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Artificial Intelligence ndi magetsi a mawa: Tsogolo la Artificial Intelligence P1

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 15:03

Chisinthiko chaumunthu chimadumphira patsogolo nthawi zonse tikamawongolera gwero lamphamvu lamphamvu. Ndipo khulupirirani kapena ayi, tatsala pang'ono kulumpha kwathu kotsatira.

Makolo athu ankawoneka ngati nyani wamakono—chigaza chaching’ono, mano okulirapo ndi nsagwada zolimba kwambiri zotafuna mapaundi a zomera zosaphika zomwe matupi athu okulirapo amathera maola ambiri kugaya. Koma kenako tinapeza moto.

Makolo athu atafufuza zotsalira za moto wa nkhalango, anapeza mitembo ya nyama yoyaka moto imene ataiyang'anitsitsa ... inanunkhiza bwino. Kuwatsegula kunali kosavuta. Mnofuwo unali wokoma komanso wovuta kuutafuna. Ndipo koposa zonse, nyama yophikidwa iyi imagayidwa mwachangu ndipo michere yambiri idalowa m'thupi. Makolo athu anakopeka.

Pambuyo pophunzira kuwotcha moto ndikuugwiritsa ntchito kuphika chakudya, mibadwo yotsatira idawona kusintha kwakukulu m'matupi awo. Nsagwada zawo ndi mano zinakula chifukwa sanafunikire kutafuna kosatha chifukwa cha zomera zolimba, zaiwisi ndi mnofu. Matumbo awo (mimba) anakulirakulira chifukwa chakudya chophika chinali chosavuta kugayidwa. Ndipo mayamwidwe ochulukirapo a zakudya kuchokera ku nyama yophika, ndipo mosakayikira kufunikira kwathu kwatsopano kosaka chakudya chathu, kunathandizira kulimbikitsa kukula kwa ubongo ndi malingaliro athu.

Zaka masauzande pambuyo pake anthu adapeza mphamvu zamagetsi, zomwe zidayambitsa Kusintha kwa Industrial Revolution mu 1760 ndikupita kumasiku athu ano. Ndipo panonso, matupi athu akusintha.

Tikukhala moyo wautali. Tikukula kwambiri. Chiwerengero chathu cha ma baluni chikuphatikizana kuti chipange mitundu yambiri ya anthu. Ndipo tikamadziwa luso laukadaulo waukadaulo wa majini pofika m'ma 2040, anthu azitha kuwongolera kusinthika kwake mwachangu kwambiri. (Omasuka kuwerenga zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Chisinthiko cha Anthu mndandanda.)

Koma pofika kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 2030, anthu adzazindikira mphamvu yatsopano: luntha lochita kupanga (AI).

Kuwuka kwa makompyuta aumwini ndi intaneti kwatipatsa ife kulawa koyambirira kwa momwe kupeza nzeru zowonjezera (basic computational power) kungasinthire dziko lathu lapansi. Koma mu mndandanda wa zigawo zisanu ndi chimodzizi, tikukamba za nzeru zopanda malire zenizeni, mtundu umene umaphunzira paokha, umachitapo kanthu paokha, ukulu wa luntha lomwe lingathe kumasula kapena kupanga anthu onse ukapolo.

Izi zikhala zosangalatsa.

Kuthetsa chisokonezo kuzungulira nzeru zopangira

Kupatula kutsegulira kochititsa chidwi kwambiri, tiyeni tiwone zenizeni za AI. Kwa anthu ambiri, AI ndi mutu wosokoneza kwambiri. Gawo lalikulu la chisokonezo chimenecho limabwera chifukwa chogwiritsa ntchito mosasamala pachikhalidwe cha pop, atolankhani, ngakhalenso m'masukulu. Mfundo zingapo:

1. R2-D2. The Terminator. Zambiri kuchokera ku Star Trek: TNG. Ava wochokera ku Ex Machina. Kaya ikuwonetsedwa muzabwino kapena zoyipa, kuchuluka kwa zopeka za AI kumapangitsa kuti anthu asamvetsetse zomwe AI ili kwenikweni komanso kuthekera kwake. Izi zati, ndizothandiza ngati zofotokozera zamaphunziro. Ichi ndichifukwa chake pofuna kukambirana, mndandanda wonsewu, tidzatchula ma AI awa (ndi zina) zopeka pofotokoza magawo osiyanasiyana a AI omwe alipo lero ndipo adzapangidwa mawa.

