Ulamuliro wa Multilateral export: The trade tug-of-war

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• Dzina la wolemba

  Quantumrun Foresight
• August 4, 2023

Kuzindikira kwakukulu

Bungwe la US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) lidakhazikitsa mfundo zatsopano zowongolera zotumiza kunja (2023) kuti ziletse dziko la China kugwiritsa ntchito zida zaukadaulo zapamwamba za semiconductor. Ngakhale kutayika kwachuma kwamakampani aku US, maulamulirowa akuyembekezeka kutengedwa ndi ogwirizana. Komabe, zovuta zomwe zingachitike kwa nthawi yayitali ndi monga kulepheretsa kukula kwachuma m'magawo ena, mikangano yandale, chipwirikiti cha anthu chifukwa cha kutha kwa ntchito, kuchepetsa kufalikira kwaukadaulo padziko lonse lapansi, komanso kufunikira kowaphunzitsanso antchito.

Multilateral export controls context

Ulamuliro wa kutumiza kunja kopangidwa ndi mabungwe ogwirizana a mayiko amagwira ntchito yoyendetsera bwino kutumiza kwa matekinoloje ena kuti apindule nawo. Komabe, ogwirizana omwe alipo akuwonetsa kusiyana kwakukulu, makamaka pankhani ya gawo la China la semiconductor. Pamene mpikisano waukatswiri wapakati pa dziko la US ndi China ukukulirakulira, nthambi yowona za malonda ku US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) idakhazikitsa mfundo zatsopano zowongolera zotumiza kunja zomwe zimalepheretsa dziko la China kupeza, kupanga ndi kupanga zida zaukadaulo zapamwamba zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito AI, supercomputing, ndi chitetezo ntchito. 

Kusunthaku kukupanga kusintha kwakukulu mu ndondomeko ya US, yomwe kale inali yomasuka kwambiri pazamalonda. Ndondomeko zatsopanozi, zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa mu Okutobala 2022, ziletsa kutumiza zida zopangira semiconductor zomwe zingathandize makampani aku China kupanga ma semiconductors apamwamba osakwana ma nanometer 14. BIS ili ndi mapulani enanso, akuti makampani akhazikitse njira zawo zoyendetsera katundu wa zida za semiconductor, zida, ndi tchipisi kuti awonetse mgwirizano wotsutsana ndi China.

Malipoti atolankhani kuyambira kumapeto kwa Januware 2023 adanenanso kuti Japan ndi Netherlands anali okonzeka kulowa nawo ku US pakukhazikitsa zoletsa zotumiza kunja kwa semiconductor ku China. Mu February 2023, bungwe lalikulu lazamalonda lamakampani aku China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA), lidapereka chikalata chodzudzula izi. Kenako, mu Marichi 2023, boma la Dutch lidachitapo kanthu koyamba polengeza malire otumiza ku China ku makina apamwamba omiza a ultraviolet (DUV). 

Zosokoneza

Ulamuliro wa kutumiza kunja uku uli ndi zotsatira zandalama kwa omwe akuwapanga. Panali kale zotayika zamabizinesi ku US semiconductor zida ndi makampani akuthupi. Ma stocks for Applied Materials, KLA, ndi Lam Research onse awona kutsika kwa 18 peresenti kuyambira kukhazikitsidwa kwa maulamulirowa. Makamaka, Applied Equipment idachepetsa kugulitsa kwake kotala kotala ndi pafupifupi USD $400 miliyoni, ponena kuti kusinthaku kudachitika ndi malamulo a BIS. Mabizinesi awa awonetsa kuti kutayika kwa ndalama zomwe akuyembekezeredwa kutha kuwopseza kuthekera kwawo kwanthawi yayitali kuti apeze ndalama zofufuzira ndi chitukuko chofunikira kuti apitilize mpikisano wawo.

Ngakhale pali zovuta za mbiri yakale ndi mgwirizano wamayiko osiyanasiyana pazaulamuliro wa kutumiza kunja, dipatimenti ya Zamalonda ku US ikukhulupirirabe kuti ogwirizana nawo akhazikitsanso ziletso zofananira. Ngakhale makampani aku China angayese kupanga mitundu yawo yaukadaulo waku US, ukadaulo wotsogola komanso maunyolo otsogola amapangitsa kuti ntchitoyi ikhale yovuta kwambiri.

Akatswiri akuganiza kuti US ili ndi gawo lalikulu pakuwongolera maulamuliro otumizira kunja ku China. Ngati dziko la US likulephera kuthandizidwa ndi opanga ena akuluakulu, zowongolera zotumizira kunja zitha kuvulaza makampani aku US mosadziwa pomwe zikungolepheretsa pang'ono kupanga zida zapamwamba zaku China komanso luso lopanga. Komabe, zomwe oyang'anira a Biden adachita pakadali pano akutanthauza kumvetsetsa zovuta zomwe zingachitike komanso njira yolimbikitsira kuti atetezedwe ndikutsata njira iyi. Ngakhale kuti kugwiritsa ntchito njirayi kungayambitse mavuto, kuchitidwa bwino kungakhale kopindulitsa pakapita nthawi ndikukhazikitsa lingaliro latsopano la mgwirizano wopindulitsa pa nkhani zokhudzana ndi chitetezo.

Zotsatira za maulamuliro a mayiko osiyanasiyana

Zomwe zimakhudzidwa ndi maulamuliro otumiza kunja angaphatikizepo: 

• Zalepheretsa kukula kwachuma m'magawo ena, makamaka omwe amadalira kutumiza kunja kwa katundu wolamulidwa kapena umisiri. Pakapita nthawi, zovuta izi zitha kubweretsa kusintha kwachuma pomwe mabizinesi amasintha ndikusiyana magawo ena.
• Kusamvana pazandale mdziko muno komanso m'mayiko ena. Kunyumba, magawo omwe akukhudzidwa ndi maulamulirowa atha kukakamiza maboma awo kuti akambirane zinthu zabwino. Padziko lonse, kusagwirizana pakukakamiza kapena kuphwanya mgwirizano kungayambitse ubale.
• Kutayika kwa ntchito ndi chipwirikiti cha anthu, makamaka m'madera omwe amadalira kwambiri mafakitalewa. M'kupita kwa nthawi, izi zikhoza kukulitsa kusiyana pakati pa chikhalidwe ndi chuma.
• Ulamuliro wotumiza kunja kwa zinthu zaukadaulo wapamwamba kapena umisiri wapamwamba umachepetsa kufalikira kwaukadaulo padziko lonse lapansi, ndikulepheretsa chitukuko chaukadaulo m'maiko ena. Komabe, zitha kulimbikitsa luso lanyumba ngati makampani ayika ndalama pakufufuza ndi chitukuko kuti adutse ukadaulo wakunja wolamulidwa.
• Kuwongolera malonda apadziko lonse azinthu zowononga chilengedwe kapena matekinoloje. M'kupita kwa nthawi, izi zingapangitse kuti chilengedwe chikhale ndi phindu lalikulu, monga kuchepetsa kuipitsidwa ndi kusunga bwino zamoyo zosiyanasiyana. 
• Kupewa kwa zida zopangidwa mochuluka komanso matekinoloje ogwiritsira ntchito pawiri (omwe ali ndi ntchito wamba komanso zankhondo). M'kupita kwa nthawi, kuwongolera bwino kwa mayiko osiyanasiyana kungapangitse chitetezo chapadziko lonse lapansi. Komabe, ngati maiko ena akuwona kuti akungofuna kutsata kapena kuletsedwa mosayenera, zitha kubweretsa mmbuyo kapena kuchulukitsidwa kwazinthu zachinsinsi kuti azembe zowongolera.

Mafunso oyenera kuwaganizira

• Ndi maulamuliro ati omwe dziko lanu likuchita nawo?
• Kodi zowongolera zotumiza kunja izi zingabwezere bwanji vuto?