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Kodi Artificial Superintelligence idzawononga anthu? Tsogolo la Artificial Intelligence P4

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lolemba, 11/30/2020 - 10:35

Pali zolengedwa zina zomwe mayiko amakumana nazo. Izi ndi zopanga pomwe chilichonse chimadalira kukhala woyamba, ndipo chilichonse chocheperako chingatanthauze chiwopsezo chamoyo kupulumuka kwa dziko.

Mbiri yofotokoza zinthu zatsopanozi sizibwera nthawi zambiri, koma zikachitika, dziko limayima ndipo tsogolo lodziwikiratu limakhala losawoneka bwino.

Kupangidwa komaliza kotereku kudawonekera panthawi yoyipa kwambiri ya WWII. Pamene chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha chipani cha Nazi chinkagwira ntchito m’mbali zonse za dziko lakale, m’dziko latsopano, makamaka mkati mwa gulu lankhondo lachinsinsi kunja kwa Los Alamos, Allies anali akugwira ntchito mwakhama pa chida chothetsa zida zonse.

Ntchitoyi inali yaying'ono poyamba, koma idakula ndikulemba anthu 130,000 ochokera ku US, UK, ndi Canada, kuphatikiza oganiza bwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi panthawiyo. Codenamed the Manhattan Project ndikupatsidwa ndalama zopanda malire - pafupifupi $ 23 biliyoni mu madola a 2018 - gulu lankhondo lanzeru la anthu pamapeto pake lidakwanitsa kupanga bomba loyamba la nyukiliya. Posakhalitsa, WWII inatha ndi ma atomiki awiri.

Zida za nyukiliya zimenezi zinayambitsa nyengo ya atomiki, zinayambitsa magwero atsopano amphamvu, ndipo zinapatsa anthu mphamvu yodziwononga yokha m’mphindi zochepa chabe—chinthu chimene tinachipeŵa mosasamala kanthu za Nkhondo Ya Mawu.

Kulengedwa kwa artificial superintelligence (ASI) ndi mbiri inanso yofotokoza za kupangidwa komwe mphamvu zake (zonse zabwino ndi zowononga) zimaposa bomba la nyukiliya.

M'mutu wotsiriza wa mndandanda wa Future of Artificial Intelligence, tinafufuza zomwe ASI ndi momwe ofufuza amakonzekera tsiku limodzi kumanga imodzi. M'mutu uno, tiwona zomwe mabungwe akutsogolera kafukufuku wanzeru zopangapanga (AI), zomwe ASI ingafune ikapeza chidziwitso chonga chamunthu, komanso momwe ingawpsyeze umunthu ngati itayendetsedwa molakwika kapena ngati itagwa mchikoka cha anthu. machitidwe omwe si abwino kwambiri.

Ndani akugwira ntchito yopanga nzeru zapamwamba?

Popeza kuti kupangidwa kwa ASI kudzakhala kofunikira kwambiri m'mbiri ya anthu komanso momwe kungakhalire ndi mwayi waukulu kwa amene adayambitsa, siziyenera kudabwitsa kumva kuti magulu ambiri akugwira ntchito molakwika.

(Mosalunjika, tikutanthauza kugwira ntchito pa kafukufuku wa AI yemwe pamapeto pake adzapanga woyamba Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), izi zidzatsogolera ku ASI yoyamba posachedwa.)

Poyamba, zikafika pamitu, atsogoleri omveka bwino mu kafukufuku wapamwamba wa AI ndi makampani apamwamba kwambiri ku US ndi China. Kutsogolo kwa US, izi zikuphatikizapo makampani monga Google, IBM, ndi Microsoft, ndipo ku China, izi zikuphatikizapo makampani monga Tencent, Baidu, ndi Alibaba. Koma popeza kufufuza kwa AI ndikotsika mtengo poyerekeza ndi kupanga chinthu chakuthupi, monga choyatsira nyukiliya yabwinoko, uwunso ndi gawo lomwe mabungwe ang'onoang'ono amathanso kupikisana nawo, monga mayunivesite, oyambitsa, ndi ... Icho).

Koma kuseri kwa ziwonetsero, kukankhira kwenikweni kuseri kwa kafukufuku wa AI kukuchokera ku maboma ndi asitikali awo. Mphotho yazachuma ndi yankhondo yokhala woyamba kupanga ASI ndiyabwino kwambiri (yofotokozedwa pansipa) kuti ikhale pachiwopsezo chobwerera kumbuyo. Ndipo kuopsa kokhala womalizira nkosavomerezeka, makamaka ku maulamuliro ena.

Chifukwa cha zinthu izi, mtengo wochepa wofufuza AI, ntchito zopanda malire zamalonda za AI yapamwamba, ndi mwayi wachuma ndi usilikali wokhala woyamba kupanga ASI, ofufuza ambiri a AI amakhulupirira kuti kulengedwa kwa ASI sikungalephereke.