2. Kaya ndi smartwatch yanu ya Apple kapena Tesla yanu yodzilamulira, Amazon Echo yanu kapena Google Mini yanu, masiku ano, tazunguliridwa ndi AI. Koma chifukwa chafala kwambiri, zayambanso zosaoneka kwa ife, monganso zinthu zomwe timadalira, monga magetsi ndi madzi. Monga anthu, titha kutengeka ndi malingaliro osiyanasiyana, kutanthauza kuti AI yomwe ichulukirachulukirayi ikutikakamiza kumasuliranso lingaliro lathu la 'yeniyeni' AI kuti likhale lopeka kwambiri kuposa zenizeni.

3. Kumbali ya maphunziro, akatswiri a sayansi ya ubongo, akatswiri a sayansi ya zamoyo, akatswiri a maganizo, et al., akatswiri okhudzidwa kwambiri ndi ubongo ndi malingaliro sakhalabe ndi chidziwitso chokwanira cha momwe ubongo umagwirira ntchito. Popanda kumvetsetsa kumeneku, sayansi siingathe kudziwa bwino ngati AI ili kapena ayi (yamoyo).

4. Kuyika zonsezi pamodzi, chikhalidwe chathu cha pop, sayansi yathu, ndi zokondera zathu zaumunthu zikupotoza momwe timaganizira za AI kuyambira pachiyambi. Monga anthu, mwachibadwa timakonda kumvetsetsa malingaliro atsopano powayerekezera ndi zinthu zomwe timadziwa kale. Timayesa kumvetsetsa AI powapangitsa kukhala anthropomorphizing, kutengera umunthu ndi mawonekedwe aumunthu, ngati mawu achikazi a Amazon Alexa. Momwemonso, chibadwa chathu ndikuganiza za malingaliro enieni a AI ngati omwe angagwire ntchito ndi kuganiza monga athu. Sizikhala momwe zimakhalira.

Chinthu choyenera kukumbukira ndi chakuti malingaliro aumunthu, pamodzi ndi zinyama zonse ndi tizilombo tomwe timagawana nawo dziko lapansili, zimayimira mtundu wa luntha losinthika (EI). Momwe timaganizira ndi zotsatira zachindunji pazifukwa ziwiri: zaka zikwi za chisinthiko zomwe zinapanga chibadwa chathu chamoyo ndi ziwalo zomva (masomphenya, kununkhiza, kukhudza, etc.) ubongo wathu umagwiritsa ntchito kusonkhanitsa zambiri.

AI yomwe timapanga sikhala ndi zolumikizira izi.

AI yapano ndi yamtsogolo sidzayenda mwachibadwa kapena malingaliro osamveka koma zolinga zodziwika. AI sidzakhala ndi ziwalo zomveka; m'malo mwake, kutengera kukula kwawo, azitha kupeza zambiri, mazana, masauzande, ngakhale mabiliyoni a masensa omwe amawadyetsa nthawi yeniyeni.

Pomaliza, tiyenera kuyamba kuganiza za AI mochepera ngati makina komanso ngati alendo - mabungwe omwe ali osiyana kwambiri ndi ifeyo.

Poganizira izi, tiyeni tisinthe magiya ndikuyang'ana magawo osiyanasiyana a AI omwe ali papaipi. Pamndandandawu, tiwunikira magawo atatu omwe amakambidwa ndi akatswiri ambiri a AI.

Kodi intelligence yopapatiza yochita kupanga ndi chiyani?

Nthawi zina amatchedwa "AI yofooka," Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) ndi AI yomwe imagwira ntchito imodzi kapena ntchito imodzi. Imazindikira kenako imachita zomwe zikuchitika / momwe ilili molunjika popanda lingaliro ladziko lonse lapansi.

Calculator yanu. Mapulogalamu onse amtundu umodzi pa smartphone yanu. Ma checkers kapena Starcraft AI omwe mumasewera nawo pa intaneti. Izi zonse ndi zitsanzo zoyambirira za ANI.

Koma kuyambira 2010, tawonanso kukwera kwa ma ANI otsogola, awa omwe ali ndi kuthekera kowonjezereka koganizira zomwe zidachitika kale ndikuziwonjezera pazowonetsera zawo zapadziko lonse lapansi. Mwanjira ina, ma ANI atsopanowa amatha kuphunzira kuchokera pazomwe zidachitika kale ndikupanga zisankho zabwinoko pang'onopang'ono.

Injini yosakira ya Google ndi chitsanzo chodziwikiratu cha ANI yapamwamba kwambiri, yomwe imakupatsirani zambiri zomwe mukuyang'ana masekondi musanamalize kulemba funso lanu pakusaka. Momwemonso, Zomasulira za Google zikuyenda bwino pakumasulira. Ndipo Google Maps ikukhala bwino pakukulozerani komwe muyenera kupita mwachangu.

