Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Tsogolo lamisonkho: Tsogolo lazachuma P7

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachitatu, 09/16/2020 - 04:00

Kodi ndife anthu payekha kapena gulu? Kodi tikufuna kuti mawu athu amveke ndi voti yathu kapena m'thumba lathu? Kodi mabungwe athu ayenera kutumikira aliyense kapena kutumikira omwe adalipira? Kuchuluka kwa msonkho umene timakhomera ndiponso zimene timagwiritsira ntchito ndalama za misonkhozo zimafotokoza zambiri zokhudza madera amene tikukhala. Misonkho imaonetsa zimene timayendera.

Komanso, misonkho sikhala pa nthawi. Amachepa, ndipo amakula. Iwo amabadwa, ndipo iwo amaphedwa. Amapanga nkhani ndikuwumbidwa nazo. Kumene tikukhala ndi mmene timakhalira kaŵirikaŵiri zimaumbidwa ndi misonkho yamasiku ano, ndipo komabe kaŵirikaŵiri imakhala yosaoneka, ikugwira ntchito mowonekera komabe pansi pa mphuno zathu.

M'mutu uno wa mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Chuma, tiwona momwe mtsogolomu zidzakhudzire momwe maboma amtsogolo adzasankha kukonza ndondomeko yamisonkho yamtsogolo. Ndipo ngakhale zili zoona kuti kulankhula za misonkho kungapangitse ena kuti apeze kapu ya khofi yapafupi, dziwani kuti zomwe mukufuna kuwerenga zidzakhudza kwambiri moyo wanu m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi.

(Chidziwitso chofulumira: Pofuna kuphweka, mutu uno ufotokoza za misonkho yochokera kumayiko otukuka ndi a demokalase omwe ndalama zake zimachokera ku msonkho wa ndalama zomwe amapeza komanso chitetezo cha anthu. wapakati, dziko lotukuka.)

Chifukwa chake tisanadziwe mozama momwe misonkho idzakhalire, tiyeni tiyambe ndikuwunikanso zingapo zomwe zingakhudze kwambiri misonkho pazaka makumi ambiri zikubwerazi.

Anthu ochepera zaka zogwira ntchito omwe amapereka msonkho

Tinakambirana mfundo imeneyi m'nkhaniyi mutu wapita, komanso mu Tsogolo la Chiwerengero cha Anthu zakuti chiŵerengero cha anthu m’mayiko otukuka chikucheperachepera komanso kuti zaka zambiri m’mayikowa zikuyembekezeka kukhala okalamba. Pongoganiza kuti chithandizo chowonjezera zaka sizikuchulukirachulukira komanso kutsika mtengo padziko lonse lapansi m'zaka 20 zikubwerazi, izi zitha kupangitsa kuti anthu ambiri otukuka azipuma pantchito.

Kuchokera kumalingaliro achuma chachikulu, izi zikutanthauza kuti dziko lotukuka liwona kuchepa kwa ndalama zonse zamisonkho ndi chitetezo cha anthu. Pakadali pano, ndalama za boma zikatsika, mayiko aziwona kuchuluka kwa ndalama zothandizira anthu pazantchito zothandizira anthu pochotsa ndalama za penshoni komanso ndalama zothandizira odwala.

Kwenikweni, padzakhala okalamba ochuluka omwe adzawononge ndalama zothandizira anthu kuposa momwe kudzakhala achinyamata ogwira ntchito omwe amalipira ndi ndalama zawo zamisonkho.

Anthu osalembedwa ntchito ochepa omwe amapereka msonkho

Zofanana ndi zomwe zili pamwambapa, ndikufotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane mutu wachitatu Pamndandandawu, kukwera kowonjezereka kwa makina opangira makina kudzawona kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe ali ndi zaka zogwira ntchito akuthawitsidwa mwaukadaulo. Mwanjira ina, kuchuluka kwa anthu azaka zogwira ntchito kudzakhala kopanda phindu pazachuma pomwe maloboti ndi nzeru zopangapanga (AI) amatenga gawo lalikulu la ntchito zomwe zimapezeka kudzera pamagetsi.

Ndipo momwe chuma chimalowa m'manja ocheperako komanso momwe anthu ambiri amakankhidwira kwakanthawi kochepa, ntchito zachuma za gig, ndalama zonse zomwe maboma angatole komanso ndalama zamisonkho zomwe maboma angatole zidzachepetsedwa kwambiri.

Inde, ngakhale kuti zingakhale zokopa kukhulupirira kuti tidzakhometsa msonkho olemera kwambiri pofika tsiku lamtsogolo lino, zenizeni zenizeni za ndale zamakono ndi zamtsogolo ndikuti olemera adzapitirizabe kugula mphamvu zokwanira zandale kuti misonkho ikhale yotsika kwambiri. zopindula.

Misonkho yamakampani yatsika

Zikhale choncho chifukwa cha ukalamba kapena kutha kwaukadaulo, m'tsogolomu mudzawona anthu ochepa omwe amalipira msonkho komanso misonkho yachitetezo cha anthu poyerekeza ndi masiku ano. Zikatere, munthu angaganize moyenerera kuti maboma angayese kubweza ngongoleyi pokhometsa mabungwe amisonkho kwambiri pa ndalama zomwe amapeza. Koma apanso, chowonadi chozizira chidzatsekanso njira imeneyo.

Kuyambira kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1980, mabungwe amitundu yosiyanasiyana awona mphamvu zawo zikukula kwambiri poyerekeza ndi mayiko omwe amawalandira. Mabungwe amatha kusamutsa likulu lawo komanso ntchito zawo zonse kuchokera kumayiko ena kuti athamangitse phindu ndi ntchito zabwino zomwe eni ake amawakakamiza kuti azitsatira kotala lililonse. Mwachiwonekere, izi zimagwiranso ntchito pamisonkho. Chitsanzo chosavuta ndi Apple, kampani yaku US, imasunga ndalama zake zambiri kutsidya lina kuti ipewe misonkho yayikulu yomwe ikanalipira ngati kampaniyo ingalole kuti ndalamazo zizikhomeredwa msonkho.

M'tsogolomu, vuto lozemba misonkho lidzangokulirakulira. Ntchito zenizeni za anthu zidzakhala zofunidwa kwambiri kotero kuti mayiko adzapikisana mwamphamvu kuti akope mabungwe kuti atsegule maofesi ndi mafakitale m'dziko lawo. Mpikisano wapadziko lonse uwu upangitsa kuti misonkho yamakampani ikhale yotsika kwambiri, ndalama zothandizira, komanso malamulo ocheperako.

Pakali pano, kwa mabizinesi ang’onoang’ono—kaŵirikaŵiri gwero lalikulu la ntchito zatsopano, zapakhomo, maboma adzaika ndalama zambiri kotero kuti kuyambitsa bizinesi kukhale kosavuta ndi kusakhala ndi chiwopsezo chandalama. Izi zikutanthauza kutsitsa misonkho yamabizinesi ang'onoang'ono komanso ntchito zabwino zamabizinesi ang'onoang'ono aboma komanso ndalama zothandizidwa ndi boma.

Sitikudziwikiratu ngati zolimbikitsa zonsezi zidzathetsa vuto la kusowa kwa ntchito kwa mawa lomwe likuchitika chifukwa chongogwiritsa ntchito makina. Koma poganizira mosamalitsa, ngati nthawi yopuma misonkho ndi ma subsidies onsewa akalephera kutulutsa zotsatira, zomwe zingasiya maboma ali pachiwopsezo.

Kupereka ndalama zothandizira anthu kuti azikhala okhazikika

Chabwino, tikudziwa kuti pafupifupi 60 peresenti ya ndalama za boma zimachokera ku msonkho ndi msonkho wa chitetezo cha anthu, ndipo tsopano tikuzindikiranso kuti maboma adzawona kuti ndalamazo zikuchepa kwambiri pamene anthu ochepa komanso mabungwe ochepa amalipira misonkho yamtunduwu. Kenako funso limakhala lakuti: Kodi maboma angakwanitse bwanji kupeza ndalama zothandizira anthu komanso kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama m'tsogolomu?

Monga momwe anthu osunga malamulo komanso omenyera ufulu wa anthu amakonda kuwachitira chipongwe, ntchito zothandizidwa ndi boma ndi gulu lathu lachitetezo chachitetezo chathandiza kuti tipewe kuwononga chuma, kuwonongeka kwa anthu, komanso kudzipatula. Chofunika kwambiri, mbiriyakale ili ndi zitsanzo zomwe maboma omwe amavutika kuti athe kupeza ntchito zofunika posakhalitsa amalowa muulamuliro waulamuliro (Venezuela, kuyambira 2017), kugwa munkhondo yapachiweniweni (Syria, kuyambira 2011) kapena kugwa kwathunthu (Somalia, kuyambira 1991).

Chinachake chiyenera kupereka. Ndipo ngati maboma amtsogolo awona ndalama zawo zamisonkho zikutha, ndiye kuti kusintha kwamisonkho kudzakhala kosapeweka. Kuchokera pamalo owonekera a Quantumrun, zosintha zamtsogolo izi ziwonekera kudzera munjira zinayi wamba.

Kupititsa patsogolo kutolera misonkho pofuna kuthana ndi kuzemba misonkho

Njira yoyamba yopezera ndalama zambiri zamisonkho ndikungogwira ntchito yabwino yotolera misonkho. Chaka chilichonse, mabiliyoni a madola amatayika chifukwa cha kuzemba msonkho. Kuzemba kumeneku kumachitika pang'onopang'ono pakati pa anthu omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa, nthawi zambiri chifukwa cha misonkho yomwe idasungidwa molakwika chifukwa cha mafomu amisonkho ovuta kwambiri, koma makamaka pakati pa anthu omwe amapeza ndalama zambiri komanso mabungwe omwe ali ndi njira zosungira ndalama kunja kwa dziko kapena mabizinesi osamveka.

Kutulutsa kwa 2016 kwa mbiri yopitilira 11.5 miliyoni yazachuma komanso zamalamulo mu zomwe adasindikizidwa adazitcha Masamba a Panama adawulula ukonde wambiri wamakampani am'mphepete mwa nyanja omwe olemera komanso otchuka amagwiritsa ntchito kubisa ndalama zawo kumisonkho. Momwemonso, lipoti la Oxfam adapeza kuti makampani akuluakulu 50 aku US akusunga pafupifupi $1.3 thililiyoni kunja kwa US kuti asapereke msonkho wamakampani apanyumba (panthawiyi, akuchita izi movomerezeka). Ndipo ngati kupeŵa misonkho kukakhala kosayendetsedwa kwa nthawi yayitali, kumatha kukhala kwabwinobwino pagulu, monga momwe zimawonekera m'maiko ngati Italy komwe pafupifupi. 30 peresenti anthu ambiri amabera misonkho m'njira zina.

Vuto lalikulu pakukakamiza kutsata misonkho ndikuti kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zikubisika komanso kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe amabisala akuti ndalama nthawi zonse zimachepera zomwe madipatimenti ambiri amisonkho angafufuze bwino. Palibe okhometsa misonkho okwanira m'boma kuti athandize chinyengo chonsecho. Choipa kwambiri, kunyozedwa kwa anthu ambiri kwa okhometsa msonkho, ndi ndalama zochepa zamadipatimenti amisonkho ndi andale, sizikukopa ndendende zaka chikwi ku ntchito yotolera misonkho.

Mwamwayi, anthu abwino omwe amazilemba muofesi yanu yamisonkho amapeza luso lazogwiritsa ntchito kuti agwire bwino chinyengo chamisonkho. Zitsanzo zoyambilira mu gawo loyesera zimaphatikizapo njira zosavuta zowopsa, monga:

Ozembetsa misonkho amatumiza zidziwitso zowadziwitsa kuti ali m'gulu laling'ono kwambiri la anthu omwe sanakhome misonkho - njira yamalingaliro yosakanikirana ndi chuma chakhalidwe chomwe chimapangitsa ozemba misonkho kudzimva ngati akunyalanyazidwa kapena ocheperako, osatchulanso chinyengo chomwe adawona. kupambana kwakukulu ku UK.
Kuyang'anira kugulitsa zinthu zapamwamba kwa anthu m'dziko lonselo ndi kufananiza zogulazo ndi zolemba zamisonkho za anthu omwe atchulidwa kuti awonetsere ndalama zomwe amapeza ndi nsomba, njira yomwe yayamba kuchita zodabwitsa ku Italy.
Kuyang'anira malo ochezera a pa Intaneti a anthu otchuka kapena otchuka komanso kuyerekeza chuma chomwe amadzionetsera ndi misonkho ya anthu omwe atchulidwawo - njira yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito ku Malaysia kuti iziyenda bwino, ngakhale motsutsana ndi Manny Pacquiao.
Kukakamiza mabanki kudziwitsa mabungwe amisonkho nthawi iliyonse wina akatumiza ndalama kunja kwa dziko komwe kuli $ 10,000 kapena kuposerapo - mfundoyi yathandiza bungwe la Canadian Revenue Agency kuletsa kuzemba msonkho wakunja.
Kugwiritsa ntchito luntha lochita kupanga lopangidwa ndi makompyuta akuluakulu aboma kusanthula kuchuluka kwa misonkho kuti athandizire kuzindikira kuti satsatira malamulo - ukangomaliza, kusowa kwa anthu sikungachepetsenso kuthekera kwa mabungwe amisonkho kuti azindikire komanso kuneneratu za kuzemba misonkho pakati pa anthu ndi mabungwe. , mosasamala kanthu za ndalama.
Pomaliza, m'zaka zamtsogolo, ngati maboma adzakumana ndi mavuto akulu azachuma, pali mwayi waukulu woti andale ochita zinthu monyanyira kapena okonda anthu atha kulamulira omwe angasankhe kusintha malamulowo kapena kuyimba mlandu kuzemba misonkho, mpaka kulanda katundu kapena kutsekera m'ndende. Oyang'anira makampani mpaka ndalama zakunyanja zitabwezeredwa kunyumba ya kampaniyo.

Kuchoka pa kudalira msonkho wa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi msonkho wa ndalama

Njira ina yopititsira patsogolo kutolera misonkho ndiyo kufewetsa misonkho mpaka kufika pamene kukhoma misonkho kumakhala kosavutirapo ndi umboni wosatsutsika. Ndalama za msonkho zikayamba kuchepa, maboma ena amayesa kuchotsa msonkho wa munthu aliyense payekhapayekha, kapena kuchotsera aliyense kupatula chuma chambiricho.

Pofuna kuthana ndi kuchepa kwa ndalama kumeneku, maboma ayamba kuyang'ana kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito msonkho. Rent, mayendedwe, katundu, ntchito, kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zofunika pamoyo sizingakhale zosatheka, chifukwa ukadaulo umapangitsa kuti zonse izi kukhala zotsika mtengo chaka ndi chaka komanso chifukwa maboma angakonde kupereka ndalama zothandizira pazinthu izi m'malo moyika chiwopsezo chandale. gawo lalikulu la anthu awo likugwera mu umphawi wadzaoneni. Chifukwa chomaliza ndi chifukwa chake maboma ambiri akuyesa Zowonjezera Zachilengedwe (UBI) yomwe tidakambirana m'mutu XNUMX.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti maboma omwe sanachitepo izi akhazikitsa msonkho wachigawo/boma kapena feduro. Ndipo mayiko amene ali ndi misonkho yotereyi angasankhe kukweza misonkho yoteroyo mpaka kufika pamlingo woyenerera umene ungapangitse kutayika kwa msonkho wa ndalama zimene amapeza.