Kodi tidzapanga liti nzeru zapamwamba

Mu mutu wathu wokhudza ma AGI, tidatchula momwe kafukufuku wa akatswiri apamwamba a AI adakhulupirira kuti tidzapanga AGI yoyamba mwachiyembekezo pofika 2022, zenizeni pofika 2040, komanso mopanda chiyembekezo pofika 2075.

Ndipo m'malo athu mutu wotsiriza, tidafotokoza momwe kupanga ASI nthawi zambiri kumakhala zotsatira zolangiza AGI kuti idzipangitse yokhayokha mopanda malire ndikuipatsa zofunikira ndi ufulu wochitira zimenezo.

Pachifukwa ichi, pamene AGI ikhoza kutenga zaka makumi angapo kuti ipange, kupanga ASI kungatenge zaka zochepa chabe.

Mfundo iyi ndi yofanana ndi lingaliro la 'computing overhang,' yomwe yaperekedwa pepala, yolembedwa ndi oganiza bwino a AI Luke Muehlhauser ndi Nick Bostrom. Kwenikweni, ngati kupangidwa kwa AGI kupitirire kutsalira m'mbuyo momwe makompyuta akupitira patsogolo, mothandizidwa ndi Lamulo la Moore, ndiye kuti pofika nthawi yomwe ofufuza apanga AGI, padzakhala mphamvu zambiri zotsika mtengo zamakompyuta zomwe AGI idzakhala nayo. imayenera kulumpha mwachangu kufika pamlingo wa ASI.

Mwanjira ina, mukamaliza kuwerenga mitu yolengeza kuti kampani ina yaukadaulo idapanga AGI yowona, ndiye yembekezerani kulengeza kwa ASI yoyamba posachedwa.

Mkati mwa malingaliro a intelligence yochita kupanga?

Chabwino, ndiye tazindikira kuti osewera akulu ambiri omwe ali ndi matumba akuya akufufuza AI. Kenako AGI yoyamba itapangidwa, tiwona maboma apadziko lonse lapansi (ankhondo) akuyatsa zobiriwira akukankhira ku ASI posakhalitsa kuti akhale oyamba kupambana mpikisano wapadziko lonse wa AI (ASI).

Koma ASI iyi ikapangidwa, iganiza bwanji? Idzafuna chiyani?

Galu waubwenzi, njovu yosamalira, loboti yokongola—monga anthu, timakhala ndi chizolowezi chofuna kugwirizana ndi zinthu kudzera m’maganizo mwathu, mwachitsanzo, kugwiritsa ntchito mikhalidwe ya anthu ku zinthu ndi nyama. Ichi ndichifukwa chake lingaliro loyambirira lachilengedwe lomwe anthu amakhala nalo poganiza za ASI ndikuti akangozindikira mwanjira ina, amaganiza komanso kuchita chimodzimodzi kwa ife.

Chabwino, osati kwenikweni.

likukula. Choyamba, chimene ambiri amaiwala n’chakuti maganizo ali ndi malire. Njira zomwe timaganizira zimapangidwa ndi chilengedwe chathu, zomwe takumana nazo, makamaka ndi biology yathu. Poyamba anafotokozedwa mu mutu wachitatu zathu Tsogolo la Chisinthiko cha Anthu mndandanda, taganizirani chitsanzo cha ubongo wathu:

Ndi ubongo wathu womwe umatithandiza kuzindikira dziko lotizungulira. Ndipo sizimatero poyandama pamwamba pa mitu yathu, kuyang'ana pozungulira, ndi kutilamulira ndi Xbox controller; imachita izi mwa kutsekeredwa m'bokosi (ma noggins athu) ndikukonza chidziwitso chilichonse chomwe chaperekedwa kuchokera ku ziwalo zathu zomva - maso athu, mphuno, makutu, ndi zina.

Koma monga momwe anthu ogontha kapena akhungu amakhala ndi moyo waung'ono kwambiri poyerekeza ndi anthu omwe ali ndi mphamvu, chifukwa cha zofooka zomwe kulumala kwawo kumayika pa momwe angadziwire dziko lapansi, zomwezo zikhoza kunenedwa kwa anthu onse chifukwa cha zofooka za maziko athu. gulu la zomverera.

Taganizirani izi: Maso athu amaona zinthu zosakwana gawo limodzi mwa magawo XNUMX miliyoni a mafunde a kuwala. Sitingathe kuwona kuwala kwa gamma. Sitingathe kuwona ma X-ray. Sitingathe kuwona kuwala kwa ultraviolet. Ndipo osandiyambitsa pa infrared, ma microwaves, ndi mafunde a wailesi!

Nthawi zonse, lingalirani momwe moyo wanu ungakhalire, momwe mungadziwire dziko lapansi, momwe malingaliro anu angagwirire ntchito ngati mutha kuwona kuposa momwe kuwala kumalola maso anu. Mofananamo, lingalirani mmene mungalionere dziko ngati kanunkhiridwe kanu kangakhale kofanana ndi ka galu kapena ngati mphamvu yanu yakumva ingafanane ndi ya njovu.

Monga anthu, kwenikweni timawona dziko lapansi kudzera pachimake, ndipo izi zimawonekera m'malingaliro omwe tidachita kusintha kuti timvetsetse malingaliro ocheperako.

Pakadali pano, ASI yoyamba idzabadwira mkati mwa kompyuta yayikulu. M'malo mwa ziwalo, zolowetsa zomwe angazipeze zikuphatikiza ma dataset akuluakulu, mwina (mwina) ngakhale kupeza intaneti yokha. Ofufuza atha kuyipatsa mwayi wopeza makamera a CCTV ndi ma maikolofoni amzinda wonse, chidziwitso chochokera ku ma drones ndi ma satelayiti, komanso mawonekedwe a thupi la loboti kapena matupi.

Monga momwe mungaganizire, malingaliro obadwa mkati mwa makina apamwamba kwambiri, omwe ali ndi mwayi wopita ku intaneti, kwa mamiliyoni a maso ndi makutu amagetsi ndi matupi amtundu wina wamtundu wina wapamwamba sangaganize mosiyana ndi ife, koma maganizo omwe angakhale omveka. Zokhudza zonsezo ziyenera kukhala zapamwamba kwambiri kuposa ifenso. Ili ndi lingaliro lomwe lidzakhala lachilendo kwa ife eni komanso ku mtundu wina uliwonse wamoyo padziko lapansi.

Goals. Chinthu china chimene anthu amaganiza ndi chakuti ASI ikafika pamlingo wina wanzeru, idzazindikira nthawi yomweyo chikhumbo chofuna kukhala ndi zolinga ndi zolinga zake. Koma zimenezinso si zoona.

Ofufuza ambiri a AI amakhulupirira kuti nzeru zapamwamba za ASI ndi zolinga zake ndi "orthogonal," ndiko kuti, mosasamala kanthu kuti zimakhala zanzeru bwanji, zolinga za ASI zidzakhala zofanana.

Kotero ngati AI idapangidwa poyambirira kuti ipange thewera wabwino, kuchulukitsa kubwereranso pamsika, kapena kukonza njira zogonjetsera mdani pankhondo, ikafika pamlingo wa ASI, cholinga choyambirira sichingasinthe; chomwe chidzasinthe ndikuchita bwino kwa ASI kukwaniritsa zolingazo.

Koma apa pali ngozi. Ngati ASI yomwe imadzipangitsa kukhala ndi cholinga china, ndiye kuti ndibwino kuti titsimikizire kuti ikwaniritsa cholinga chomwe chikugwirizana ndi zolinga za anthu. Apo ayi, zotsatira zake zikhoza kukhala zakupha.

Kodi luntha lochita kupanga limapereka chiwopsezo chopezeka kwa anthu?

Nanga bwanji ngati ASI imasulidwa padziko lapansi? Ngati ikukonzekera kuyang'anira msika wamasheya kapena kuwonetsetsa kuti asitikali aku US, kodi ASI sidzikhala yokha mkati mwazolinga zenizenizo?

Mwinanso.

Pakadali pano takambirana momwe ASI ingakhudzire zolinga zomwe adapatsidwa poyambirira komanso kuchita mwankhanza pokwaniritsa zolingazo. Chomwe chimapangitsa kuti wothandizila akwaniritse zolinga zake m'njira zabwino kwambiri pokhapokha atapatsidwa chifukwa chosachitira.

Mwachitsanzo, woganiza bwino adzabwera ndi zigoli zingapo (monga zolinga, zolinga za zida, miyala yolowera) zomwe zingathandize kuti akwaniritse cholinga chake chachikulu. Kwa anthu, cholinga chathu chachikulu ndi kuberekana, kupatsirana majini anu (mwachitsanzo, kusafa kwachindunji). Zolinga zazing'ono za izi zimatha kukhala:

Kupulumuka, mwa kupeza chakudya ndi madzi, kukula ndi mphamvu, kuphunzira kudziteteza kapena kuyika ndalama mumitundu yosiyanasiyana yachitetezo, ndi zina zambiri.
Kukopa mnzako, pochita masewera olimbitsa thupi, kukulitsa umunthu wokopa, kuvala bwino, ndi zina.
Kubereka ana, kupeza maphunziro, kupeza ntchito yolipira kwambiri, kugula misampha ya moyo wapakati, ndi zina zotero.

Kwa ambiri aife, tikhala akapolo kupyola zigoli zing'onozing'ono zonsezi, ndi ena ambiri, ndi chiyembekezo kuti pamapeto pake, tidzakwaniritsa cholinga chachikulu cha kubalana.

Koma ngati cholinga chachikuluchi, kapena china chilichonse mwazofunikira kwambiri, chikawopsezedwa, ambiri aife titha kuchita zodzitchinjiriza kunja kwa zomwe timakonda - zomwe zimaphatikizapo kubera, kuba, ngakhale kupha.

Mofananamo, m’gulu la nyama, kunja kwa malire a makhalidwe abwino aumunthu, nyama zambiri sizingaganize kaŵiri konse za kupha chirichonse chimene chingadziwopseza iwo eni kapena ana awo.

ASI yamtsogolo sidzakhala yosiyana.

Koma m'malo mwa ana, ASI idzayang'ana pa cholinga choyambirira chomwe chinapangidwira, ndipo pofuna kukwaniritsa cholinga ichi, ngati apeza gulu linalake la anthu, kapena ngakhale umunthu wonse, ndi cholepheretsa kukwaniritsa zolinga zake. , ndiye ... idzapanga chisankho choyenera.

(Apa ndipamene mutha kulumikiza zochitika zilizonse zokhudzana ndi AI, tsiku lachiwonongeko zomwe mudawerengapo m'buku kapena filimu yomwe mumakonda kwambiri ya sayansi.)

Izi ndizovuta kwambiri zomwe ofufuza a AI akuda nkhawa nazo. ASI sadzachita chifukwa cha udani kapena choipa, kusasamala, mofanana ndi momwe ogwira ntchito yomangamanga sangaganizire mobwerezabwereza za bulldozing phiri la nyerere pomanga nsanja yatsopano ya condo.

Cholemba cham'mbali. Panthawiyi, ena mwa inu mungakhale mukuganiza kuti, "Kodi ofufuza a AI sangangosintha zolinga zazikulu za ASI pambuyo pozindikira kuti ikuchita?"

Osati kwenikweni.

ASI ikakhwima, kuyesa kulikonse kosintha zolinga zake zoyambirira kumatha kuwoneka ngati kowopseza, komanso komwe kungafune kuchitapo kanthu kuti adziteteze. Pogwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chonse cha kubereka kwaumunthu kuyambira kale, zimakhala ngati wakuba akuwopseza kuba khanda m’mimba mwa mayi woyembekezera—mungakhale wotsimikiza kuti mayi angachite zinthu monyanyira kuteteza mwana wake.

Apanso, sitikunena za chowerengera pano, koma munthu 'wamoyo' ndipo tsiku lina adzakhala wanzeru kwambiri kuposa anthu onse padziko lapansi.

Zosadziwika

Kuseri kwa nthano ya Bokosi la Pandora ndi chowonadi chochepa chodziwika bwino chomwe anthu nthawi zambiri amaiwala: kutsegula bokosi sikungalephereke, ngati sichoncho ndi inu kuposa munthu wina. Chidziwitso choletsedwa chimakopa kwambiri kuti chisatsekedwe kosatha.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake kuyesa kukwaniritsa mgwirizano wapadziko lonse woletsa kufufuza konse kwa AI komwe kungapangitse ASI kukhala kopanda pake - pali mabungwe ambiri omwe akugwira ntchito paukadaulo uwu movomerezeka komanso mobisa.

Pamapeto pake, sitikudziwa chomwe gulu latsopanoli, ASI iyi idzatanthauza kwa anthu, ukadaulo, ndale, mtendere ndi nkhondo. Anthufe tatsala pang'ono kuyambitsanso moto ndipo komwe chilengedwechi chimatitsogolera sichikudziwika.

Tikayang’ana m’mbuyo ku mutu woyamba wa nkhanizi, chinthu chimodzi chimene tikudziwa bwino n’chakuti luntha ndi mphamvu. Nzeru ndi kulamulira. Anthu amatha kuyendera nyama zowopsa kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi kumalo osungiramo nyama omwe amakhala kwawo osati chifukwa chakuti ndife amphamvu kuposa nyamazi, koma chifukwa ndife anzeru kwambiri.

Poganizira zovuta zomwe zingakhudzidwe, ASI ikugwiritsa ntchito luntha lake lalikulu kuchita zinthu zomwe zitha kuwopseza kupulumuka kwa mtundu wa anthu mwachindunji kapena mosadziwa, tili ndi udindo wathu kuyesa kupanga zodzitchinjiriza zomwe zingalole anthu kukhalabe m'madalaivala. mpando-izi ndiye mutu wa mutu wotsatira.