Quantumrun

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Yuav ua li cas yav tom ntej tech yuav cuam tshuam cov khw muag khoom hauv 2030 | Yav tom ntej ntawm khw muag khoom P4

David Tal, Publisher, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Xov, 09/14/2020 - 09:51

Cov neeg koom tes hauv khw muag khoom paub ntau ntxiv txog koj qhov kev nyiam tshaj li koj cov phooj ywg ze tshaj plaws. Kev tuag ntawm tus neeg khaws nyiaj thiab nce ntawm kev sib txhuam tsis khoom. Kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cib thiab mortar nrog e-lag luam. Txog tam sim no nyob rau hauv peb lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm Retail series, peb tau hais txog ntau qhov kev tshwm sim tshiab uas tau teeb tsa los hloov kho koj qhov kev yuav khoom yav tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, cov kev kwv yees nyob ze no tsis tshua muaj kev sib piv rau qhov kev yuav khoom yuav hloov pauv li cas hauv 2030s thiab 2040s.

Nyob rau ntawm tshooj no, peb yuav dhia mus rau hauv ntau yam tech, tsoom fwv, thiab kev lag luam uas yuav hloov kho cov khw muag khoom nyob rau ntau xyoo tom ntej.

5G, IoT, thiab ntse txhua yam

Los ntawm nruab nrab-2020s, 5G internet yuav dhau los ua tus qauv tshiab ntawm cov teb chaws muaj kev lag luam. Thiab txawm hais tias qhov no yuav tsis zoo li qhov teeb meem loj, koj yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias kev sib txuas 5G yuav pab tau yuav dhia thiab cia siab tshaj tus qauv 4G qee qhov peb nyiam hnub no.

3G muab cov duab rau peb. 4G muab peb cov video. Tab sis 5G yog unbelievably qis latency yuav ua rau lub ntiaj teb tsis muaj sia nyob ib puag ncig peb los ciaj sia - nws yuav ua rau muaj kev ua neej nyob VR, ntau lub tsheb muaj kev tswj hwm tus kheej, thiab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, kev taug qab ntawm txhua lub sijhawm sib txuas. Hauv lwm lo lus, 5G yuav pab txhawb kev nce qib Internet ntawm tej yam uas (IoT).

Raws li tau tham thoob plaws peb Yav tom ntej ntawm Internet series, IoT yuav koom nrog kev txhim kho lossis tsim cov khoos phis tawj me me lossis cov sensors rau txhua yam nyob ib puag ncig peb, tso cai rau txhua yam khoom hauv peb ib puag ncig wirelessly sib txuas lus nrog txhua yam khoom.

Hauv koj lub neej, IoT tuaj yeem tso cai rau koj cov thawv ntim khoom noj 'tham' nrog koj lub tub yees, qhia nws paub thaum twg koj noj zaub mov tsawg. Tom qab ntawd koj lub tub yees tuaj yeem sib txuas lus nrog koj tus as khauj Amazon thiab txiav txim siab cov khoom noj tshiab uas tseem nyob hauv koj daim phiaj siv nyiaj txhua hli. Thaum hais tias cov khoom noj khoom haus tau sau rau ntawm lub khw muag khoom noj nyob ze, Amazon tuaj yeem sib txuas lus nrog koj lub tsheb tsav tus kheej, ua rau nws tsav tsheb tawm ntawm koj tus kheej mus nqa khoom noj. Lub tsev khaws khoom neeg hlau yuav nqa koj lub pob khoom noj thiab thauj nws mus rau hauv lub tsheb ntawm koj lub tsheb hauv vib nas this ntawm nws rub mus rau hauv cov khoom thauj khoom. Koj lub tsheb yuav tsav nws tus kheej rov qab mus rau koj lub tsev thiab ceeb toom koj lub computer hauv tsev ntawm nws tuaj txog. Los ntawm qhov ntawd, Apple's Siri, Amazon's Alexa, lossis Google's AI yuav tshaj tawm tias koj cov khoom noj tau tuaj txog thiab mus nqa nws ntawm koj lub cev. (Nco ntsoov tias tej zaum peb yuav plam ob peb kauj ruam hauv qhov ntawd, tab sis koj tau txais cov ntsiab lus.)