Chotsatira chimodzi chodziwikiratu cha kulimbikira kwambiri kwa misonkho yogula ndikukwera kwa msika wakuda komanso kutengera ndalama. Tiyeni tivomereze, aliyense amakonda malonda, makamaka opanda msonkho.

Pofuna kuthana ndi izi, maboma padziko lonse lapansi ayamba ntchito yopha ndalama. Chifukwa chake ndi chodziwikiratu, zochitika za digito nthawi zonse zimasiya mbiri yomwe imatha kutsatiridwa ndipo pamapeto pake imakhoma msonkho. Magawo ena a anthu adzalimbana ndi kusuntha uku kuti asungitse ndalama pazifukwa zoteteza zinsinsi ndi ufulu, koma pamapeto pake boma lidzapambana nkhondo yamtsogolo iyi, mwachinsinsi chifukwa adzafunikira ndalamazo komanso poyera chifukwa adzati ziwathandiza. kuyang'anira ndi kuchepetsa zochitika zokhudzana ndi zigawenga ndi zigawenga. (Okhulupirira chiwembu, omasuka kuyankhapo.)

Misonkho yatsopano

M'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, maboma adzagwiritsa ntchito misonkho yatsopano kuti athetse kuperewera kwa bajeti malinga ndi momwe zinthu zilili. Misonkho yatsopanoyi ibwera m'njira zambiri, koma ochepa omwe ali oyenera kutchula apa ndi awa:

Misonkho ya carbon. Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, kusintha kwa misonkho yogwiritsira ntchito misonkho kungapangitse kukhazikitsidwa kwa msonkho wa carbon umene anthu osunga malamulo nthawi zambiri amatsutsa. Mutha kuwerenga mwachidule zomwe msonkho wa kaboni ndi wake zopindulitsa zonse apa. Pachifukwa cha zokambiranazi, tifotokoza mwachidule ponena kuti msonkho wa carbon ukhoza kukhazikitsidwa m'malo mwa, osati pamwamba pa msonkho wogulitsa dziko lonse kuti avomereze anthu ambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, chifukwa chachikulu chomwe chidzavomerezedwe (kupatulapo zabwino zosiyanasiyana zachilengedwe) ndikuti ndi ndondomeko yoteteza.

Ngati maboma amadalira kwambiri misonkho yazakudya, ndiye kuti amalimbikitsidwa kuti awonetsetse kuti ndalama zambiri zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi anthu zimachitika m'nyumba, zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito m'mabizinesi am'deralo ndi mabungwe omwe ali mdziko muno. Maboma akufuna kuti ndalama zambiri ziziyenda m'dzikolo m'malo motuluka, makamaka ngati ndalama zambiri zomwe anthu adzagwiritse ntchito mtsogolo zimachokera ku UBI.

Chifukwa chake, popanga msonkho wa kaboni, maboma adzapanga mtengo wamtengo wapatali potengera ndondomeko yoteteza chilengedwe. Taganizirani izi: Ndi msonkho wa carbon wokhwima, katundu ndi ntchito zonse zomwe si zapakhomo zidzakwera mtengo kuposa katundu ndi ntchito zapakhomo, chifukwa mwaukadaulo, mpweya wochuluka umagwiritsidwa ntchito ponyamula katundu wabwino kunja kwa dziko kusiyana ndi zomwe zimanenedwa kuti zabwino zimapangidwira ndikugulitsidwa mdziko muno. Mwanjira ina, msonkho wamtsogolo wa kaboni udzasinthidwa kukhala msonkho wokonda dziko lawo, wofanana ndi mawu a Purezidenti Trump akuti 'Buy American'.

