Zowona Zam'tsogolo
M'dziko labizinesi ndikukonzekera njira, zomwe zikuchitika ndizochitika zazikulu zomwe zimapanga tsogolo labwino.
Chifukwa chiyani mayendedwe ali ofunikira kwambiri kuti bizinesi ikhalebe ndi moyo?
Kodi. Blockbuster. Myspace. Zoseweretsa R Us. Kodi makampaniwa akufanana chiyani?
Iwo adalephera kuyembekezera zomwe zikuchitika m'mafakitale awo. Ndipo pamene zosokonezazi zinafika mosapeŵeka, iwo analephera kutembenuka ndi kusintha.
M'dziko lazamalonda ndikukonzekera njira, zochitika ndizochitika zazikulu zomwe zikupita kumalo enaake, zomwe zimabweretsa kusintha kwa teknoloji, bizinesi, boma, anthu, ndi zina za moyo wathu. Ndiwofunika kwambiri pakuwoneratu zam'tsogolo - kuyembekezera ndi kukonzekera zam'tsogolo. Makhalidwe samawonekera kunja kwa mpweya wochepa; nthawi zambiri amatuluka kuchokera mndandanda wa zochitika zowoneka ngati zosagwirizana kapena madontho osagwirizana pamphepete omwe pambuyo pake amawonekera ngati chikhalidwe cha anthu ambiri. Zosowa zathu zaumunthu nthawi zambiri zimayendetsa kuwonekera ndi kusinthika kwa zochitika, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimayendetsedwa ndiukadaulo.
Chifukwa chiyani mayendedwe ali ofunikira?
Zochitika ndi zofunika kwambiri chifukwa zimatithandiza kuyembekezera ndi kukonzekera zam'tsogolo. Zimatithandiza kumvetsa kumene dziko likupita komanso kusankha zochita mwanzeru. Mwachitsanzo, makampani omwe adazindikira kusintha kwa machitidwe a ogula koyambirira, kupangitsa kusintha kwakukulu kuchokera ku mkaka wa ng'ombe kupita ku mkaka wopangidwa ndi mbewu, atha kukhala okonzekera bwino mtsogolo kuposa omwe sanatero. Kuwona ndi kumvetsetsa zomwe zikuchitika kungapereke mwayi wopikisana, kupangitsa mabungwe kugwiritsa ntchito mwayi wamtsogolo ndikukhala olimba mtima kusintha.
Zochitika zimatha kubweretsa kusokonezeka kwakukulu komwe kungapangitse mafakitale kufika m'mphepete, koma uwu ndi mwayi wakukula. Malinga ndi 2022 lipoti ndi McKinsey, mabungwe omwe amayang'ana kwambiri zaluso panthawi zovuta nthawi zambiri amapambana omwe akupikisana nawo omwe amabwerera m'mbuyo. Otsogola otsogolawa, motsogozedwa ndi zolinga zolakalaka, amapanga zisankho zolimba mtima ndikumanga moleza mtima, zomwe zimawathandiza kuti azitha kusintha mwachangu kumitundu yatsopano yamabizinesi potengera kusintha kwamphamvu.
Amamvetsetsa kuti zatsopano ziyenera kukhazikitsidwa pamlingo waukulu, 70% ikunena za kutulutsidwa kwakukulu kwa zinthu zatsopano, ntchito, kapena mitundu yamabizinesi m'zaka zisanu zapitazi. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, anthu amene angoyamba kumene kuchita zinthu mopanda kudzipereka amangoika maganizo awo pa zimene atulukira, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti maganizo atsopano ndi nkhani ya kupanga malingaliro.
Kodi mitundu yosiyanasiyana yamayendedwe ndi iti?
Megatrends
Megatrends ndikusintha kwakukulu, kwanthawi yayitali komwe kumakhudza maboma, madera, ndi chuma padziko lonse lapansi. Nthawi zambiri zimakhala zaka makumi angapo ndipo zimatha kukhala ndi zotsatirapo zazikulu. Zitsanzo ndi kukwera kwa mizinda, kusintha kwa nyengo, ndi kukwera kwaukadaulo wa digito.
Macrotrends
Macrotrends ndikusintha kwakukulu kocheperako pang'ono kuposa ma megatrend koma kumakhala ndi zotsatira zambiri. Nthawi zambiri amakhala zaka 5 mpaka 10. Chitsanzo chikhoza kukhala kusintha kwa ntchito yakutali.
Wachinyamata
Ma Microtrends ndi ang'onoang'ono, machitidwe ochulukirapo omwe angakhudze makampani ena kapena kuchuluka kwa anthu. Nthawi zambiri amakhala kwa nthawi yayitali, nthawi zambiri zaka 1-5. Chitsanzo chikhoza kukhala kukwera kwa moyo wosataya ziro pakati pa ogula amakhalidwe abwino.
Mafashoni
Mafashoni ndi akanthawi kochepa omwe amatchuka koma amazimiririka mwachangu. Nthawi zambiri amakhala miyezi ingapo mpaka zaka zingapo. Zitsanzo zikuphatikizapo mafashoni kapena zovuta za intaneti.
Zotsutsana ndi zochitika
Zotsutsana ndizomwe zimatsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika kapena zomwe zimachitika kwambiri. Mwachitsanzo, njira yotsutsa ikhoza kukhala kukwera kwa ma detox a digito poyankha kuchuluka kwa digito.
Zochitika zanyengo
Zomwe zimachitika munyengo ndi zodziwikiratu zosintha zomwe zimachitika mozungulira, monga kuchulukira kogulira patchuthi kapena kusintha kwamafashoni.
mumaganiza makampani
Mayendedwe amakampani ndi masinthidwe kapena kusintha komwe kumakhudzana ndi bizinesi inayake. Mwachitsanzo, kukwera kwa Viwanda 4.0 kutsegulira njira yopangira makina opanga ma digito.
Zoperewera zamayendedwe
Poyembekezera ndi kusanthula mayendedwe amatha kuzindikira madera opangira zatsopano ndi kukula, kudziwitsa zakukonzekera bwino, ndikuwongolera kupanga zisankho, alinso ndi malire. Zochitika sizili zophweka nthawi zonse kuziwona, ndipo zimatha kutengera zinthu zosiyanasiyana, kuzipangitsa kukhala zovuta komanso nthawi zina zosayembekezereka.
Kuphatikiza apo, zochitika zakale zimangotifikitsa mpaka pano. Ngakhale zoneneratu nthawi zina zimatha kuphonya chizindikiro, kulosera kungathandize kuyembekezera momwe zochitika zowongoka komanso zosintha zingasinthire. Komabe, sizothandiza kwambiri pankhani yofotokozera zovuta, zolumikizana, ndi zomwe zikutuluka za zochitika zosokoneza.
Njira Zogwiritsidwa Ntchito Pozindikira ndi Kusanthula Zomwe Zachitika
Pali njira zingapo zozindikirira ndi kusanthula zochitika. Chimodzi chimakhudza kusanthula mosalekeza zizindikiro za kusintha komwe kungatheke ndikugwiritsa ntchito njira monga zoyankhulana kuti mufufuze mozama za zomwe zikuchitika ngati zolozera zakusintha kwamtsogolo. Kutengera ndi zomwe zachitika pa kafukufukuyu, mawonekedwe amazindikiridwa kuti athe kuyembekezera zomwe zikugwirizana ndi zomwe mukukumana nazo. Chilichonse chimakhala ndi mafotokozedwe, ma siginecha ogwirizana, komanso kuthekera kwamtsogolo komwe muyenera kuyang'ana pa radar yanu.
Njira ina ikugwiritsidwa ntchito deta, zidziwitso, zomanga, ndi ukadaulo kuchokera mkati ndi kunja kwa bungwe kuti apange zochitika zapadera komanso zofunikira. Njirayi imaphatikizanso kuyang'ana chilengedwe kuti mupeze zinthu zomwe zingayambitse kusintha, kuzindikira zomwe zikubwera m'tsogolo, ndikupanga ndikuchita nawo zochitika ndi nkhani zamtsogolo. Njira iyi imathandizira kuyembekezera ndikukhazikitsa tsogolo labwino lomwe likukhudza anthu m'dziko losatsimikizika.
Palinso njira zosiyanasiyana kutengera ngati mukuyang'ana mafotokozedwe osakanizidwa azomwe zikuchitika kapena zopangira zowonera. Kwa wina yemwe wangoyamba kumene ndi zowoneratu, zida zambiri zilipo zozindikiritsa ndi kusanthula zomwe zikuchitika, monga ntchito zowonera za AI kapena nsanja zowongolera. Mapulatifomuwa ali ndi masauzande ambiri - kuchokera ku mega kupita kumayendedwe ang'onoang'ono - ndi kufotokozera kwawo.
Nazi zina mwa njira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pofufuza zomwe zikuchitika:
Kafukufuku wamakono
Kufufuza kwa Trends kumaphatikizapo kuzindikira ndi kusanthula machitidwe mu data kuti athe kulosera zam'tsogolo. Ndi chida chofunikira kwambiri chomvetsetsa momwe ogula amagwirira ntchito, momwe bizinesi imagwirira ntchito, komanso njira zomwe zingachitike m'mafakitale osiyanasiyana.
Pali njira ziwiri zazikulu zopangira kafukufuku wamakhalidwe:
- Kafukufuku woyambirira: Izi zimaphatikizapo kuyanjana kwachindunji ndi magulu osiyanasiyana monga makasitomala, otsogolera, akatswiri ochokera m'magawo asayansi ndi mafakitale, ogwiritsa ntchito nthawi zonse, ogwira ntchito, ndi ogulitsa. Njira, monga zokambirana za akatswiri ndi ogwira nawo ntchito kapena kafukufuku wa Delphi, angagwiritsidwe ntchito moyenera m'njira imeneyi.
- Kafukufuku wachiwiri: Njira iyi imathandizira zambiri zomwe zilipo kale. Pali malipoti ambiri omwe akuchitika m'mafakitale osiyanasiyana, omwe amatha kukhala ngati zida zofunikira komanso maziko ozindikira zomwe zikuchitika.
Kusanthula kwamayendedwe
Kusanthula kwa mayendedwe kumazindikiritsa machitidwe ofala pakati pa gulu linalake la ogwiritsa ntchito ndikumvetsetsa momwe masinthidwewa adasinthira kapena angasinthike pakapita nthawi. Izi ndizofunikira pakuvumbulutsa mwayi watsopano ndikupanga malingaliro amalingaliro kapena zinthu zomwe zingatheke, ndikupangitsa kuti ikhale njira yofunikira yogwiritsira ntchito poyambira gawo lopanga.
Monga njira yofufuzira pamapangidwe, kusanthula kwamachitidwe kumaphatikizapo kusonkhanitsa deta yokhudzana ndi ogwiritsa ntchito. Deta iyi imawunikiridwa kuti izindikire zomwe zikuchitika, zomwe pambuyo pake zimawunikidwa kuti zimvetsetse momwe zimakhalira pakapita nthawi.
Pali zochitika, komabe, pamene wofufuza akufunika kufufuza zomwe zikuchitika mkati mwa gulu la ogwiritsa ntchito. Muzochitika zotere, deta yeniyeni imasonkhanitsidwa kuchokera kumagulu ogwiritsira ntchito poyang'anitsitsa mosamala zomwe zikuchitika kuti adziwe chomwe chimayambitsa. Kuzindikira chomwe chimayambitsa chizolowezi nthawi zambiri kumakhala kovuta kwambiri kuposa kuzindikira komwe kumachitika. Ndikofunika kuzindikira kuti zinthu zosiyanasiyana, monga nthawi ya tsiku, nyengo, ndi malo, zikhoza kukhudza zomwe zikuchitika, ndipo izi ziyenera kulembedwa panthawi yowunika momwe zinthu zilili.