Thaum 5G thiab IoT yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua thiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm kev lag luam, nroog, thiab lub tebchaws raug tswj hwm li cas, rau tus neeg nruab nrab, cov kev siv thev naus laus zis tshiab no tuaj yeem tshem tawm qhov kev ntxhov siab, txawm tias qhov xav tau los yuav koj cov khoom tseem ceeb txhua hnub. Thiab ua ke nrog cov ntaub ntawv loj tag nrho cov loj loj no, Silicon Valley cov tuam txhab tau sau los ntawm koj, cia siab tias yuav muaj lub neej yav tom ntej uas cov khw muag khoom xaj ua ntej koj cov khaub ncaws, khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab lwm yam khoom siv feem ntau yam tsis tas koj yuav tsum nug. Cov tuam txhab no, lossis tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, lawv cov tshuab txawj ntse txawj ntse yuav paub koj zoo.

3D luam ntawv dhau los ua Napster tom ntej

Kuv paub tias koj tab tom xav li cas, lub tsheb ciav hlau hype ncig 3D luam ntawv tau tuaj thiab ploj mus lawm. Thiab thaum uas tej zaum yuav muaj tseeb niaj hnub no, ntawm Quantumrun, peb tseem bullish txog qhov tech lub peev xwm yav tom ntej. Nws tsuas yog hais tias peb xav tias nws yuav siv sij hawm ua ntej ntau cov qauv ntawm cov tshuab luam ntawv no yooj yim txaus rau lub ntsiab.

Txawm li cas los xij, los ntawm 2030s thaum ntxov, 3D tshuab luam ntawv yuav dhau los ua cov khoom siv hauv yuav luag txhua lub tsev, zoo ib yam li lub qhov cub lossis microwave niaj hnub no. Lawv qhov loj thiab ntau yam uas lawv luam tawm yuav txawv raws li qhov chaw nyob thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tus tswv. Piv txwv li, cov tshuab luam ntawv no (txawm lawv yog txhua tus qauv lossis cov qauv tshwj xeeb) yuav siv tau cov yas, hlau, thiab ntaub los luam cov khoom me me, hloov cov khoom, cov cuab yeej yooj yim, cov khoom zoo nkauj, khaub ncaws yooj yim, thiab lwm yam. . Heck, qee lub tshuab luam ntawv tseem tuaj yeem luam tawm zaub mov!

Tab sis rau kev lag luam muag khoom, 3D tshuab luam ntawv yuav sawv cev rau qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws, cuam tshuam rau hauv khw thiab muag online.

Obviously, qhov no yuav dhau los ua tsov rog kev txawj ntse. Cov neeg yuav xav luam cov khoom uas lawv pom ntawm cov txee lossis cov khib nyiab dawb (lossis tsawg kawg, ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv luam tawm), hos cov khw muag khoom yuav xav kom cov neeg yuav lawv cov khoom ntawm lawv lub khw lossis e-khw muag khoom. Thaum kawg, ib yam li kev lag luam suab paj nruag paub txhua yam zoo, cov txiaj ntsig yuav sib xyaw. Ib zaug ntxiv, cov ncauj lus ntawm 3D tshuab luam ntawv yuav muaj nws tus kheej yav tom ntej series, tab sis lawv cov kev cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam muag khoom yuav loj heev raws li hauv qab no:

Cov khw muag khoom uas tshwj xeeb hauv cov khoom lag luam uas tuaj yeem yooj yim 3D luam tawm yuav kaw tag nrho lawv cov khw muag khoom ib txwm muaj thiab hloov lawv nrog cov khoom me me, cov khoom lag luam ntau dhau, cov neeg siv khoom-kev tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam / kev pabcuam showrooms. Lawv yuav txuag lawv cov peev txheej los tswj lawv cov cai IP (zoo ib yam li kev lag luam suab paj nruag) thiab thaum kawg yuav dhau los ua cov khoom lag luam ntshiab thiab cov tuam txhab lag luam, muag thiab ntawv tso cai rau cov tib neeg thiab cov chaw luam ntawv 3D hauv zos muaj cai luam tawm lawv cov khoom. Ib txoj hauv kev, qhov sib txawv no mus rau kev tsim cov khoom tsim thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom lag luam yog qhov tseem ceeb rau feem ntau cov khw muag khoom loj, tab sis thaum lub sijhawm xyoo 2030, lawv yuav muab tag nrho cov kev tswj hwm ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev faib tawm ntawm lawv cov khoom kawg.