Misonkho pa ndalama zogulira. Ngati maboma achitapo kanthu pochepetsa misonkho yamakampani kapena kuwachotsa poyesa kulimbikitsa kukhazikitsidwa kwa ntchito zapakhomo, ndiye kuti mabungwewa atha kukhala akukakamizidwa ndi mabizinesi ku IPO kapena kupereka zopindulitsa kwa osunga ndalama omwe atha kuwona. kuchepetsa kapena kuchepetsa misonkho. Ndipo kutengera dzikolo komanso thanzi lake lazachuma mkati mwa zaka zodzipangira zokha, pali mwayi woti zopeza kuchokera kuzinthu izi ndi zina zomwe zimagulitsa msika wamasheya zikumana ndi misonkho yowonjezereka.

Misonkho ya nyumba. Msonkho wina womwe ungakhale wotchuka, makamaka m'tsogolomu wodzazidwa ndi maboma odziwika bwino, ndi msonkho wa malo (cholowa). Ngati kugawikana kwachuma kukuchulukirachulukira kotero kuti magawano okhazikika m'magulu amafanana ndi olemekezeka akale, ndiye kuti msonkho wokulirapo wa malo ungakhale njira yabwino yogawiranso chuma. Kutengera dzikolo komanso kuopsa kwa kugawikana kwachuma, njira zina zogawiranso chuma zitha kuganiziridwa.

Maloboti okhometsa msonkho. Apanso, kutengera momwe atsogoleri amtsogolo amtsogolo alili, titha kuwona kukhazikitsidwa kwa msonkho wogwiritsa ntchito maloboti ndi AI pafakitale kapena ofesi. Ngakhale kuti ndondomeko ya Luddite iyi sidzakhala ndi zotsatira zochepa pa kuchepetsa kuthamanga kwa ntchito zowonongeka, ndi mwayi woti maboma atole ndalama za msonkho zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito pothandizira UBI ya dziko lonse, komanso mapulogalamu ena othandizira anthu omwe ali ndi ntchito zochepa kapena osagwira ntchito.

Mukufuna misonkho yocheperako?

Pomaliza, mfundo imodzi yosayamikiridwa yomwe nthawi zambiri imaphonya, koma idanenedwa m'mutu woyamba wa mndandandawu, ndikuti maboma m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi adzapeza kuti amafunikira ndalama zochepa zamisonkho kuti agwire ntchito masiku ano.

Dziwani kuti machitidwe omwewo omwe amakhudza malo antchito amakono akhudzanso mabungwe aboma, kuwalola kuti achepetse kwambiri kuchuluka kwa ogwira ntchito m'boma ofunikira kuti apereke ntchito zofanana kapena zapamwamba zaboma. Izi zikachitika, kukula kwa boma kudzachepa komanso momwemonso ndalama zake zidzacheperachepera.

Mofananamo, pamene tikulowa mu zomwe olosera ambiri amatcha zaka zambiri (2050s), kumene ma robot ndi AI adzatulutsa kwambiri moti adzagwa mtengo wa chirichonse. Izi zidzachepetsanso mtengo wa moyo kwa munthu wamba, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zotsika mtengo komanso zotsika mtengo kwa maboma apadziko lonse lapansi kuti azipereka ndalama za UBI kwa anthu ake.

Ponseponse, tsogolo la misonkho m'modzi momwe aliyense amalipira gawo lake labwino, komanso ndi tsogolo lomwe gawo labwino la aliyense litha kucheperachepera. M’zochitika zamtsogolomu, mkhalidwe weniweniwo wa ukapitalisti umayamba kukhala ndi mawonekedwe atsopano, mutu womwe tiupenda mowonjezereka m’mutu womalizira wa mndandanda uno.