cov tswv yim zoo rau kev tswj xyuas kom ruaj khov, kev ncaj ncees, thiab ib puag ncig cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov. Tsoomfwv yuav xav tau nqis peev ntau dua hauv kev lag luam mining hauv tsev lossis tsim kev sib koom tes thoob ntiaj teb tshiab kom tau txais kev nkag mus rau cov peev txheej no. Ib qho piv txwv yog tsoomfwv Australian tau cog lus nrog Asmeskas xyoo 2019 los koom ua ke mine thiab tsim cov ntsiab lus tsis tshua muaj hauv ntiaj teb. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev thov nce siab tuaj yeem txhawb nqa cov cai txhawb nqa rov ua dua tshiab thiab kev lag luam ncig, txo qis kev vam khom rau txawv teb chaws.

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev zam kev siv riam phom

Kev cuam tshuam dav dav ntawm kev zam kev siv riam phom tuaj yeem suav nrog: 

• Ua kom muaj kev paub txog kev noj qab haus huv thiab kev ua haujlwm nyob ib puag ncig lub luag haujlwm ntawm kev xa khoom thiab kev coj ncaj ncees, cuam tshuam rau cov neeg siv khoom tus cwj pwm thiab kev nyiam.
• Kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev nqis peev nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws uas muaj ntau reserves ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb, ua rau muaj kev tshwm sim ntawm tshiab economic powerhouses thiab hloov lub ntiaj teb no dynamics.
• Cov nom tswv tau ntsib kev sib tw hnyav ntxiv thiab cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw ntawm kev nkag mus thiab tswj cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb, ua rau muaj kev sib koom ua ke, kev tsis sib haum xeeb, lossis kev sib tham uas tsim lub ntiaj teb kev nom kev tswv thiab kev sib raug zoo thoob ntiaj teb.
• Qhov xav tau rau cov neeg ua haujlwm txawj ua haujlwm hauv mining, recycling, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb kev lag luam ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm cov pej xeem, vim cov neeg ua haujlwm tsiv mus rau cov cheeb tsam uas muaj kev ua haujlwm hauv cov haujlwm no.
• Kev ua haujlwm hauv mining, recycling, thiab kev tsim cov khoom siv siab heev, thaum cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam uas nyob ntawm cov peev txheej uas tsis tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv tuaj yeem raug tshem tawm.
• Ua kom pom tseeb ntawm kev ua phooj ywg zoo ib puag ncig mining, kev siv peev txheej, thiab cov qauv kev lag luam ncig, txhawb kev txuag ecological thiab txo cov kev cuam tshuam ib puag ncig ntawm kev rho tawm thiab cov txheej txheem ntau lawm.
• Kev faib tsis sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom tseem ceeb thoob ntiaj teb ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam tsis sib xws ntawm cov teb chaws uas muaj kev nkag mus rau ntau cov peev txheej thiab cov uas muaj kev vam khom ntau ntawm kev xa khoom.
• Kev xav tau kev ruaj ntseg thiab muaj ntau hom khoom siv rau cov khoom siv raw tseem ceeb txhawb kev sib koom tes thiab kev sib koom tes ntawm tsoomfwv, kev lag luam, thiab cov koom haum tshawb fawb, txhawb kev sib koom kev paub, kev nce qib thev naus laus zis, thiab kev sib koom ua ke.

Cov lus nug los xav txog

• Cov cai dab tsi uas koj tsoomfwv tau tsim los txo qis kev cia siab rau lwm lub tebchaws rau cov khoom siv raw?
• Yuav ua li cas lwm txoj hauv kev los txhawb kev tsim cov khoom tseem ceeb hauv zos?