Rau cov khw muag khoom kim heev, 3D luam ntawv yuav tsis cuam tshuam rau lawv cov kab hauv qab ntau dua li cov khoom lag luam los ntawm Tuam Tshoj ua niaj hnub no. Nws tsuas yog yuav dhau los ua lwm qhov teeb meem uas lawv tus kws lij choj IP yuav tawm tsam. Qhov tseeb yog hais tias txawm nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, tib neeg yuav them rau qhov tseeb thiab knockoffs yuav ib txwm pom rau lawv yog dab tsi. Los ntawm xyoo 2030, cov khw muag khoom kim heev yuav yog qhov kawg ntawm qhov chaw uas tib neeg yuav xyaum ua lag luam (xws li sim tawm thiab yuav khoom ntawm lub khw).

Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm ob qhov kev kub ntxhov no yog cov khw muag khoom uas tsim cov khoom muag / cov kev pabcuam uas tsis tuaj yeem yooj yim 3D luam tawm - cov no yuav suav nrog khau, khoom siv ntoo, cov khaub ncaws zoo nkauj, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab lwm yam. Rau cov khw muag khoom no, lawv yuav xyaum ntau lub tswv yim. ntawm kev tswj hwm lub network loj ntawm cov chav ua yeeb yam, kev tiv thaiv IP thiab kev tso cai ntawm lawv cov khoom siv yooj yim, thiab nce R & D los tsim cov khoom lag luam uas cov pej xeem tsis tuaj yeem yooj yim luam tawm hauv tsev.

Automation tua globalization thiab localizes khw muag khoom

Hauv peb Yav Tom Ntej Ua Haujlwm series, peb mus rau hauv cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws txog yuav ua li cas automation yog qhov tshiab outsourcing, yuav ua li cas cov neeg hlau tau nce zuj zus mus tshem tawm ntau txoj haujlwm xiav thiab dawb dab tshos ntau dua li cov haujlwm ua haujlwm tawm txawv teb chaws thaum xyoo 1980 thiab 90s.

Qhov no txhais tau li cas yog tias cov tuam txhab tsim khoom yuav tsis tas yuav tsim cov chaw ua haujlwm uas cov neeg ua haujlwm pheej yig (tsis muaj tib neeg yuav ua haujlwm pheej yig li neeg hlau). Hloov chaw, cov tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam yuav raug txhawb kom pib lawv cov chaw tsim khoom ze rau lawv cov neeg siv khoom kawg kom txo lawv cov nqi xa khoom. Yog li ntawd, tag nrho cov tuam txhab uas muag lawv cov khoom lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws thaum lub sijhawm 90s yuav xa lawv cov khoom lag luam rov qab rau hauv lawv lub tebchaws tsim los ntawm lub xyoo 2020 mus txog thaum ntxov 2030s.

Los ntawm ib qho kev xav, cov neeg hlau uas tsis xav tau nyiaj hli, siv los ntawm pheej yig rau lub hnub ci dawb, yuav tsim cov khoom pheej yig dua li txhua lub sijhawm hauv tib neeg keeb kwm. Ua ke qhov kev nce qib no nrog kev siv tsheb thauj mus los thiab cov kev pabcuam xa khoom uas yuav rub tus nqi ntawm kev xa khoom, thiab peb txhua tus yuav nyob hauv lub ntiaj teb uas cov neeg siv khoom yuav pheej yig thiab ntau.

Qhov kev txhim kho no yuav tso cai rau cov khw muag khoom muag muag ntawm cov luv nqi sib sib zog nqus lossis ntawm cov paj ntau dua. Tsis tas li ntawd, nyob ze rau cov neeg siv khoom kawg, es tsis txhob ntawm cov khoom lag luam kev loj hlob yuav tsum tau npaj rau XNUMX lub hlis mus rau ib xyoos tawm, cov khaub ncaws tshiab lossis cov khoom siv tuaj yeem tsim kev xav, tsim, tsim, thiab muag hauv khw muag khoom hauv ib mus rau peb lub hlis - zoo ib yam li kev zam zam niaj hnub no, tab sis ntawm steroids thiab rau txhua yam khoom lag luam.

Qhov tsis zoo, tau kawg, yog tias cov neeg hlau siv feem ntau ntawm peb txoj haujlwm, yuav ua li cas leej twg muaj nyiaj txaus los yuav ib yam dab tsi?

Ib zaug ntxiv, hauv peb Cov Kev Ua Haujlwm Yav Tom Ntej, peb piav qhia yuav ua li cas tsoomfwv yav tom ntej yuav raug yuam kom ua raws li qee yam ntawm Universal Basic Income (UBI) txhawm rau zam kev tawm tsam loj thiab kev sib raug zoo. Yooj yim muab tso, UBI yog ib qho nyiaj tau los pub rau txhua tus pej xeem (nplua nuj thiab pluag) tus kheej thiab tsis muaj xwm txheej, piv txwv li yam tsis muaj kev sim lossis kev ua haujlwm. Nws yog tsoomfwv muab nyiaj pub dawb rau koj txhua hli.

Ib zaug nyob rau hauv qhov chaw, feem coob ntawm cov pej xeem yuav muaj sij hawm dawb ntau dua (ua poob hauj lwm) thiab cov nyiaj tau los pov tseg. Cov profile ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom zoo li no sib haum nrog cov tub ntxhais hluas thiab cov tub txawg tub txawg, cov neeg siv khoom profile uas cov khw muag khoom paub zoo heev.

Cov khoom lag luam yav tom ntej ua qhov tseem ceeb dua li yav tas los

Nruab nrab ntawm 3D tshuab luam ntawv thiab automated, kev tsim khoom hauv zos, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom yav tom ntej tsis muaj qhov twg mus tab sis poob qis. Thaum cov kev hloov kho thev naus laus zis no yuav ua rau tib neeg muaj kev nplua nuj ntau thiab txo tus nqi ntawm kev ua neej rau txhua tus txiv neej, poj niam, thiab menyuam yaus, rau cov khw muag khoom feem ntau, nruab nrab mus txog rau xyoo 2030s yuav sawv cev rau lub sijhawm deflationary mus tas li.

Thaum kawg, lub neej yav tom ntej yuav rhuav tshem cov teeb meem txaus kom cov neeg yuav khoom los ntawm txhua qhov chaw, los ntawm leej twg, txhua lub sijhawm, ntawm tus nqi pob zeb hauv qab, feem ntau nrog tib hnub xa khoom. Nyob rau hauv ib txoj kev, tej yam yuav ua tsis muaj nqis. Thiab nws yuav yog kev puas tsuaj rau Silicon Valley cov tuam txhab, xws li Amazon, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv kev tsim khoom no.

Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub sijhawm uas tus nqi ntawm cov khoom dhau los ua tsis tseem ceeb, tib neeg yuav mob siab ntxiv txog cov dab neeg tom qab cov khoom thiab cov kev pabcuam uas lawv yuav, thiab tseem ceeb dua, tsim kev sib raug zoo nrog cov khoom qab zib thiab cov kev pabcuam. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm no, branding yuav rov ua huab tais thiab cov khw muag khoom uas nkag siab tias yuav vam meej. Nike khau, piv txwv li, raug nqi ob peb duas las los ua, tab sis muag tau zoo tshaj li ib puas ntawm cov khw muag khoom. Thiab tsis txhob ua rau kuv pib ntawm Apple.

Txhawm rau sib tw, cov khw muag khoom loj no tseem yuav nrhiav txoj hauv kev tshiab los koom nrog cov neeg yuav khoom nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev thiab kaw lawv mus rau hauv zej zog ntawm cov neeg nyiam. Qhov no yuav yog tib txoj kev uas cov khw muag khoom yuav tuaj yeem muag ntawm tus nqi them thiab tawm tsam cov deflationary pressures ntawm hnub.

Yog li ntawd koj muaj nws, peek rau yav tom ntej ntawm kev yuav khoom thiab khw muag khoom. Peb tuaj yeem mus ntxiv los ntawm kev sib tham txog yav tom ntej ntawm kev yuav khoom rau cov khoom digital thaum peb txhua tus pib siv peb lub neej feem ntau hauv Matrix-zoo li cyber kev muaj tiag, tab sis peb yuav tawm mus rau lwm lub sijhawm.

Thaum kawg, peb yuav khoom thaum peb tshaib plab. Peb yuav cov khoom siv yooj yim thiab cov rooj tog zaum kom xis nyob hauv peb lub tsev. Peb yuav cov khaub ncaws kom sov thiab qhia peb txoj kev xav, muaj txiaj ntsig, thiab tus kheej sab nraud. Peb lub khw ua ib hom kev lom zem thiab nrhiav pom. Ntau npaum li tag nrho cov qauv no yuav hloov txoj hauv kev cov khw muag khoom tso cai rau peb mus kav, vim li cas ho tsis hloov ntau npaum li ntawd.