Zitsanzo zina zikuphatikiza kuthekera kwa Amazon kuwonetsa zinthu zomwe mungakonde, kuthekera kwa Netflix kuwonetsa ziwonetsero zomwe mungafune kuwonera, komanso fyuluta yocheperako ya sipamu yomwe imakhala yabwinoko pakusefa zokopa zokopa 'lemeretsa mwachangu' kuchokera kwa omwe akuganiziridwa kuti akalonga aku Nigeria.

Pamakampani, ma ANI apamwamba amagwiritsidwa ntchito kulikonse masiku ano, kuyambira pakupanga kupita kuzinthu zofunikira mpaka kutsatsa (mwachitsanzo 2018). Facebook-Cambridge Analytica scandal), makamaka pazachuma, pomwe ma ANI apadera amawongolera zoposa 80% za malonda onse amasheya m'misika yaku US.

Ndipo pofika zaka za m'ma 2020, ma ANI awa ayambanso kuyesa odwala ndikulimbikitsa chithandizo chamankhwala chokhudzana ndi mbiri yachipatala ya wodwalayo kapena DNA. Adzayendetsa magalimoto athu (kutengera malamulo akumaloko). Adzayamba kupereka uphungu pamilandu yanthawi zonse. Adzasamalira kukonzekera misonkho kwa anthu ambiri ndikuyamba kukonza maakaunti amisonkho ovuta kwambiri. Ndipo malingana ndi bungwe, adzapatsidwanso ntchito zoyang'anira anthu.

Kumbukirani, zonsezi ndi AI mosavuta.

Kodi Artificial General Intelligence ndi chiyani?

Gawo lotsatira kuchokera ku ANI ndi Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Nthawi zina amatchedwa "AI yamphamvu" kapena "AI yapagulu la anthu," kupangidwa kwamtsogolo kwa AGI (zonenedweratu koyambirira kwa 2030s) zimayimira AI yomwe imatha ngati munthu aliyense.

(Uwunso ndi mulingo wa AI womwe AI yopeka kwambiri imayimira, monganso Data kuchokera ku Star Trek kapena T-800 kuchokera ku The Terminator.)

Izi zikumveka zosamveka kunena kuti ma ANI omwe afotokozedwa pamwambapa, makamaka omwe amayendetsedwa ndi Google ndi Amazon, akuwoneka amphamvu kwambiri. Koma zoona zake, ma ANI ndi odabwitsa pa zomwe adapangidwira, koma afunseni kuti achite china chilichonse ndipo amagwa (mophiphiritsira, ndithudi).

Komano, anthu, ngakhale kuti timakakamizika kupanga ma terabytes a data pa sekondi imodzi, malingaliro athu amapambana pakutha kusintha modabwitsa. Titha kuphunzira maluso atsopano ndikuphunzira kuchokera pazomwe takumana nazo, kusintha zolinga kutengera chilengedwe chathu, kuganiza mozama, kuthetsa mavuto amitundu yonse. ANI imatha kuchita chimodzi kapena ziwiri mwa izi, koma nthawi zambiri sangachite zonse pamodzi - kufooka kwachidziwitso kumeneku ndi komwe ma AGI angagonjetse.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za ma AGI, werengani mpaka mutu wachiwiri wa mndandanda uno womwe ukuwunikira mozama mulingo wa AI.

Kodi Artificial Superintelligence ndi chiyani?

Mulingo womaliza wa AI ndi womwe wotsogolera woganiza za AI, Nick Bostrom, amatanthauzira ngati superintelligence (ASI). ASI ingapose momwe anthu amagwirira ntchito pazifukwa zilizonse, kuchokera kumalingaliro kupita kunzeru, kuchokera pakupanga luso kupita kuukadaulo. Zingakhale ngati kufananiza wanzeru kwambiri waumunthu, wokhala ndi IQ pakati pa 120-140, ndi khanda. Palibe vuto lomwe lingakhale kunja kwa kuthekera kwa ASI kuthetsa.

(Mulingo wa AI uwu suwoneka kawirikawiri mu chikhalidwe cha pop, koma apa mutha kuganizira za Samantha kuchokera mufilimuyi, Her, ndi 'Architect' kuchokera ku Matrix trilogy.)

Mwa kuyankhula kwina, uwu ndi mtundu wa AI yemwe nzeru zake zimaposa nzeru zonse zomwe zakhalapo pa Dziko Lapansi. Ichi ndichifukwa chake mumamva ma heavyweights a Silicon Valley akulira.

Kumbukirani: nzeru ndi mphamvu. Nzeru ndi kulamulira. Anthu amatha kuyendera nyama zowopsa kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi kumalo osungiramo nyama omwe amakhala kwawo osati chifukwa chakuti ndife amphamvu kuposa nyamazi, koma chifukwa ndife anzeru kwambiri.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za mwayi ndi ziwopsezo zomwe ASIs ikupereka kwa anthu, onetsetsani kuti mukuwerenga mndandanda wonsewu!