Trend extrapolation
Trend extrapolation imaphatikizapo kuzindikira zomwe zili mu data pa nthawi inayake ndikugwiritsa ntchito chidziwitsocho kulosera zam'tsogolo. Njirayi nthawi zambiri imachitika pokulitsa mzere wokhotakhota kapena wowonekera pakulosera kwakanthawi kochepa, koma zinthu zina, monga malire a kukula, zidzalingaliridwa kuti zilosere kwa nthawi yayitali. Malirewa angaphatikizepo kuchuluka kwaukadaulo kapena mchitidwe wachikhalidwe ungafalikire, ndipo ma curve osiyanasiyana angagwiritsidwe ntchito kuti agwirizane ndi zomwe datayo, monga njira yokhotakhota. Komabe, tikulimbikitsidwa kugwiritsa ntchito extrapolation ndi njira zina zolosera, monga kulingalira kwa akatswiri ndi kusanthula zochitika.
Trend extrapolation ingagwiritsidwe ntchito kulosera zam'tsogolo m'malo osiyanasiyana, monga malonda, ndalama, malonda, ntchito, kasamalidwe ka zoopsa, zothandizira anthu, ndi zina. Pozindikira machitidwe m'mbiri yakale, mabungwe amatha kugwiritsa ntchito njira zowonjezera kuti athe kuyembekezera zomwe zidzachitike m'tsogolo ndikupanga zisankho zabwino kuti akwaniritse bwino ntchito zawo ndikukwaniritsa zolinga zawo.
Njira zosiyanasiyana zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kulosera zam'tsogolo pogwiritsa ntchito mbiri yakale, yomwe imadziwika kuti ndi njira zolosera zamphamvu; komabe, sangaganizire zochitika zosayembekezereka nthawi zonse.
Mayendedwe amatha kuwonedwa pogwiritsa ntchito ma graph a mzere, pomwe kusintha kodalira kumayikidwa pa y-axis ndi nthawi pa x-axis. Trends akhoza kugawidwa m'magulu angapo:
- Pamakhala - palibe kukula konse kapena kuchepa. Pakhoza kukhalabe kusinthasintha kokhazikika, monga panyengo zosiyanasiyana.
- Linear - yodziwika ndi kuwonjezeka kokhazikika komanso kosasintha kapena kuchepa kwa deta. Mzere wowongoka umayimira zochitika izi, ndipo otsetsereka akhoza kukhala otsetsereka kapena pang'onopang'ono, malingana ndi momwe deta isinthira mofulumira.
- Zotchulidwa - kukula kapena kuchepa kwa deta kumachitika pamlingo wofulumira. M'malo mopitilira pang'onopang'ono, njira yamtunduwu imayimiridwa ndi piringupiringu, pomwe mtengo wa x (wokonzedwa mopingasa) umagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chiwongolero panjira yowerengera y-value.
- Damped - imayandikira asymptote yopingasa kapena mzere wopingasa womwe graph ya ntchitoyi imayandikira kwambiri koma osakhudza.
Kodi mabizinesi ayenera kuchita bwanji ndi zomwe zikuchitika?
Pamene makampani akuyang'ana momwe zinthu zikuyendera m'mafakitale athu, ndikofunikira kufunsa:
- Kodi akungotengera zomwe zachitika, kapena akutenga nawo gawo pazolengedwa zawo?
- Kodi akugwiritsa ntchito bwanji kumvetsetsa kwawo kwa machitidwewa kuti atsogolere zatsopano ndikukula m'mabungwe awo?
- Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, kodi ali okonzeka kusintha njira zawo ndi ntchito zawo kuti apindule ndi izi, kapena adzasiyidwa?
Ulendo wopita ku mayankhowa udzafunika kulimba mtima, luso komanso kudzipereka kosasunthika pakupanga zatsopano. Ndi ulendo womwe umalonjeza osati zovuta zokha komanso mwayi waukulu kwa omwe ali okonzeka kuwagwira.
