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Africa; Continent ya njala ndi nkhondo: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 12:48

Kuneneratu kosakhala bwino kumeneku kudzayang'ana kwambiri pazandale za ku Africa monga momwe zikukhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, mudzawona Africa yomwe yawonongeka chifukwa cha chilala ndi kusowa kwa chakudya; Africa yomwe yadzazidwa ndi zipolowe zapakhomo ndi kumenyedwa ndi nkhondo zapamadzi pakati pa oyandikana nawo; ndi Africa yomwe yasanduka bwalo lankhondo lachiwawa pakati pa US mbali imodzi, ndi China ndi Russia mbali inayo.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale la dziko la Africa - silinafotokozedwe bwino. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani ngati Gwynne Dyer, a. mlembi wotsogola pankhani imeneyi. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zomwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Afrika, m'bale motsutsana ndi m'bale

Pa makontinenti onse, Africa ingakhale imodzi mwa mayiko omwe akukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kusintha kwa nyengo. Madera ambiri akulimbana kale ndi kusatukuka, njala, kuchulukana kwa anthu, komanso nkhondo ndi mikangano yopitilira theka - kusintha kwanyengo kumangowonjezera mkhalidwe wazinthu. Zizindikiro zoyamba za mkangano zidzawuka kuzungulira madzi.

Water

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, kupeza madzi opanda mchere kudzakhala nkhani yaikulu m'mayiko onse a mu Africa. Kusintha kwa nyengo kudzatenthetsa madera onse a mu Afirika mpaka pamene mitsinje imauma kumayambiriro kwa chaka ndipo nyanja ndi akasupe amadzi zimachepa kwambiri.

Kumpoto kwa mayiko a Maghreb a ku Africa - Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, ndi Egypt - ndizovuta kwambiri, chifukwa kugwa kwa magwero a madzi opanda mchere kusokoneza ulimi wawo ndikufooketsa kwambiri magetsi awo ochepa opangira magetsi. Maiko a m’mphepete mwa nyanja kumadzulo ndi kum’mwera adzamvanso chitsenderezo chofanana ndi cha madzi opanda mchere, motero kusiyira maiko oŵerengeka chabe apakati ndi kum’maŵa—omwe ndi Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, ndi Tanzania—kuti apulumutsidwe. zovuta chifukwa cha Nyanja Victoria.

Food

Ndi kutayika kwa madzi opanda mchere komwe tafotokoza pamwambapa, malo akulu akulu olimidwa mu Africa monse adzakhala osagwira ntchito paulimi pamene kusintha kwa nyengo kumawotcha nthaka, ndikuyamwa chinyontho chilichonse chotsalira pansi. Kafukufuku wasonyeza kuti kukwera kwa kutentha kwa madigiri awiri kapena anayi kungapangitse kuti 20-25 peresenti iwonongeke zokolola m’kontinenti ino. Kuperewera kwa chakudya kudzakhala kosapeweka ndipo kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe akuyembekezeredwa kuti achuluke kuchokera pa 1.3 biliyoni lero (2018) mpaka kupitilira mabiliyoni awiri muzaka za 2040 ndikutsimikiza kukulitsa vutoli.

Kusamvana

Kuphatikizika kwakukula kwa kusowa kwa chakudya ndi madzi, komanso kuchuluka kwa anthu ochuluka, kudzawona maboma mu Africa yonse akukumana ndi chiopsezo chachikulu cha ziwawa zachiwawa, zomwe zitha kukulirakulira ku mikangano pakati pa mayiko aku Africa.

Mwachitsanzo, mkangano waukulu udzabuka pa nkhani ya ufulu wa mtsinje wa Nile, womwe umayambira ku Uganda ndi ku Ethiopia. Chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa madzi abwino komwe tatchula pamwambapa, mayiko onsewa adzakhala ndi chidwi chowongolera kuchuluka kwa madzi abwino omwe amalola kutsika kwa mtsinje kuchokera kumalire awo. Komabe, zoyesayesa zawo zaposachedwa zomanga madamu m’malire awo a ntchito zothirira ndi zopangira magetsi opangidwa ndi madzi, zipangitsa kuti madzi achepe akuyenda mumtsinje wa Nile kupita ku Sudan ndi Egypt. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, ngati dziko la Uganda ndi la Ethiopia likakana kuchita mgwirizano ndi dziko la Sudan ndi Egypt pa nkhani ya kugawana madzi mwachilungamo, ndiye kuti nkhondo sizingapeweke.

Othaŵa kwawo

Ndi zovuta zonse zomwe Africa idzakumane nazo m'zaka za m'ma 2040, kodi mungadzudzule anthu a ku Africa chifukwa choyesa kuthawa kontinenti yonse? Pamene vuto la nyengo likuipiraipira, mabwato othawa kwawo ayenda kuchokera ku mayiko a Maghreb kumpoto kupita ku Ulaya. Kudzakhala kumodzi mwakusamuka kwakukulu kwambiri m'zaka makumi angapo zapitazi, komwe kukuyenera kuchulukirachulukira kumayiko akumwera kwa Europe.

Mwachidule, maiko aku Europe awa azindikira chiwopsezo chachikulu chachitetezo chomwe kusamukaku kumabweretsa pamoyo wawo. Kuyesera kwawo koyambirira kuthana ndi othawa kwawo mwachilungamo komanso mwachifundo kudzasinthidwa ndi kulamula kuti asitikali apanyanja atumize mabwato onse othawa kwawo kugombe la Africa. M’malo mwake, mabwato amene satsatira angamizidwe m’nyanja. Pamapeto pake, othawa kwawo adzazindikira kuwoloka kwa Mediterranean ngati msampha wa imfa, kusiya ofunitsitsa kwambiri kupita kummawa kuti asamukire ku Europe - poganiza kuti ulendo wawo sunayimitsidwe ndi Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Syria, ndipo pomaliza Turkey.

Njira ina yoti anthu othawa kwawowa asamukire kumayiko apakati ndi kum'mawa kwa Africa komwe sikukhudzidwa ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, makamaka mayiko omwe ali kumalire ndi Nyanja ya Victoria, omwe tawatchula kale. Komabe, kuchuluka kwa anthu othawa kwawo kudzasokonezanso maderawa, chifukwa maboma awo sadzakhala ndi ndalama zokwanira zothandizira anthu osamukira kwawo.

Tsoka ilo ku Africa, munthawi yovutayi ya kusowa kwa chakudya komanso kuchuluka kwa anthu, zoyipitsitsa zili mtsogolo (onani Rwanda 1994).

Katundu

Pamene maboma omwe ali ndi vuto la nyengo akuvutika mu Africa monse, mayiko akunja adzakhala ndi mwayi waukulu wowathandiza, mwina posinthanitsa ndi zachilengedwe za kontinenti.

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, Europe idzakhala itasokoneza ubale wonse waku Africa poletsa mwachangu othawa kwawo aku Africa kulowa m'malire awo. Middle East ndi Asia ambiri adzakhala otanganidwa kwambiri ndi chipwirikiti chawo chapakhomo kuti asaganizire zakunja. Chifukwa chake, maulamuliro okhawo omwe ali ndi njala padziko lonse lapansi omwe atsala ndi njira zachuma, zankhondo, ndi zaulimi kuti alowererepo ku Africa adzakhala US, China, ndi Russia.

Si chinsinsi kuti kwa zaka zambiri, US ndi China akhala akupikisana pa ufulu wa migodi mu Africa. Komabe, panthawi yamavuto anyengo, mpikisanowu udzakula mpaka kukhala nkhondo yaying'ono: US idzayesa kuletsa China kuti isapeze zomwe ikufunikira popambana ufulu wamigodi wokhawokha m'maiko angapo aku Africa. Momwemonso, mayikowa adzalandira thandizo lalikulu lankhondo laku US kuti athe kuwongolera kuchuluka kwa anthu, kutseka malire, kuteteza zachilengedwe, ndi mphamvu zamapulojekiti - zomwe zingapangitse maulamuliro atsopano oyendetsedwa ndi asitikali panthawiyi.

Pakalipano, China idzagwirizana ndi Russia kuti ipereke chithandizo chofanana chankhondo, komanso chithandizo cha zomangamanga mu mawonekedwe apamwamba a Thorium reactors ndi desalination zomera. Zonsezi zidzachititsa maiko a mu Afirika kufola kumbali zonse za kugaŵanika kwa maganizo—mofanana ndi malo a Nkhondo Yozizira imene inachitikira m’zaka za m’ma 1950 mpaka m’ma 1980.

Environment

Chimodzi mwazinthu zomvetsa chisoni kwambiri zavuto lanyengo ku Africa ndi kuwonongeka koopsa kwa nyama zakuthengo mdera lonselo. Pamene zokolola zaulimi zikuwonongeka m’kontinenti yonseyo, nzika za mu Afirika zanjala ndi za zolinga zabwino zidzatembenukira ku nyama zakutchire kuti zidyetse mabanja awo. Nyama zambiri zomwe zili pachiwopsezo pakali pano zitha kutha chifukwa chopha nyama mopitilira muyeso panthawiyi, pomwe zomwe sizili pachiwopsezo pano zitha kugwera m'gulu lomwe latsala pang'ono kutha. Popanda chithandizo chambiri cha chakudya chochokera ku mayiko akunja, kuwonongeka komvetsa chisoni kumeneku kwa chilengedwe ku Africa kudzakhala kosapeweka.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Chabwino, choyamba, zomwe mwangowerengazi ndizoneneratu, osati zenizeni. Komanso, ndizoneneratu zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingathe ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa nthawi ino mpaka kumapeto kwa zaka za 2040 kuti zithetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo, zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwe mu mndandanda womaliza. Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa: