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Afrika; Izwekazi lendlala nempi: Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 12:48

Lesi sibikezelo esingesihle sizogxila kupolitiki yezwe lase-Afrika njengoba sihlobene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu phakathi konyaka wezi-2040 no-2050. Njengoba uqhubeka ufunda, uzobona i-Afrika ecekelwe phansi isomiso esibangelwa isimo sezulu kanye nokushoda kokudla; i-Afrika ekhungethwe iziyaluyalu zasekhaya futhi ekhungethwe izimpi zamanzi phakathi komakhelwane; kanye ne-Afrika esiphenduke inkundla yempi yama-proxy enodlame phakathi kwe-US ngakolunye uhlangothi, ne-China ne-Russia ngakolunye.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sithombe esifinyeziwe—lesi ikusasa lepolitiki lezwekazi lase-Afrika—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni. Konke osuzokufunda kusekelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela kokubili e-United States nase-United Kingdom, uchungechunge lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezihlangene nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli ezifana no-Gwynne Dyer, a. umbhali ophambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

Afrika, umfowethu ngokumelene nomfowethu

Kuwo wonke amazwekazi, i-Afrika ingase ibe ngelinye lamazwe athinteke kakhulu ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Izifunda eziningi sezivele zinenkinga yokungathuthuki, indlala, ukuchichima kwabantu, kanye nezimpi nezingxabano ezingaphezu kweshumi nambili—ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzokwenza isimo sibe sibi kakhulu. Amaphuzu okuqala okungqubuzana azovela eduze kwamanzi.

Water

Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2040, ukufinyelela emanzini ahlanzekile kuzoba udaba oluphambili kuwo wonke amazwe ase-Afrika. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzofudumeza zonke izifunda zase-Afrika kuze kube seqophelweni lapho imifula yoma ekuqaleni konyaka futhi womabili amachibi nezindawo ezingaphansi komhlaba ziphela ngesivinini esikhulu.

Uchungechunge olusenyakatho lwamazwe ase-Afrika aseMaghreb—i-Morocco, i-Algeria, iTunisia, iLibya, ne-Egypt—lizoshayeka kakhulu, njengoba ukuwa kwemithombo yamanzi ahlanzekile kukhubaza ukulima kwawo futhi kwenza buthaka kakhulu ukufakwa kwawo ugesi ophehlwa ngamanzi ambalwa. Amazwe asogwini olusentshonalanga naseningizimu nawo azozizwa ecindezelekile ngendlela efanayo ezimisweni zawo zamanzi ahlanzekile, ngaleyo ndlela ashiye amazwe ambalwa kuphela amaphakathi nasempumalanga—okuyi-Ethiopia, iSomalia, iKenya, i-Uganda, iRwanda, iBurundi, neTanzania—ukuba ahlale evikelekile uma kuqhathaniswa namazwe asempumalanga nasempumalanga. inkinga ngenxa yeLake Victoria.

Ukudla

Ngokulahlekelwa kwamanzi ahlanzekile okubalulwe ngenhla, izindawo ezinkulu zomhlaba ezilimekayo kuyo yonke i-Afrika ngeke zisakwazi ukulinywa njengoba ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kushisa inhlabathi, kukhiphe noma yimuphi umswakama oshiywe ucashe ngaphansi komhlaba. Ucwaningo luye lwabonisa ukuthi ukunyuka kwezinga lokushisa kwama-degree Celsius amabili kuya kwamane kungaholela ekulahlekelweni kwezivuno okungenani ngamaphesenti angama-20-25 kuleli zwekazi. Ukushoda kokudla kuzocishe kucishe kugwemeke futhi ukuqhuma okucatshangelwayo kwabantu kusukela ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.3 namuhla (2018) kuya ngaphezu kwezigidigidi ezimbili ngeminyaka yowezi-2040 ngokuqinisekile kuzoyibhebhethekisa inkinga.

Ingxabano

Le nhlanganisela yokukhula kokungavikeleki kokudla namanzi, kanye nenani labantu elikhuphukayo, izobona ohulumeni e-Afrika yonkana bebhekene nengozi ephakeme yezibhelu ezinodlame zombango, ezingase zikhule zibe izingxabano phakathi kwezizwe zase-Afrika.

Ngokwesibonelo, kungase kuphakame impikiswano engathi sína mayelana namalungelo omfula iNayile, ophuma kuwo usuka e-Uganda nase-Ethiopia. Ngenxa yokushoda kwamanzi ahlanzekile okukhulunywe ngawo ngenhla, womabili la mazwe azoba nentshisekelo eqinile yokulawula inani lamanzi ahlanzekile awavumelayo ezansi nomfula ngaphandle kwemingcele yawo. Nokho, imizamo yabo yamanje yokwakha amadamu ngaphakathi kwemingcele yabo ukuze kusetshenziswe amaphrojekthi okunisela kanye nokuphehla ugesi ngamanzi izoholela ekunciphiseni kwamanzi ahlanzekile ageleza eNayile aye eSudan nase-Egypt. Ngenxa yalokho, uma i-Uganda ne-Ethiopia benqaba ukwenza isivumelwano neSudan kanye ne-Egypt mayelana nesivumelwano sokwabelana ngamanzi, impi ingase igwemeke.

Ababaleki

Ngazo zonke izinselelo i-Afrika ezobhekana nazo ngeminyaka yawo-2040, ungasola amanye ama-Afrika ngokuzama ukubalekela leli zwekazi ngokuphelele? Njengoba isimo sezulu siba sibi kakhulu, imikhumbi yababaleki izosuka emazweni aseMaghreb enyakatho ibheke eYurophu. Kuzoba ukufuduka kwabantu abaningi kakhulu emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, okuqinisekile ukuthi kuzokhungathekisa izifundazwe eziseningizimu ye-Europe.

Kafushane nje, la mazwe aseYurophu azoqaphela usongo olukhulu lwezokuphepha olubangelwa yilokhu kufuduka endleleni yawo yokuphila. Imizamo yabo yokuqala yokubhekana nababaleki ngendlela yokuziphatha neyobuntu izothathelwa indawo imiyalo yokuthi amasosha asolwandle athumele zonke izikebhe zababaleki ogwini lwabo lwase-Afrika. Ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, izikebhe ezingahambisani nemithetho zingacwiliswa olwandle. Ekugcineni, ababaleki bazokubona ukuwela iMedithera njengogibe lokufa, okushiya abafisa kakhulu ukubhekisa amabombo empumalanga ukuze bafudukele eYurophu—becabanga ukuthi uhambo lwabo alumiswanga yiGibhithe, i-Israel, iJordani, iSyria, futhi ekugcineni neTurkey.

Enye indlela yalaba babaleki iwukuthuthela emazweni amaphakathi nasempumalanga ye-Afrika angathinteki kangako ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi lawo mazwe asemngceleni weLake Victoria, okukhulunywe ngaye ekuqaleni. Kodwa-ke, ukuthutheleka kwababaleki kuzogcina kuthuntubeze nalezi zifunda, njengoba ohulumeni babo bengeke babe nezinsiza ezanele zokusekela inani labantu abasuka kwamanye amazwe.

Ngeshwa e-Afrika, ngalezi zikhathi ezinzima zokushoda kokudla kanye nokugcwala ngokweqile kwabantu, okubi kakhulu kuseza (bona iRwanda 1994).

Amanqe

Njengoba ohulumeni ababuthaka ngenxa yesimo sezulu bezabalaza e-Afrika yonkana, amazwe angaphandle azoba nethuba elihle kakhulu lokuwasekela, mhlawumbe ukuze ahwebe ngemithombo yemvelo yaleli zwekazi.

Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2040, iYurophu izobe seyibolile bonke ubudlelwano base-Afrika ngokuvimba ngenkuthalo ababaleki base-Afrika ukuthi bangene emingceleni yabo. I-Middle East kanye neningi lase-Asia lizobanjwa kakhulu yizinxushunxushu zasekhaya ukuze zicabangele izwe langaphandle. Ngakho-ke, ukuphela kwamandla omhlaba alambele izinsiza asele nezomnotho, ezempi, kanye nezindlela zezolimo zokungenelela e-Afrika kuzoba yi-US, China neRussia.

Akuyona imfihlo ukuthi amashumi eminyaka, i-US ne-China bebelokhu beqhudelana ngamalungelo ezimayini e-Afrika yonkana. Kodwa-ke, ngesikhathi senhlekelele yesimo sezulu, lo mqhudelwano uzokhula ube yimpi ebambekayo encane: I-US izozama ukunqanda iChina ekutholeni izinsiza ezidingayo ngokuwina amalungelo akhethekile okumba izimayini emazweni amaningi ase-Afrika. Ngokubuyisela emuva, lezi zizwe zizothola ukuthutheleka okukhulu kosizo lwezempi lwase-US oluthuthukisiwe ukuze kulawuleke abantu bazo, ukuvala imingcele, ukuvikela imithombo yemvelo, namandla ephrojekthi—okungase kudaleke imibuso emisha elawulwa amasosha kule nqubo.

Khonamanjalo, i-China izosebenzisana neRussia ukuze inikeze ukusekelwa okufanayo kwezempi, kanye nosizo lwengqalasizinda ngendlela yama-reactors ase-Thorium athuthukile kanye nezitshalo zokususa usawoti emanzini. Konke lokhu kuzoholela ekutheni amazwe ase-Afrika akleliswe nhlangothi zombili zokwehlukana kwemibono—okufana nendawo yeMpi Yomshoshaphansi eyake yaba khona ngeminyaka yawo-1950 kuya ko-1980.

Environment

Enye yezingxenye ezidabukisa kakhulu zesimo sezulu sase-Afrika kuzoba ukulahlekelwa okudabukisayo kwezilwane zasendle esifundeni sonke. Njengoba isivuno sokulima sonakala kulo lonke izwekazi, izakhamuzi zase-Afrika ezilambile nezinezisusa ezinhle zizophendukela ekubeni inyama yehlathi ukuze zondle imindeni yazo. Izilwane eziningi ezisengozini njengamanje zizophela ekuzingelweni ngokungemthetho ngokweqile phakathi nalesi sikhathi, kanti lezo ezingekho engozini njengamanje zizowela esigabeni esisengozini. Ngaphandle kosizo oluningi lokudla oluvela emazweni angaphandle, lokhu kulahlekelwa okudabukisayo kwe-ecosystem yase-Afrika ngeke kugwemeke.

Izizathu zethemba

Okokuqala, osanda kukufunda kuyisibikezelo, hhayi iqiniso. Futhi, isibikezelo esilotshwe ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi kuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje kanye ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040 ukubhekana nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, okuningi kwakho okuzochazwa esiphethweni sochungechunge. Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukuze kunciphe futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: