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Maboma ndi mgwirizano watsopano wapadziko lonse lapansi: Mapeto a Nkhondo Zanyengo P12

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 13:00

Ngati mwawerenga mndandanda wonse wa Climate Wars mpaka pano, mwina mukuyandikira siteji ya kukhumudwa kwakukulu. Zabwino! Muyenera kumva moyipa. Ndi tsogolo lanu ndipo ngati palibe chomwe chachitika polimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, ndiye kuti zikuyamwa.

Izi zati, taganizirani za gawo ili la mndandanda ngati Prozac kapena Paxil yanu. Ngakhale kuti tsogolo lingakhale loipa bwanji, zinthu zatsopano zimene asayansi, mabungwe abizinesi, ndi maboma padziko lonse lapansi zikuchita, zingatipulumutsebe. Tili ndi zaka zolimba za 20 kuti tichitepo kanthu ndipo ndikofunikira kuti nzika wamba zidziwe momwe kusintha kwanyengo kudzathetsedwera kwambiri. Kotero tiyeni tifike kwa izo.

Simudzadutsa ... 450ppm

Mungakumbukire kuchokera ku gawo loyamba la mndandanda uno momwe gulu la sayansi likukhudzidwa ndi chiwerengero cha 450. Monga kubwereza mwamsanga, mabungwe ambiri apadziko lonse omwe ali ndi udindo wokonzekera ntchito yapadziko lonse yokhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo amavomereza kuti malire omwe tingathe kulola mpweya wowonjezera kutentha ( Kukhazikika kwa GHG) kuti kumangiridwe mumlengalenga wathu ndi magawo 450 pa miliyoni (ppm). Kuchulukaku kumafanana ndi kutentha kwa madigiri awiri Celsius m'nyengo yathu, chifukwa chake amatchedwa: "2-degrees-Celsius malire."

Pofika mu February 2014, kuchuluka kwa GHG mumlengalenga wathu, makamaka kwa carbon dioxide, kunali 395.4 ppm. Izi zikutanthauza kuti tatsala pang'ono kugunda kapu ya 450 ppm.

Ngati mwawerenga mndandanda wonse mpaka pano, mutha kuyamikira momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhalire pa dziko lathu ngati titadutsa malire. Tidzakhala m'dziko losiyana kotheratu, dziko lomwe ndi lankhanza kwambiri komanso lokhala ndi anthu ochepa kwambiri kuposa momwe akatswiri amaneneratu.

Tiyeni tiwone kukwera kwa madigiri awiri awa kwa mphindi imodzi. Pofuna kupewa izi, dziko lapansi liyenera kuchepetsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha ndi 50% ndi 2050 (kutengera milingo ya 1990) ndi pafupifupi 100% ndi 2100. kumayiko otukuka kwambiri, kuphatikiza China ndi India.

Ziwerengero zochulukirazi zimapangitsa andale kukhala ndi mantha. Kuchepetsa motere kungawonetse kuchepa kwakukulu kwachuma, kupangitsa anthu mamiliyoni ambiri kusiya ntchito ndi umphawi - osati njira yabwino yopambana nayo chisankho.

Pali Nthawi

Koma chifukwa chakuti zolingazo ndi zazikulu, sizikutanthauza kuti sizingatheke ndipo sizikutanthauza kuti tilibe nthawi yokwanira kuti tikwaniritse. Nyengo imatha kutentha kwambiri pakanthawi kochepa, koma kusintha kwanyengo kutha kutenga zaka zambiri chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa mayankho.

Panthawiyi, zosintha zomwe zimatsogoleredwa ndi mabungwe apadera akubwera m'madera osiyanasiyana omwe angathe kusintha osati momwe timagwiritsira ntchito mphamvu, komanso momwe timayendetsera chuma chathu ndi anthu athu. Kusintha kwamitundu ingapo kudzachitika padziko lonse lapansi m'zaka 30 zikubwerazi zomwe, mothandizidwa ndi boma komanso boma, zitha kusintha kwambiri mbiri yapadziko lonse lapansi, makamaka pokhudzana ndi chilengedwe.

Ngakhale kusintha kulikonse kumeneku, makamaka kwa nyumba, mayendedwe, chakudya, makompyuta, ndi mphamvu, kuli ndi mndandanda wonse woperekedwa kwa iwo, ndikuwonetsa magawo amtundu uliwonse womwe ungakhudze kwambiri kusintha kwanyengo.

Global Diet Plan

Pali njira zinayi zomwe anthu angapewere tsoka la nyengo: kuchepetsa kusowa kwathu kwa mphamvu, kupanga mphamvu kudzera mu njira zokhazikika, zotsika kwambiri za carbon, kusintha DNA ya capitalism kuti iike mtengo pa mpweya wa carbon, ndi kusunga bwino chilengedwe.

Tiyeni tiyambe ndi mfundo yoyamba: kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zathu. Pali zigawo zazikulu zitatu zomwe zimapanga kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zamagetsi m'chitaganya chathu: chakudya, zoyendera, ndi nyumba - momwe timadyera, momwe timayendera, momwe timakhalira - zofunikira za moyo wathu wa tsiku ndi tsiku.

Food

Malinga ndi Bungwe la Chakudya ndi Ulimi la United Nations, ulimi (makamaka ziweto) mwachindunji ndi m'njira zina zimathandizira ku 18% (matani 7.1 biliyoni a CO2 ofanana) a mpweya woipa wapadziko lonse lapansi. Ndiko kuipitsidwa kwakukulu komwe kungathe kuchepetsedwa pochita bwino.

Zinthu zosavuta zitha kufalikira pakati pa 2015-2030. Alimi ayamba kuyika ndalama m'mafamu anzeru, makonzedwe afamu akuluakulu oyendetsedwa ndi data, ma drones oyenda okha ndi olima mpweya, kusinthira kukhala algae kapena mafuta opangidwa ndi hydrogen pamakina, ndikuyika majenereta oyendera dzuwa ndi mphepo pamtunda wawo. Pakali pano, nthaka yaulimi ndi kudalira kwake kwambiri feteleza wopangidwa ndi nayitrogeni (wopangidwa kuchokera ku mafuta oyambira pansi pa nthaka) ndiye gwero lalikulu la nitrous oxide padziko lonse lapansi (wowonjezera kutentha). Kugwiritsa ntchito feteleza bwino kwambiri ndikusintha feteleza wa algae kudzakhala kofunikira kwambiri m'zaka zikubwerazi.

Chilichonse mwazinthu zatsopanozi chidzameta maperesenti angapo kuchoka ku mpweya wa carbon, komanso kupanga mafamu kukhala opindulitsa komanso opindulitsa kwa eni ake. (Zatsopanozi zidzakhalanso zabwino kwa alimi m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene.) Koma kuti timvetse bwino za ulimi wochepetsera mpweya wa carbon, tilinso ndi njira zochepetsera chimbudzi cha zinyama. Inde, inu munawerenga izo molondola. Methane ndi nitrous oxide ali ndi mphamvu yotentha yapadziko lonse kuwirikiza pafupifupi 300 kuposa mpweya woipa, ndipo 65 peresenti ya mpweya wa nitrous oxide padziko lonse ndi 37 peresenti ya mpweya wa methane umachokera ku manyowa a ziweto.

Tsoka ilo, chifukwa chofuna nyama padziko lonse lapansi kukhala momwe zilili, kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa ziweto zomwe timadya mwina sizichitika posachedwa. Mwamwayi, pofika pakati pa zaka za m'ma 2030, misika yapadziko lonse yanyama idzagwa, kuchepetsa kufunika, kusandutsa aliyense kukhala osadya zamasamba, ndikuthandizira chilengedwe nthawi yomweyo. 'Zingatheke bwanji zimenezo?' mukufunsa. Chabwino, muyenera kuwerenga wathu Tsogolo la Chakudya mndandanda kuti mudziwe. (Inde, ndikudziwa, ndimadana nazo pamene olemba achita zimenezo. Koma ndikhulupirireni, nkhaniyi yatalika kale mokwanira.)

thiransipoti

Pofika chaka cha 2030, makampani oyendetsa mayendedwe adzakhala osazindikirika poyerekeza ndi masiku ano. Pakali pano, magalimoto athu, mabasi, magalimoto, masitima apamtunda ndi ndege zimatulutsa pafupifupi 20% ya mpweya woipa wapadziko lonse lapansi. Pali mwayi wambiri wotsitsa nambala imeneyo.

Tiyeni titenge galimoto yanu yapakati. Pafupifupi magawo atatu mwa asanu amafuta athu onse amapita ku magalimoto. Awiri mwa magawo atatu a mafutawa amagwiritsidwa ntchito kugonjetsa kulemera kwa galimoto kuti ikankhire kutsogolo. Chilichonse chomwe tingachite kuti magalimoto azikhala opepuka amapangitsa kuti magalimoto azikhala otchipa komanso osagwiritsa ntchito mafuta ambiri.

Izi ndi zomwe zili mupaipi: opanga magalimoto posachedwa apanga magalimoto onse kuchokera ku carbon fiber, zinthu zomwe zimakhala zopepuka komanso zamphamvu kuposa aluminiyamu. Magalimoto opepuka awa aziyenda pamainjini ang'onoang'ono koma amachitanso chimodzimodzi. Magalimoto opepuka apangitsanso kugwiritsa ntchito mabatire a m'badwo wotsatira pa injini zoyaka moto, kutsitsa mtengo wamagalimoto amagetsi, ndikupangitsa kuti azitha kupikisana nawo pamagalimoto oyatsa. Izi zikachitika, kusinthira kumagetsi kumaphulika, chifukwa magalimoto amagetsi ndi otetezeka kwambiri, amawononga ndalama zochepa kuti asamalidwe, komanso amawononga ndalama zochepa kuti awonjezere mafuta poyerekeza ndi magalimoto oyendera gasi.

