Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

India ndi Pakistan; njala ndi fiefdoms: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 11:40

Kuneneratu kosagwirizana kumeneku kudzayang'ana kwambiri ku India ndi Pakistani geopolitics malinga ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, muwona mayiko awiri omwe akupikisana nawo akulimbana ndi ziwawa zapakhomo monga kusintha kwa nyengo kumawalanda. kuthekera kodyetsa anthu omwe akuchulukirachulukira. Mudzawona omenyana awiri akuyesera mwamphamvu kuti apitirizebe kulamulira mwa kukolezerana mkwiyo wa anthu, ndikuyambitsa nkhondo ya nyukiliya. Pamapeto pake, muwona mgwirizano wosayembekezeka kuti alowererepo polimbana ndi chiwonongeko cha nyukiliya, komanso kulimbikitsa kufalikira kwa nyukiliya ku Middle East.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale la India ndi Pakistan - silinafotokozedwe bwino. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, komanso chidziwitso chochokera kumagulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani, kuphatikiza Gywnne. Dyer, wolemba wamkulu pankhaniyi. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Nkhondo yamadzi

Palibe paliponse pa Dziko Lapansi pomwe pali chiwopsezo cha nkhondo ya nyukiliya yotheka kuposa pakati pa India ndi Pakistan. Chifukwa: madzi, kapena kani, kusowa kwake.

Ambiri a ku Central Asia amapeza madzi kuchokera ku mitsinje ya ku Asia yomwe ikuyenda kuchokera kumapiri a Himalaya ndi mapiri a Tibetan. Mitsinje imeneyi ndi monga Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, ndi Yangtze. M'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, kusintha kwa nyengo kudzasintha pang'onopang'ono pamadzi oundana akale omwe amakhala pamwamba pa mapiriwa. Poyamba, kutentha kwadzaoneni kudzachititsa kusefukira kwa madzi kwa m'chilimwe kwa zaka zambiri pamene madzi oundana ndi matalala a chipale chofeŵa amasungunuka m'mitsinje, kufalikira kumayiko ozungulira.

Koma tsiku likadzafika (chakumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040) pamene mapiri a Himalaya adzachotsedwa madzi oundana, mitsinje isanu ndi umodzi yomwe tatchula pamwambapa idzagwa mthunzi wa momwe analili kale. Kuchuluka kwa madzi omwe zitukuko ku Asia konse zadalira kwa zaka zikwizikwi zidzachepa kwambiri. Pamapeto pake, mitsinje iyi ndi yofunika kwambiri pakukhazikika kwa mayiko onse amakono m'derali. Kugwa kwawo kudzakulitsa mikangano yambiri yomwe yakhala ikuphulika kwa zaka zambiri.

Mizu ya mikangano

Mitsinje yomwe ikucheperachepera sichingapweteke India kwambiri, chifukwa mbewu zake zambiri zimadyetsedwa ndi mvula. Kumbali ina, dziko la Pakistan lili ndi malo othirira kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zikuchititsa ulimi kukhala wotheka m’dziko limene likanakhala chipululu. Gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a chakudya chake chimabzalidwa ndi madzi otengedwa mumtsinje wa Indus, makamaka kuchokera ku mitsinje ya Indus, Jhelum, ndi Chenab. Kutayika kwa madzi kuchokera mumtsinjewu kungakhale tsoka, makamaka popeza chiwerengero cha anthu aku Pakistani chikuyembekezeka kukula kuchokera pa 188 miliyoni mu 2015 kufika pa 254 miliyoni pofika 2040.

Chiyambireni Magawo mu 1947, mitsinje isanu mwa mitsinje isanu ndi umodzi yomwe imadyetsa mtsinje wa Indus (umene Pakistan imadalira) ili m'madera olamulidwa ndi India. Mitsinje yambiri imakhalanso ndi magwero ake m'chigawo cha Kashmir, dera lomwe anthu amatsutsidwa kosatha. Ndi madzi aku Pakistan omwe amayendetsedwa makamaka ndi mdani wamkulu, kulimbana sikungapeweke.

Kusatetezeka kwa zakudya

Kutsika kwa kupezeka kwa madzi kungapangitse ulimi ku Pakistan kukhala kosatheka. Pakadali pano, dziko la India likhala ndi vuto lofananalo pamene chiwerengero cha anthu chikukwera kuchokera pa 1.2 biliyoni lero kufika pafupifupi 1.6 biliyoni pofika 2040.

Kafukufuku wopangidwa ndi bungwe la anthu oganiza bwino aku India, Integrated Research and Action for Development, anapeza kuti kukwera kwa madigiri 25 Celsius pa kutentha kwapakati pa dziko lonse kungachepetse chakudya cha ku India ndi XNUMX peresenti. Kusintha kwa nyengo kungapangitse kuti nyengo zachilimwe (zomwe alimi ambiri amadalira) zikhale zosawerengeka, komanso zingawononge kukula kwa mbewu zamakono za ku India chifukwa zambiri sizimera bwino pa kutentha.

Mwachitsanzo, maphunziro oyendetsedwa ndi University of Reading pamitundu iwiri ya mpunga yomwe imabzalidwa kwambiri, ku lowland Indica ndi upland Japonica, adapeza kuti zonsezi zinali pachiwopsezo cha kutentha kwambiri. Ngati kutentha kupitirira madigiri 35 pa nthawi ya maluwa, zomera zimakhala zosabala, zomwe zimapereka mbewu zochepa, ngati zilipo. Mayiko ambiri otentha ndi aku Asia kumene mpunga uli chakudya chachikulu chomwe chili kale m'mphepete mwa madera otentha a Goldilocks ndipo kutentha kwina kulikonse kungabweretse tsoka.

Zinthu zina zomwe zikuyenera kuchitika ndi monga momwe anthu aku India omwe akukula mwachangu akutengera zomwe azungu akuyembekeza kukhala ndi chakudya chochuluka. Mukaganizira kuti lerolino, dziko la India silimakula mokwanira kuti lidyetse anthu ake ndiponso kuti pofika m’ma 2040, misika yapadziko lonse yambewu yapadziko lonse ingakhale ikulephera kukwaniritsa zokolola zapakhomo; zinthu zoyambitsa zipolowe zapakhomo zidzayamba kukula.

(Chidziwitso chambali: Zipolowe izi zifooketsa kwambiri boma, ndikutsegula khomo kuti migwirizano ya zigawo ndi maboma kulanda ulamuliro ndi kufuna kudzilamulira kochulukirapo m'magawo awo.)

Zonse zomwe zanenedwa, zovuta zilizonse zakusowa kwa chakudya zomwe India akuyembekezeka kukumana nazo, Pakistan idzakhala yoyipa kwambiri. Ndi madzi awo aulimi omwe amachokera ku mitsinje yowuma, gawo laulimi la Pakistani silingathe kupanga chakudya chokwanira kukwaniritsa zosowa. Posakhalitsa, mitengo yazakudya idzakwera, mkwiyo wa anthu udzaphulika, ndipo chipani cholamulira cha Pakistan chidzapeza njira yosavuta yopulumutsira ku India - pambuyo pake, mitsinje yawo imadutsa ku India ndipo India imapatutsa gawo lalikulu kuti likwaniritse zosowa zawo zaulimi. .

Ndale zankhondo

Pamene vuto la madzi ndi chakudya likuyamba kusokoneza India ndi Pakistan kuchokera mkati, maboma a mayiko awiriwa ayesa kuwongolera mkwiyo wa anthu kwa ena. Mayiko padziko lonse lapansi adzawona izi zikubwera mtunda wa kilomita imodzi ndipo atsogoleri a dziko adzayesetsa kuchitapo kanthu kuti athetse mtendere pazifukwa zosavuta: nkhondo yapakati pa India ndi Pakistan yomwe ikubwera idzakula kukhala nkhondo ya nyukiliya popanda opambana.

Mosasamala kanthu za amene adzamenye choyamba, maiko onse awiri adzakhala ndi zida zanyukiliya zokwanira kuti aphwasule malo okhala anthu ambiri. Nkhondo yoteroyo imatenga maola ochepera 48, kapena mpaka zida zanyukiliya za mbali zonse ziwiri zitatha. Pasanathe maola 12, anthu theka la biliyoni amatha kuphulika chifukwa cha kuphulika kwa nyukiliya, ndipo ena 100-200 miliyoni amafa atangotsala pang'ono kukhudzidwa ndi ma radiation ndi kusowa kwazinthu. Zida zamagetsi ndi zamagetsi m'maiko onse awiriwa zitha kuzimitsidwa kwamuyaya chifukwa cha kuphulika kwa ma elekitiromagineti a zida zanyukiliya zochepazo zomwe zimalumikizidwa ndi chitetezo chamtundu uliwonse cha laser- ndi missile-based ballistic ballistic. Potsirizira pake, mphamvu zambiri za nyukiliya (zinthu zotulutsa mpweya zomwe zimawomberedwa kumtunda) zidzakhazikika ndikuyambitsa ngozi zazikulu zathanzi kumayiko ozungulira monga Iran ndi Afghanistan kumadzulo ndi Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, ndi China kummawa.

Zomwe zili pamwambapa sizikhala zovomerezeka kwa osewera akuluakulu apadziko lonse lapansi, omwe pofika zaka za 2040 adzakhala US, China, ndi Russia. Onse adzalowererapo, kupereka thandizo lankhondo, mphamvu, ndi chakudya. Pakistan, pokhala yosimidwa kwambiri, idzagwiritsa ntchito izi kuti ithandizidwe ndi zinthu zambiri momwe zingathere, pomwe India adzafuna zomwezo. Dziko la Russia likhoza kuwonjezereka ndi kuitanitsa zakudya kuchokera kunja. China ipereka mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa komanso za Thorium. Ndipo US idzatumiza asilikali ake apamadzi ndi apamlengalenga, kupereka zitsimikizo zankhondo kumbali zonse ziwiri ndikuwonetsetsa kuti palibe zida za nyukiliya zomwe zimadutsa malire a Indian-Pakistani.

Komabe, chithandizocho sichidzabwera popanda zingwe. Pofuna kuthetsa vutoli, maulamulirowa adzafuna kuti mbali zonse ziwiri zipereke zida zawo zanyukiliya kuti apitirize thandizo. Tsoka ilo, izi siziwuluka ndi Pakistan. Zida zake za nyukiliya zidzakhala ngati chitsimikizo cha bata la mkati mwa chakudya, mphamvu, ndi thandizo lankhondo zomwe adzapanga. Popanda iwo, Pakistan ilibe mwayi pankhondo yamtsogolo yamtsogolo ndi India komanso palibe njira yopititsira patsogolo thandizo kuchokera kunja.

Kusakhazikika kumeneku sikudzazindikirika ndi mayiko achiarabu ozungulira, omwe aliyense aziyesetsa kupeza zida zanyukiliya zawo kuti apeze thandizo lofananalo kuchokera kumayiko olamulira padziko lonse lapansi. Kukwera kumeneku kupangitsa kuti Middle East ikhale yosakhazikika, ndipo mwina kukakamiza Israeli kukulitsa mapulogalamu ake a nyukiliya ndi asitikali.

M'dziko lamtsogolo lino, sipadzakhala njira zosavuta zothetsera.

Madzi osefukira ndi othawa kwawo

Kupatulapo nkhondo, tiyeneranso kuzindikira momwe nyengo idzakhudzire derali. Mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja ku India idzakanthidwa ndi mphepo zamkuntho zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira, zomwe zikuchotsa nzika zambiri zosauka m'nyumba zawo. Pakadali pano, Bangladesh ikhala ikugunda kwambiri. Gawo lachitatu lakumwera la dziko lake, kumene 60 miliyoni akukhala pakali pano, likukhala pansi pa mlingo wa nyanja; pamene madzi a m’nyanja akuchulukirachulukira, dera lonselo lili pachiwopsezo cha kutha m’nyanja. Izi zidzayika dziko la India m'malo ovuta, chifukwa liyenera kuyeza udindo wake wothandiza anthu motsutsana ndi zosowa zake zenizeni zachitetezo poletsa mamiliyoni othawa kwawo aku Bangladesh kuti asasefukire kumalire ake.

Ku Bangladesh, moyo ndi moyo womwe watayika udzakhala waukulu, ndipo palibe chomwe chingakhale cholakwa chawo. Pamapeto pake, kutayika kumeneku kwa dera lomwe lili ndi anthu ambiri mdziko lawo lidzakhala vuto la China ndi Kumadzulo, chifukwa cha utsogoleri wawo pakuwononga nyengo.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Zomwe mwawerengazi ndi zoneneratu, osati zenizeni. Komanso, ndizoneneratu zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingatheke ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa 2040s kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo, zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwe mwatsatanetsatane. Chofunika kwambiri, zoneneratu zomwe zafotokozedwa pamwambapa ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwa nyengo, kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo kudzera pa maulalo ali pansipa: