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Kev hloov pauv digital cia: Yav Tom Ntej ntawm Computers P3

David Tal, Publisher, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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Tues, 09/15/2020 - 15:43

Feem ntau ntawm koj nyeem qhov no tej zaum yuav nco ntsoov qhov txo qis ntawm lub disk thiab nws yog 1.44 MB ntawm qhov chaw disk. Ib txhia ntawm koj tej zaum khib ntawm ib tug phooj ywg thaum nws nplawm tawm thawj USB tus ntiv tes xoo tsav, nrog nws 8MB loj heev ntawm qhov chaw, thaum lub tsev kawm ntawv project. Niaj hnub no, cov khawv koob tau ploj mus, thiab peb tau dhau los ua jaded. Ib qho terabyte ntawm lub cim xeeb los ntawm cov qauv hauv feem ntau 2018 desktops - thiab Kingston txawm muag ib lub terabyte USB drives tam sim no.

Peb txoj kev xav nrog kev khaws cia loj hlob ib xyoos dhau ib xyoos thaum peb haus thiab tsim cov ntsiab lus digital ntau dua, txawm tias nws yog daim ntawv tshaj tawm hauv tsev kawm ntawv, daim duab mus ncig, koj pab pawg sib xyaws, lossis GoPro video ntawm koj caij skiing Whistler. Lwm cov qauv zoo li qhov tshwm sim hauv Is Taws Nem ntawm Yam yuav tsuas yog ua kom lub roob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv uas lub ntiaj teb tsim, ntxiv roj foob pob hluav taws ntxiv rau qhov kev thov rau digital cia.

Qhov no yog vim li cas los tham txog cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia kom raug, peb nyuam qhuav txiav txim siab los kho cov tshooj no los ntawm kev faib nws ua ob. Qhov no ib nrab yuav npog cov kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis hauv kev khaws cov ntaub ntawv thiab nws qhov cuam tshuam rau cov neeg siv khoom digital nruab nrab. Lub caij no, tshooj tom ntej no yuav npog lub kiv puag ncig tom ntej hauv huab.

Cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia tshiab hauv cov kav dej

(TL; DR - Cov ntu hauv qab no qhia txog cov thev naus laus zis tshiab uas yuav ua kom muaj ntau cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia rau hauv ib qho me me thiab siv tau zoo dua. tiam sis thiab cuam tshuam ib ncig ntawm cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia, ces peb pom zoo kom hla mus rau lub subheading tom ntej.)

Ntau tus ntawm koj twb tau hnov txog Moore Txoj Cai (qhov kev soj ntsuam tias tus naj npawb ntawm cov transistors nyob rau hauv ib tug tuab integrated Circuit Court doubles roughly ob xyoos), tab sis nyob rau sab cia ntawm lub computer ua lag ua luam, peb muaj Kryder Txoj Cai—qhov tseem ceeb, peb lub peev xwm los nyem. puas tau ntau me ntsis rau hauv shrinking hard drives kuj yog ob npaug rau roughly txhua 18 lub hlis. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias tus neeg siv $ 1,500 rau 5MB 35 xyoo dhau los tam sim no tuaj yeem siv $ 600 rau 6TB tsav.

Qhov no yog lub puab tsaig-poob kev nce qib, thiab nws tsis nres txhua lub sijhawm sai sai.

Cov npe hauv qab no yog ib qho luv luv rau hauv qhov ze- thiab mus sij hawm ntev kev tsim kho tshiab digital cia cov tuam txhab yuav siv los ua kom peb lub zej zog cia- tshaib plab.

Zoo dua hard disk drives. Txog rau thaum ntxov xyoo 2020, cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv tsim cov khoom siv hard disk (HDD), ntim rau hauv ntau lub cim xeeb kom txog thaum peb tsis tuaj yeem tsim cov hard disks ib qho denser. Cov tswv yim tsim los ua thawj xyoo caum kawg ntawm HDD tech suav nrog Shingled Magnetic Recording (SMR), ua raws li Ob-dimensional Magnetic Recording (TDMR), thiab muaj peev xwm Thaum tshav kub kub-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAUM).

Lub xeev hard drives. Hloov cov tsoos hard disk drive tau sau tseg saum toj no yog lub xeev hard drive (SATA SSD). Tsis zoo li HDDs, SSDs tsis muaj ib qho spinning disks - qhov tseeb, lawv tsis muaj qhov txav txhua. Qhov no tso cai rau SSDs khiav nrawm dua, ntawm qhov me me, thiab muaj zog dua li lawv cov thawj coj. SSDs twb yog tus qauv ntawm niaj hnub laptops thiab tau maj mam dhau los ua qauv kho vajtse ntawm feem ntau cov qauv duab tshiab. Thiab thaum xub thawj kim dua HDDs, lawv tus nqi poob sai dua HDDs, txhais tau tias lawv cov kev muag khoom tuaj yeem hla HDDs ncaj qha los ntawm nruab nrab-2020s.

Cov tiam tom ntej SSDs tau maj mam pib qhia ib yam nkaus, nrog cov tuam txhab hloov pauv ntawm SATA SSDs mus rau PCIe SSDs uas muaj tsawg kawg yog rau lub sijhawm bandwidth ntawm SATA drives thiab loj hlob.

Flash nco mus 3D. Tab sis yog tias ceev yog lub hom phiaj, tsis muaj dab tsi ntaus khaws txhua yam hauv lub cim xeeb.

HDDs thiab SSDs tuaj yeem muab piv rau koj lub cim xeeb ntev, qhov flash yog ntau dua rau koj lub cim xeeb luv. Thiab ib yam li koj lub hlwb, ib lub computer ib txwm xav tau ob hom kev cia kom ua haujlwm. Feem ntau hu ua random access memory (RAM), tsoos tus kheej lub computer yuav tuaj nrog ob sticks ntawm RAM ntawm 4 mus rau 8GB txhua. Lub caij no, cov neeg ntaus hnyav tshaj plaws xws li Samsung tam sim no muag 2.5D nco phaib uas tuav 128GB txhua-zoo rau cov neeg ua si nyuaj, tab sis ua tau zoo dua rau cov khoos phis tawj tom ntej.

Qhov kev sib tw nrog cov npav nco no yog tias lawv tab tom khiav mus rau tib lub cev tsis muaj zog hard disks tab tom ntsib. Qhov phem dua, cov transistors me me dhau los ua hauv RAM, qhov phem dua lawv ua dhau sijhawm - cov transistors nyuaj dua los lwv thiab sau kom raug, thaum kawg tsoo phab ntsa ua haujlwm uas yuam lawv hloov nrog cov tshiab RAM sticks. Raws li qhov no, cov tuam txhab tau pib tsim cov cim cim xeeb tom ntej:

3D NAND. Cov tuam txhab xws li Intel, Samsung, Micron, Hynix, thiab Taiwan Semiconductor tab tom thawb rau kev siv dav dav. 3D NAND, uas stacks transistors rau hauv peb qhov ntev hauv ib nti.
Resistive Random Access Memory (RAM). Cov thev naus laus zis no siv qhov tsis kam hloov hluav taws xob los khaws cov khoom (0s thiab 1s) ntawm lub cim xeeb.
3D chips. Qhov no yuav tau tham ntau ntxiv hauv tshooj tom ntej, tab sis luv luv, 3D chips aim los muab xam thiab cov ntaub ntawv cia nyob rau hauv vertically stacked khaubncaws sab nraud povtseg, yog li txhim kho kev ceev ceev thiab txo lub zog noj.
Phase Change Memory (PCM). cov tech tom qab PCMs hauv paus heats thiab cools chalcogenide iav, hloov nws ntawm crystallized mus rau non-crystallized xeev, txhua tus nrog lawv cov cim hluav taws xob resistances sawv cev rau binary 0 thiab 1. Thaum zoo tag nrho, qhov tech no yuav kav ntev dua li tam sim no RAM variants thiab yog non-volatile, lub ntsiab lus. nws tuaj yeem tuav cov ntaub ntawv txawm tias thaum lub hwj chim tawm (tsis zoo li ib txwm RAM).
Spin-Transfer Torque Random-Access Memory (STT-RAM). Lub hwj chim Frankenstein uas sib txuas lub peev xwm ntawm DRAM nrog ceev ntawm SRAM, nrog rau kev txhim kho tsis-volatility thiab ze unlimited endurance.
3D XPoint. Nrog rau cov thev naus laus zis no, tsis txhob cia siab rau transistors los khaws cov ntaub ntawv, 3D Xpoint siv lub microscopic mesh ntawm cov xov hlau, sib koom ua ke los ntawm "selector" uas tau muab tso rau saum ib leeg. Ib zaug ua tiav, qhov no tuaj yeem hloov pauv kev lag luam txij li 3D Xpoint tsis hloov pauv, yuav ua haujlwm ntau txhiab zaus sai dua NAND flash, thiab 10 npaug dua li DRAM.

Hauv lwm lo lus, nco ntsoov thaum peb hais tias "HDDs thiab SSDs tuaj yeem muab piv rau koj lub cim xeeb ntev, qhov flash yog zoo li koj lub cim xeeb luv luv"? Zoo, 3D Xpoint yuav ua ob qho tib si thiab ua kom zoo dua li ob qho tib si sib cais.

Txawm hais tias qhov kev xaiv twg yeej tawm, tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv tshiab ntawm flash nco yuav muab ntau lub peev xwm nco, ceev, endurance thiab lub zog ua haujlwm.

Kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm kev khaws cia ntev ntev. Lub caij no, rau cov kev siv uas qhov ceev tseem ceeb tsawg dua qhov kev khaws cia ntawm cov ntaub ntawv loj, cov theoretical tshiab thiab theoretical technologies yog tam sim no nyob rau hauv kev ua haujlwm:

Daim kab xev tsav. Tsim muaj ntau tshaj 60 xyoo dhau los, peb thawj zaug siv daim kab xev los khaws cov ntaub ntawv se thiab kev noj qab haus huv. Niaj hnub no, qhov tech no tau ua tiav nyob ze nws qhov theoretical ncov nrog IBM teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm archiving 330 terabytes ntawm uncompressed cov ntaub ntawv (~ 330 lab phau ntawv) rau hauv ib daim kab xev cartridge nyob ib ncig ntawm koj txhais tes.
DNA khaws cia. Cov kws tshawb fawb los ntawm University of Washington thiab Microsoft Research tsim ib qhov system encode, khaws thiab khaws cov ntaub ntawv digital siv DNA molecules. Thaum ua tiav, qhov system no yuav muaj ib hnub khaws cov ntaub ntawv ntau lab lub sijhawm ntau dua li cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia tam sim no.
Kilobyte rewritable atomic nco. Los ntawm kev tswj tus kheej chlorine atoms ntawm ib daim ntawv tiaj tus tooj liab, cov kws tshawb fawb sau cov lus 1-kilobyte ntawm 500 terabits ib square inch - kwv yees li 100 npaug ntxiv cov ntaub ntawv ib square inch dua li qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm kev ua lag luam.
5D cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia. Qhov no tshwj xeeb cia system, spearheaded los ntawm University of Southampton, nta 360 TB / disc cov ntaub ntawv muaj peev xwm, thermal stability mus txog 1,000 ° C thiab ib tug nyob ze ntawm unlimited lub neej ntawm chav tsev kub (13.8 billion xyoo ntawm 190 ° C). Hauv lwm lo lus, 5D cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia yuav zoo tagnrho rau kev siv archival ntawm cov tsev khaws puav pheej thiab cov tsev qiv ntawv.

Software-Defined Storage Infrastructure (SDS). Nws tsis yog cia li khaws cia kho vajtse uas pom kev tshiab, tab sis cov software uas khiav nws kuj tseem muaj kev txhim kho zoo siab. SDS yog siv feem ntau hauv cov tuam txhab loj hauv computer network lossis huab cia cov kev pabcuam uas cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia hauv nruab nrab thiab nkag mus los ntawm tus kheej, txuas nrog cov khoom siv. Nws pib siv tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv muaj peev xwm khaws cia hauv lub network thiab cais nws ntawm ntau yam kev pabcuam thiab cov khoom siv uas khiav hauv lub network. Cov tshuab SDS zoo dua tau raug coded txhua lub sijhawm kom siv tau zoo dua qub (hloov tshiab) cov khoom siv khaws cia.

Peb puas tseem xav tau kev khaws cia yav tom ntej?

Okay, yog li kev khaws cia thev naus laus zis yuav txhim kho ntau ntxiv nyob rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Tab sis qhov uas peb yuav tsum xav txog yog, qhov txawv qhov ntawd ua rau qhov twg?

Tus neeg nruab nrab yuav tsis siv li terabyte ntawm qhov chaw cia tam sim no muaj nyob rau hauv cov qauv tshiab desktop computer. Thiab nyob rau hauv ob mus rau plaub xyoos ntxiv, koj lub xov tooj smartphone tom ntej yuav muaj qhov chaw cia txaus rau horde ib xyoos tus nqi ntawm cov duab thiab yeeb yaj kiab yam tsis tas yuav caij nplooj ntoos hlav ntxuav koj lub cuab yeej. Tseeb, muaj cov neeg tsawg tsawg ntawm cov neeg uas nyiam horde ntau cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lawv lub khoos phis tawj, tab sis rau lwm tus ntawm peb, muaj ntau qhov kev hloov pauv uas txo peb qhov kev xav tau ntau dhau, tus kheej-muaj disk cia chaw.

Cov kev pabcuam streaming. Ib zaug dhau los, peb cov nkauj sau nkauj suav nrog sau cov ntaub ntawv, tom qab ntawv cassettes, ces CDs. Nyob rau hauv lub 90s, cov nkauj tau los ua digitized rau hauv MP3s yuav hoarded los ntawm ntau txhiab (thawj los ntawm torrents, ces ntau thiab ntau dua los ntawm cov khw muag khoom xws li iTunes). Tam sim no, tsis yog yuav tsum khaws thiab npaj cov nkauj sau rau hauv koj lub computer hauv tsev lossis xov tooj, peb tuaj yeem tshaj tawm cov nkauj tsis kawg thiab mloog lawv txhua qhov chaw los ntawm cov kev pabcuam xws li Spotify thiab Apple Music.

Qhov kev nce qib no ua ntej txo cov suab paj nruag qhov chaw nyob hauv tsev, tom qab ntawd qhov chaw digital ntawm koj lub computer. Tam sim no nws tuaj yeem hloov pauv los ntawm kev pabcuam sab nraud uas muab rau koj pheej yig thiab yooj yim, nyob txhua qhov chaw / txhua lub sijhawm nkag mus rau txhua lub suab paj nruag koj xav tau. Tau kawg, feem ntau ntawm koj nyeem qhov no tej zaum tseem muaj ob peb CDs nyob ib puag ncig, feem ntau tseem yuav muaj cov khoom sau ntawm MP3s hauv lawv lub computer, tab sis cov neeg siv computer tiam tom ntej yuav tsis nkim lawv lub sijhawm sau lawv lub computer nrog suab paj nruag lawv tuaj yeem ua tau. nkag tau dawb hauv online.

Pom tseeb, luam tawm txhua yam kuv nyuam qhuav hais txog suab paj nruag thiab siv rau zaj duab xis thiab TV (nyob zoo, Netflix!) thiab kev khaws cia ntawm tus kheej kom loj hlob.

kev tawm. Nrog suab paj nruag, zaj duab xis, thiab TV qhia clogging tsawg thiab tsawg ntawm peb tus kheej lub computer, tom ntej no loj loj cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov ntsiab lus yog tus kheej cov duab thiab yeeb yaj duab. Ib zaug ntxiv, peb tau siv los tsim cov duab thiab cov yeeb yaj kiab ntawm lub cev, thaum kawg los sau cov plua plav hauv peb lub tsev. Tom qab ntawd peb cov duab thiab cov yeeb yaj kiab tau mus rau digital, tsuas yog rov sau cov plua plav hauv qhov nruab nrab ntawm peb lub khoos phis tawj. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem: Peb tsis tshua pom feem ntau ntawm cov duab thiab yeeb yaj kiab uas peb coj.

Tab sis tom qab kev tshaj xov xwm tau tshwm sim, cov chaw xws li Flickr thiab Facebook tau muab peb lub peev xwm los qhia cov duab tsis kawg nrog cov neeg uas peb nyiam, thaum tseem khaws cov duab ntawd (dawb) hauv kev tswj hwm tus kheej lub kaw lus lossis ncua sij hawm. Thaum lub sij hawm kev sib raug zoo no, ua ke nrog cov khoom me me, lub koob yees duab hauv xov tooj siab, nce ntau cov duab thiab cov yeeb yaj kiab uas tsim los ntawm tus neeg nruab nrab, nws kuj txo peb tus cwj pwm khaws cov duab hauv peb lub computer ntiag tug, txhawb peb khaws lawv hauv online, ntiag tug. los yog pej xeem.

Huab thiab kev pabcuam kev sib koom tes. Muab ob lub ntsiab lus kawg, tsuas yog cov ntaub ntawv txo qis (thiab ob peb lwm hom ntaub ntawv niche) tseem nyob. Cov ntaub ntawv no, piv rau multimedia uas peb nyuam qhuav tham, feem ntau yog me me uas khaws cia rau hauv koj lub computer yuav tsis muaj teeb meem.

Txawm li cas los xij, hauv peb lub ntiaj teb txawb xov tooj, muaj qhov xav tau ntau ntxiv kom nkag mus rau cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev mus. Thiab ntawm no dua, tib qhov kev vam meej peb tau tham nrog cov suab paj nruag tau tshwm sim ntawm no - qhov twg thawj zaug peb thauj cov ntaub ntawv siv floppy disks, CDs, thiab USBs, tam sim no peb siv yooj yim dua thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv. huab cia cov kev pabcuam, xws li Google Drive thiab Dropbox, uas khaws peb cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub chaw muab ntaub ntawv sab nraud rau peb kom nkag mus rau hauv online ruaj ntseg. Cov kev pabcuam zoo li no tso cai rau peb nkag mus thiab qhia peb cov ntaub ntawv nyob qhov twg, txhua lub sijhawm, ntawm txhua lub cuab yeej lossis kev ua haujlwm.

Txhawm rau kom ncaj ncees, siv cov kev pabcuam streaming, kev tshaj xov xwm, thiab kev pabcuam huab tsis tas txhais tau tias peb yuav txav txhua yam mus rau huab-qee yam peb nyiam khaws cia tsis pub dhau thiab nyab xeeb-tab sis cov kev pabcuam no tau txiav, thiab tseem yuav txiav mus ntxiv, tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv lub cev qhov chaw khaws cia peb yuav tsum muaj lub xyoo dhau xyoo.

Vim li cas exponentially cia ntau qhov tseem ceeb

Txawm hais tias tus neeg nruab nrab yuav pom qhov xav tau tsawg dua rau kev khaws cia digital ntau dua, muaj lub zog loj ntawm kev ua si uas yog tsav Kryder Txoj Cai rau pem hauv ntej.

Ua ntej tshaj plaws, vim muaj cov npe ze-ib xyoos ntawm kev ruaj ntseg ua txhaum cai thoob plaws ntau lub tuam txhab thev naus laus zis thiab kev pabcuam nyiaj txiag - txhua qhov ua rau muaj kev phom sij rau cov ntaub ntawv digital ntawm ntau lab tus tib neeg - kev txhawj xeeb txog cov ntaub ntawv ntiag tug yog qhov muaj cai loj hlob ntawm cov pej xeem. Nyob ntawm tus neeg xav tau kev pab, qhov no yuav ua rau pej xeem xav tau ntau dua thiab pheej yig dua cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia rau kev siv tus kheej kom tsis txhob nyob ntawm huab. Cov tib neeg yav tom ntej tseem tuaj yeem teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv ntiag tug khaws cia hauv lawv lub tsev kom txuas mus rau sab nraud tsis yog nyob ntawm cov servers uas muaj los ntawm cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis loj.

Lwm qhov kev txiav txim siab yog tias cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia txwv tam sim no thaiv kev nce qib hauv ntau qhov chaw los ntawm biotech mus rau kev txawj ntse. Cov haujlwm uas nyob ntawm kev sib sau thiab ua cov ntaub ntawv loj yuav tsum khaws cov ntaub ntawv ntau dua los tsim cov khoom tshiab thiab cov kev pabcuam.

Tom ntej no, los ntawm lig 2020s, Internet ntawm Yam (IoT), autonomous tsheb, neeg hlau, augmented kev muaj tiag, thiab lwm yam xws li tom ntej no-gen 'ntug technologies' yuav spur peev mus rau hauv cia tech. Qhov no yog vim hais tias rau cov thev naus laus zis no ua haujlwm, lawv yuav tsum muaj lub tshuab xam zauv thiab lub peev xwm khaws cia kom nkag siab txog lawv qhov chaw nyob ib puag ncig thiab ua rau lub sijhawm tiag tiag yam tsis muaj kev cia siab tas li ntawm huab. Peb tshawb nrhiav lub tswv yim no ntxiv hauv tshooj XNUMX ntawm no series.

Thaum kawg, tus Internet ntawm tej yam uas ( piav qhia tag nrho hauv peb Yav tom ntej ntawm Internet series) yuav ua rau billions-rau-trillions ntawm sensors taug qab lub zog lossis xwm txheej ntawm billions-rau-trillions ntawm yam. Cov ntaub ntawv ntau npaum li cas cov countless sensors yuav tsim yuav thov kom muaj peev xwm khaws tau zoo ua ntej nws tuaj yeem ua tiav los ntawm supercomputers peb yuav npog ze rau qhov kawg ntawm cov koob no.

Tag nrho-hauv-tag nrho, thaum tus neeg nruab nrab yuav nce txo lawv cov kev xav tau ntawm tus kheej, cov khoom siv digital cia, txhua tus neeg hauv ntiaj teb tseem yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm qhov tsis muaj peev xwm khaws cia yav tom ntej digital cia thev naus laus zis yuav muaj. Tau kawg, raws li tau hais ua ntej, lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm kev khaws cia nyob hauv huab, tab sis ua ntej peb tuaj yeem dhia qhov ntswg tob rau hauv cov ncauj lus ntawd, peb yuav tsum xub nkag siab txog qhov kev hloov pauv pub dawb uas tshwm sim ntawm kev ua haujlwm (microchip) sab ntawm lub computer lag luam - lub ntsiab lus ntawm tshooj tom ntej.