Chisinthiko chomwe chili pamwambachi chidzakhudzanso mabasi, magalimoto, ndi ndege. Kudzakhala kusintha masewera. Mukawonjezera magalimoto odziyendetsa okha kusakaniza ndikugwiritsa ntchito bwino njira zopangira misewu yathu pazomwe tazitchula pamwambapa, mpweya wowonjezera kutentha kwa makampani oyendetsa magalimoto udzachepetsedwa kwambiri. Ku US kokha, kusinthaku kudzachepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta ndi migolo 20 miliyoni patsiku pofika chaka cha 2050, ndikupangitsa dzikolo kukhala lodziyimira pawokha.

Nyumba Zamalonda ndi Zogona

Magetsi ndi kutentha kumatulutsa pafupifupi 26 % ya mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse lapansi. Nyumba, kuphatikizapo malo athu antchito ndi nyumba zathu, zimapanga magawo atatu mwa anayi a magetsi ogwiritsidwa ntchito. Masiku ano, mphamvu zambirizi zikuwonongeka, koma zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi ziwona nyumba zathu zikuchulukirachulukira katatu kapena kuwirikiza kanayi, ndikupulumutsa madola 1.4 thililiyoni (ku US).

Kuchita bwino kumeneku kudzachokera ku mazenera apamwamba omwe amasunga kutentha m'nyengo yachisanu ndi kusokoneza kuwala kwa dzuwa m'nyengo yachilimwe; Ulamuliro wabwino wa DDC wotenthetsera bwino, mpweya wabwino, ndi zoziziritsa mpweya; kuwongolera kuchuluka kwa mpweya wosiyanasiyana; wanzeru kumanga makina; ndi kuyatsa kopanda mphamvu ndi mapulagi. Kuthekera kwina ndikusandutsa nyumba kukhala zopangira magetsi ang'onoang'ono posintha mawindo awo kukhala ma solar panels (yup, ndicho chinthu tsopano) kapena kuyika ma jenereta amphamvu a geothermal.Nyumba zotere zitha kuchotsedwa pagululi, ndikuchotsa mawonekedwe awo a carbon.

Ponseponse, kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pazakudya, zoyendera, ndi nyumba kudzathandiza kwambiri kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa mpweya wathu. Gawo labwino kwambiri ndilakuti zopindulitsa zonsezi zitha kutsogozedwa ndi anthu wamba. Izi zikutanthauza kuti ndi zolimbikitsa zokwanira za boma, zosintha zonse zomwe tazitchula pamwambapa zitha kuchitika posachedwa kwambiri.

Mogwirizana ndi izi, kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kumatanthauzanso kuti maboma akuyenera kuyika ndalama zochepa pamagetsi atsopano komanso okwera mtengo. Izi zimapangitsa kuti ndalama zowonjezedwanso ziwoneke bwino, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pang'onopang'ono magwero a mphamvu zonyansa monga malasha asinthe.

Kuthirira Zongowonjezera

Pali mkangano womwe nthawi zonse umakankhidwa ndi otsutsa mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa zomwe zimatsutsa kuti popeza zongowonjezera sizingapange mphamvu 24/7, sangadaliridwe ndi ndalama zazikulu. Ichi ndichifukwa chake timafunikira magwero amphamvu otengera mphamvu monga malasha, gasi, kapena nyukiliya kuti dzuwa lisawale.

Komabe, zomwe akatswiri ndi andale omwewo amalephera kutchula, komabe, n'zakuti malo a malasha, gasi, kapena zida za nyukiliya nthawi zina amazima chifukwa cha zolakwika kapena kukonza. Koma akatero, satseka kwenikweni magetsi a mizinda imene akutumikira. Ndi chifukwa chakuti tili ndi chinthu chomwe chimatchedwa grid grid, pamene chomera chimodzi chikatseka, mphamvu kuchokera ku chomera china imatenga nthawi yomweyo, kuchirikiza zosowa zamphamvu za mzindawo.

Gridi yomweyi ndi yomwe zongowonjezwdwa zidzagwiritsa ntchito, kotero kuti dzuwa likapanda kuwala, kapena mphepo siomba m'dera limodzi, kutaya mphamvu kungathe kulipidwa kuchokera kumadera ena kumene zowonjezera zimapanga mphamvu. Kuphatikiza apo, mabatire am'mafakitale akubwera pa intaneti posachedwa omwe amatha kusunga mphamvu zambiri masana kuti amasulidwe madzulo. Mfundo ziwirizi zikutanthawuza kuti mphepo ndi dzuwa zimatha kupereka mphamvu zodalirika mofanana ndi magwero amphamvu amphamvu.

Pomaliza, pofika chaka cha 2050, mayiko ambiri padziko lapansi adzayenera kusintha ma gridi ndi magetsi okalamba, kotero kuti m'malo mwa zomangamanga izi ndi zotsika mtengo, zoyeretsa, komanso zowonjezera mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu zimangopangitsa ndalama. Ngakhale kusintha kwachitukuko ndi zongowonjezera kumawononga ndalama zofananira ndikusintha ndi magwero amagetsi akale, zongowonjezera zimakhala njira yabwinoko. Ganizilani izi: mosiyana ndi magwero amphamvu apakati, magetsi omwe amagawikanso samanyamula katundu wofanana ndi ziwopsezo zachitetezo cha dziko chifukwa cha zigawenga, kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta odetsedwa, kukwera mtengo kwachuma, nyengo ndi zovuta zaumoyo, komanso kusatetezeka kwakukulu. kuzimitsidwa.

Kuyika ndalama pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zamagetsi ndi zongowonjezwdwa kutha kuyamwitsa dziko la mafakitale kusiya malasha ndi mafuta pofika chaka cha 2050, kupulumutsa maboma ma thililiyoni a madola, kukulitsa chuma pogwiritsa ntchito ntchito zatsopano zongowonjezwdwa ndi kuyika gridi yanzeru, ndikuchepetsa mpweya wathu wa kaboni pafupifupi 80%. Pamapeto pake, mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso zichitika, ndiye tiyeni tiwumirize maboma athu kuti afulumizitse ntchitoyi.

Kugwetsa Base-load

Tsopano, ndikudziwa kuti ndangolankhula zamtundu wamagetsi oyambira, koma pali mitundu iwiri yatsopano yamagetsi osasinthika oyenera kuyikamba: mphamvu ya thorium ndi fusion. Ganizirani za mbadwo wotsatira wa mphamvu ya nyukiliya, koma zoyera, zotetezeka, ndi zamphamvu kwambiri.

Ma reactors a thorium amathamanga pa thorium nitrate, gwero lomwe lili mochulukira kanayi kuposa uranium. Komano, ma fusion reactors amayenda pamadzi, kapena kuphatikiza ma hydrogen isotopes tritium ndi deuterium, kukhala ndendende. Ukadaulo wozungulira ma reactors a thorium makamaka ulipo kale ndipo ukugwira ntchito mwachangu kutsatiridwa ndi China. Mphamvu ya fusion yakhala ikulipidwa kwazaka zambiri, koma posachedwa nkhani kuchokera ku Lockheed Martin zikuwonetsa kuti fusion reactor yatsopano ikhoza kutsala zaka khumi.

Ngati chimodzi mwazinthu zamagetsi izi chibwera pa intaneti mkati mwa zaka khumi zikubwerazi, zitha kutumiza zododometsa m'misika yamagetsi. Mphamvu ya Thorium ndi fusion imatha kupanga mphamvu zambiri zoyera zomwe zitha kuphatikizidwa mosavuta ndi gridi yathu yamagetsi yomwe ilipo. Ma reactors a thorium makamaka adzakhala otsika mtengo kwambiri kuti amange misa. Ngati China ikwanitsa kupanga mtundu wawo, iwonetsa kutha kwa mafakitale onse opangira malasha ku China konse - kuluma kwakukulu pakusintha kwanyengo.

Chifukwa chake ndizovuta, ngati anthurium ndi fusion alowa m'misika yamalonda mkati mwa zaka 10-15 zikubwerazi, ndiye kuti atha kupitilira zowonjezera ngati tsogolo lamphamvu. Kutalikirapo kuposa pamenepo ndi zongowonjezera zidzapambana. Mulimonsemo, mphamvu zotsika mtengo komanso zochuluka zili m'tsogolo lathu.

Mtengo Weniweni pa Carbon

The capitalist system ndiye choyambitsa chachikulu cha anthu. Wabweretsa ufulu kumene kunali nkhanza, chuma kumene kunali umphawi. Wakweza anthu kufika patali kwambiri. Ndipo komabe, ikasiyidwa ku mphamvu yakeyake, capitalism imatha kuwononga mosavuta momwe ingapangire. Ndi dongosolo lomwe likufunika kasamalidwe kokhazikika kuti zitsimikizire kuti mphamvu zake zikugwirizana bwino ndi zikhalidwe zachitukuko zomwe zimagwira ntchito.

Ndipo limenelo ndi limodzi mwa mavuto aakulu a m’nthawi yathu ino. Dongosolo la capitalist, monga likugwira ntchito masiku ano, siligwirizana ndi zosowa ndi zikhalidwe za anthu omwe akuyenera kuwatumikira. Dongosolo la capitalist, mu mawonekedwe ake apano, limatilepheretsa m'njira ziwiri zazikulu: limalimbikitsa kusalingana ndikulephera kuyika mtengo pazinthu zochotsedwa ku Dziko lathu lapansi. Chifukwa cha zokambirana zathu, tingothana ndi kufooka komaliza.

Pakali pano, dongosolo la capitalist silimayika phindu pazokhudza chilengedwe chathu. Ndi chakudya chamasana chaulere. Ngati kampani ipeza malo omwe ali ndi chuma chamtengo wapatali, ndi yawo kugula ndi kupanga phindu. Mwamwayi, pali njira yomwe tingakhazikitsirenso DNA ya dongosolo la capitalist kuti lisamalire ndikutumikira chilengedwe, komanso kukulitsa chuma ndikupereka kwa munthu aliyense padziko lapansi.

Bwezerani Misonkho Yachikale

Kwenikweni, sinthani msonkho wamalonda ndi msonkho wa carbon ndikusintha msonkho wa katundu ndi a msonkho wa katundu wotengera kachulukidwe.

Dinani maulalo awiri omwe ali pamwambapa ngati mukufuna kudziwa zinthu izi, koma mfundo yayikulu ndikuti powonjezera msonkho wa kaboni womwe umawerengera bwino momwe timachotsera zinthu padziko lapansi, momwe timasinthira zinthuzo kukhala zinthu zothandiza ndi ntchito, ndi momwe timanyamulira katundu wofunikawo padziko lonse lapansi, potsirizira pake tidzaika mtengo weniweni pa chilengedwe chomwe tonse timagawana. Ndipo tikayika mtengo pachinthu, pamenepo pokhapo dongosolo lathu la capitalist limagwira ntchito kuti lisamalire.

Mitengo ndi Nyanja

Ndasiya kusamala zachilengedwe ngati mfundo yachinayi popeza ndiyodziwika kwambiri kwa anthu ambiri.

Tiyeni tikhale enieni apa. Njira yotsika mtengo komanso yothandiza kwambiri yoyamwa mpweya woipa kuchokera mumlengalenga ndiyo kubzala mitengo yambiri ndi kumeretsanso nkhalango zathu. Pakali pano, kudula mitengo kumapanga pafupifupi 20% ya mpweya wathu wapachaka wa carbon. Ngati tingachepetse chiwerengero chimenecho, zotsatira zake zingakhale zazikulu. Ndipo chifukwa cha zokolola zomwe zafotokozedwa m'gawo lazakudya pamwambapa, titha kulima chakudya chochulukirapo popanda kudula mitengo yambiri yolima.

Pakadali pano, nyanja ndizomwe zimamira kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Tsoka ilo, nyanja zathu zikufa chifukwa cha mpweya wochuluka wa carbon (kuwapangitsa kukhala acidic) komanso chifukwa cha usodzi. Kuchuluka kwa mpweya ndi malo akuluakulu osasodza ndi chiyembekezo chokhacho cha m'nyanja yathu kuti mibadwo yamtsogolo idzakhala ndi moyo.

Kukambitsirana kwanyengo kwapano pa World Stage

Pakali pano, andale ndi kusintha kwa nyengo sikusiyana kwenikweni. Zowona zamasiku ano ndizakuti ngakhale ndi zatsopano zomwe tazitchula pamwambapa, kuchepetsa utsi kudzatanthauza kuchedwetsa chuma mwadala. Andale amene amachita zimenezi nthawi zambiri sakhala pampando.

Kusankha kumeneku pakati pa kuyang'anira zachilengedwe ndi kupita patsogolo kwachuma ndizovuta kwambiri m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene. Iwo aona mmene maiko oyambirira akhalira olemera kuchokera kumbuyo kwa chilengedwe, kotero kuwapempha kuti apeŵe kukula komweko nkovuta kugulitsa. Mayiko otukuka kumene ameneŵa akusonyeza kuti popeza kuti maiko oyambilira anachititsa kuti mpweya wowonjezera kutentha uchuluke mumlengalenga, iwo ndiwo ayenera kusenza mtolo waukulu wa kuuyeretsa. Pakadali pano, mayiko oyamba padziko lonse lapansi sakufuna kuchepetsa utsi wawo - ndikudziyika pachiwopsezo pazachuma - ngati kudulidwa kwawo kuthetsedwa ndi mpweya wothawa m'maiko ngati India ndi China. Ndi pang'ono za nkhuku ndi mazira.

Malinga ndi David Keith, Pulofesa wa Harvard ndi Purezidenti wa Carbon Engineering, malinga ndi akatswiri azachuma, ngati mumagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri zochepetsera mpweya m'dziko lanu, mumatha kugawira phindu la kudulidwa kumeneku padziko lonse lapansi, koma ndalama zonse za omwewo. mabala ali m'dziko lanu. Ichi ndichifukwa chake maboma amakonda kuyika ndalama kuti agwirizane ndi kusintha kwanyengo kuposa kuchepetsa mpweya, chifukwa zopindulitsa ndi ndalama zimatsalira m'maiko awo.

Mayiko padziko lonse lapansi amazindikira kuti kudutsa mzere wofiira wa 450 kumatanthauza kupweteka ndi kusakhazikika kwa aliyense mkati mwa zaka zotsatira za 20-30. Komabe, palinso malingaliro akuti palibe chitumbuwa chokwanira chozungulira, kukakamiza aliyense kuti adye mochuluka momwe angathere kuti athe kukhala pamalo abwino kwambiri akatha. Ndicho chifukwa Kyoto analephera. Ndicho chifukwa chake Copenhagen analephera. Ndipo ndicho chifukwa chake msonkhano wotsatira udzalephera pokhapokha titatsimikizira kuti zachuma zomwe zimayambitsa kuchepetsa kusintha kwa nyengo zimakhala zabwino, m'malo molakwika.

Zidzafika Poipitsitsa Zisanakhale Bwino

Chinthu chinanso chomwe chimapangitsa kusintha kwanyengo kukhala kovuta kwambiri kuposa zovuta zilizonse zomwe anthu adakumana nazo m'mbuyomu ndi nthawi yomwe imagwira ntchito. Zosintha zomwe tikupanga lero kuti tichepetse utsi wathu zidzakhudza kwambiri mibadwo yamtsogolo.

Ganizilani izi malinga ndi mmene wandale amaonela: afunika kukopa ovota kuti avomele ndalama zodula pa nchito za chilengedwe, zomwe mwina zidzalipidwa poonjezera misonkho ndipo phindu lake lidzasangalalidwa ndi mibadwo yamtsogolo. Monga momwe anthu anganene mosiyana, anthu ambiri amakhala ndi nthawi yovuta kupatula $20 pa sabata ku thumba lapuma pantchito, osadandaula za moyo wa adzukulu omwe sanakumanepo nawo.

Ndipo zidzaipiraipira. Ngakhale titakwanitsa kupita ku chuma chochepa kwambiri pofika chaka cha 2040-50 pochita zonse zomwe tafotokozazi, mpweya wowonjezera kutentha womwe timatulutsa udzakhala ukukulirakulira mumlengalenga kwazaka zambiri. Kutulutsa kumeneku kudzatsogolera ku malingaliro abwino omwe angafulumizitse kusintha kwa nyengo, kupangitsa kubwerera ku nyengo "yabwinobwino" ya 1990s kumatenga nthawi yayitali - mwina mpaka 2100s.

N'zomvetsa chisoni kuti anthu sapanga zisankho pamiyeso ya nthawi imeneyo. Chilichonse chopitilira zaka 10 sichingakhalepo kwa ife.

Momwe Final Global Deal Idzawonekera

Monga momwe Kyoto ndi Copenhagen angapangire kuganiza kuti ndale zapadziko lonse sadziwa momwe angathetsere kusintha kwanyengo, zenizeni ndi zosiyana. Mphamvu zapamwamba zimadziwa bwino lomwe yankho lomaliza lidzawoneka. Ndilo yankho lomaliza silikhala lodziwika kwambiri pakati pa ovota m'madera ambiri padziko lapansi, kotero atsogoleri akuchedwa kuyankha yankho lomaliza mpaka sayansi ndi mabungwe azinsinsi apanga njira yathu yothanirana ndi kusintha kwanyengo kapena kusintha kwanyengo kumabweretsa chisokonezo padziko lonse lapansi. kuti ovota avomereza kuvotera mayankho osakondedwa ku vuto lalikululi.

Nayi yankho lomaliza mwachidule: Mayiko olemera komanso otukuka kwambiri akuyenera kuvomereza kuchepetsedwa kwakuya komanso kwenikweni kwa mpweya wawo wa carbon. Kuchepetsako kuyenera kukhala kozama mokwanira kuti athetse mpweya wochokera kumayiko ang'onoang'ono omwe akutukuka kumene omwe akuyenera kupitiliza kuipitsa kuti akwaniritse cholinga chanthawi yochepa chochotsa anthu mu umphawi wadzaoneni komanso njala.

Pamwamba pa izi, maiko olemera ayenera kugwirizana kuti apange Marshall Plan ya zaka za zana la 21 yomwe cholinga chake chidzakhala kupanga ndalama zapadziko lonse kuti zipititse patsogolo chitukuko cha Dziko Lachitatu ndikupita kudziko la post-carbon. Gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a thumba ili likhalabe m'mayiko otukuka kuti athandizidwe kuti afulumizitse kusintha kwa kayendetsedwe ka mphamvu ndi kupanga zomwe zafotokozedwa kumayambiriro kwa nkhaniyi. Magawo atatu otsala a thumbali adzagwiritsidwa ntchito posinthira ukadaulo wokulirapo komanso thandizo lazachuma kuti athandizire mayiko a Third World kudumphadumpha pazachuma wamba komanso kupanga magetsi kuti akhazikitse maziko okhazikika komanso ma network amagetsi omwe azikhala otsika mtengo, olimba, osavuta kukulitsa, komanso makamaka mpweya. ndale.

Tsatanetsatane wa dongosololi likhoza kukhala losiyana—gahena, mbali zake zitha kukhala zotsogozedwa ndi anthu wamba—koma autilaini yonse imawoneka yofanana ndi yomwe yangofotokozedwa kumene.

Pamapeto pake, ndi za chilungamo. Atsogoleri apadziko lonse lapansi adzayenera kuvomereza kugwirira ntchito limodzi kuti akhazikitse chilengedwe ndikuchiza pang'onopang'ono kubwerera ku 1990. Ndipo pochita zimenezi, atsogoleriwa adzayenera kuvomereza za ufulu watsopano wapadziko lonse, ufulu watsopano wa munthu aliyense padziko lapansi, kumene aliyense adzaloledwa kugaŵirako mwakachetechete kutulutsa mpweya wotenthetsa dziko lapansi. Ngati mupyola gawolo, ngati muyipitsa zambiri kuposa gawo lanu la pachaka, ndiye kuti mumalipira msonkho wa carbon kuti mubwererenso bwino.

Ufulu wapadziko lonse ukangogwirizana, anthu m'maiko oyamba ayamba kulipira msonkho wa kaboni chifukwa cha moyo wapamwamba, wokhala ndi mpweya wambiri womwe amakhalapo kale. Misonkho ya carbon imeneyo idzapereka kupititsa patsogolo maiko osauka, kotero kuti anthu awo tsiku lina adzasangalala ndi moyo wofanana ndi wa Kumadzulo.

Tsopano ndikudziwa zomwe mukuganiza: ngati aliyense akukhala moyo wotukuka, kodi sizingakhale zochulukira kuti chilengedwe chizithandizira? Pakali pano, inde. Kuti chilengedwe chikhalepobe mogwirizana ndi chuma chamakono ndi luso lazopangapanga, anthu ambiri padziko lapansi afunikira kutsekeredwa mu umphaŵi wadzaoneni. Koma ngati tifulumiza masinthidwe amene akudza m’zakudya, zoyendera, nyumba, ndi mphamvu, pamenepo kudzakhala kotheka kuti chiŵerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chikhale ndi moyo m’miyoyo ya Dziko Loyamba —popanda kuwononga dziko lapansi. Ndipo kodi chimenecho si cholinga chomwe tikuyesetsabe?

Ace Yathu mu Hole: Geoengineering

Pomaliza, pali gawo limodzi la sayansi lomwe anthu atha (ndipo mwina adzagwiritsa ntchito) mtsogolomo kuthana ndi kusintha kwanyengo kwakanthawi kochepa: geoengineering.

Tanthauzo la dictionary.com la geoengineering ndi “kusintha dala kwachilengedwe komwe kumakhudza nyengo ya dziko lapansi, poyesa kuthana ndi vuto la kutentha kwa dziko.” Kwenikweni, kuwongolera kwake kwanyengo. Ndipo tidzagwiritsa ntchito kuchepetsa kutentha kwapadziko lonse kwakanthawi.

Pali ma projekiti osiyanasiyana a geoengineering pa bolodi - tili ndi zolemba zingapo zomwe zangofotokoza za mutuwo-koma pakadali pano, tifotokoza mwachidule njira ziwiri zomwe zingakusangalatseni: stratospheric sulfure seeding ndi chitsulo munyanja.

Stratospheric Sulfur Seeding

Pamene mapiri aakulu kwambiri aphulika, amawombera phulusa lalikulu la sulfure ku stratosphere, mwachibadwa komanso kwa kanthaŵi kuchepetsa kutentha kwapadziko lonse ndi zosakwana XNUMX peresenti. Bwanji? Chifukwa pamene sulfureyo imayenda mozungulira stratosphere, imawunikira kuwala kwadzuwa kokwanira kugunda Dziko lapansi kuti ichepetse kutentha kwapadziko lonse. Asayansi ngati Pulofesa Alan Robock wa ku yunivesite ya Rutgers amakhulupirira kuti anthu angachite chimodzimodzi. Robock akunena kuti pokhala ndi madola mabiliyoni ochepa chabe ndi pafupifupi ndege zazikulu zisanu ndi zinayi zonyamula katundu zomwe zimauluka pafupifupi katatu patsiku, tingathe kutsitsa matani miliyoni a sulfure kupita ku stratosphere chaka chilichonse kuti achepetse kutentha kwapadziko lonse ndi digiri imodzi kapena iwiri mwachinyengo.

Kuchuluka kwa Iron ku Nyanja

M’nyanja zikuluzikulu muli chakudya chambiri. Pansi penipeni pa ndandanda yazakudya imeneyi pali phytoplankton (zomera zazing'ono kwambiri). Zomerazi zimadya mchere womwe nthawi zambiri umachokera ku fumbi lopangidwa ndi mphepo kuchokera ku makontinenti. Mmodzi mwa mchere wofunika kwambiri ndi chitsulo.

Tsopano, oyambitsa omwe amakhala ku California, Climos ndi Planktos, omwe anali osowa ndalama, anayesa kutaya fumbi lachitsulo la ufa wambiri kudera lalikulu lakuya kwanyanja kuti alimbikitse maluwa a phytoplankton. Kafukufuku akusonyeza kuti kilogalamu imodzi ya chitsulo cha ufa imatha kupanga pafupifupi ma kilogalamu 100,000 a phytoplankton. Ma phytoplankton awa amatha kuyamwa mpweya wochuluka kwambiri akamakula. Kwenikweni, kuchuluka kwa mbewuyi komwe sikumadyedwa ndi mayendedwe a chakudya (kupanga kuchuluka kofunikira kwa zamoyo zam'madzi) kudzagwera pansi panyanja, ndikukokera pansi matani ambiri a carbon.

Izo zikumveka bwino, inu mukuti. Koma n’cifukwa ciani maseŵera aŵili oyambilila anayamba kuphulika?

Geoengineering ndi sayansi yatsopano yomwe imalandira ndalama zochepa kwambiri komanso yosakondedwa kwambiri ndi asayansi anyengo. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa asayansi amakhulupirira (ndipo moyenerera) kuti ngati dziko limagwiritsa ntchito njira zosavuta komanso zotsika mtengo za geoengineering kuti nyengo ikhale yokhazikika m'malo mogwira ntchito mwakhama kuti tichepetse mpweya wathu wa carbon, ndiye kuti maboma a dziko akhoza kusankha kugwiritsa ntchito geoengineering kwamuyaya.

Zikanakhala zoona kuti tingathe kugwiritsa ntchito geoengineering kuti tithetseretu mavuto athu a nyengo, ndiye kuti maboma akanachitadi zimenezo. Tsoka ilo, kugwiritsa ntchito geoengineering kuti athetse kusintha kwa nyengo kuli ngati kuchiza munthu wokonda heroin pomupatsa heroin yowonjezereka-zikhoza kumupangitsa kumva bwino pakapita nthawi, koma pamapeto pake chizoloŵezicho chidzamupha.

Ngati tisunga kutentha mokhazikika kwinaku tikulola kuti mpweya wa carbon dioxide ukule, carbon dioxide yowonjezereka idzasefukira nyanja zathu, kuzipangitsa kukhala acidic. Ngati nyanja ikhala acidic kwambiri, zamoyo zonse za m'nyanjazi zidzatha, zomwe zidzachitika m'zaka za zana la 21. Ndicho chimene ife tonse tingafune kuchipewa.

Pamapeto pake, geoengineering iyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati njira yomaliza kwa zaka zosapitirira 5-10, nthawi yokwanira kuti dziko lapansi lichitepo kanthu mwadzidzidzi ngati titadutsa chizindikiro cha 450ppm.

Kutenga Zonse

Pambuyo powerenga mndandanda wazochapira zomwe maboma angasankhe kuti athane ndi kusintha kwanyengo, mutha kuganiza kuti nkhaniyi si yaikulu kwambiri. Ndi masitepe oyenera komanso ndalama zambiri, titha kusintha ndikugonjetsa zovuta zapadziko lonse lapansi. Ndipo mukulondola, titha. Koma pokhapokha ngati titachitapo kanthu mwamsanga.

Chizoloŵezi choledzeretsa chimakhala chovuta kusiya mukakhala nacho nthawi yayitali. Zomwezo zitha kunenedwanso za chizolowezi chathu choipitsa chilengedwe chathu ndi kaboni. Tikamazengereza kusiya chizolowezicho, m'pamenenso kuyambiranso kumakhala kovuta kwambiri. Zaka XNUMX zilizonse maboma a padziko lonse asiya kuchitapo kanthu kuti achepetse kusintha kwa nyengo masiku ano kungatanthauze zaka makumi angapo ndi madola mabiliyoni ambiri kuti athetse mavuto ake m'tsogolomu. Ndipo ngati munawerenga nkhani zankhani yapitayi—kaya nkhani kapena zolosera za dziko—ndiye kuti mukudziwa mmene zotsatira zake zidzakhala zoipa kwa anthu.

Sitiyenera kutembenukira ku geoengineering kuti tikonze dziko lathu. Sitiyenera kudikirira mpaka anthu biliyoni atamwalira ndi njala ndi mikangano yachiwawa tisanachitepo kanthu. Zochita zing'onozing'ono lero zingapewe masoka ndi zosankha zoipa za mawa.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake weas sangasangalale ndi nkhaniyi. Ndi udindo wathu tonse kuchitapo kanthu. Izi zikutanthawuza kuchitapo kanthu kakang'ono kuti mukhale osamala kwambiri ndi zotsatira zomwe mumakhala nazo pa malo anu. Zimenezi zikutanthauza kuti mawu anu amveke. Ndipo izi zikutanthauza kudziphunzitsa nokha momwe pang'ono mungapangire kusiyana kwakukulu pakusintha kwanyengo. Mwamwayi, gawo lomaliza la mndandandawu ndi malo abwino ophunzirira momwe mungachitire izi: