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Ukuphela kobugebengu: Ikusasa lobugebengu P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

NgoLwesihlanu, 11/10/2017 - 06:20

Siphila ezweni lendlala, lokungabi nalutho okwanele lokuhambahamba. Kungakho, kusukela ekuqaleni kokuhlangenwe nakho komuntu, sekukhona isifiso sokweba, ukuthatha kwabanye ukuze sizicebise. Nakuba imithetho nokuziphatha kuyakwenqabela, ukweba kuyisifiso semvelo semvelo, esisize okhokho bethu ukuba bahlale bephephile futhi bondlekile ezizukulwaneni ngezizukulwane.

Nokho, njengoba ubusela bungokwemvelo emvelweni yethu, isintu sisele amashumi eminyaka kuphela ekwenzeni isisusa sokweba siphelelwe yisikhathi ngokuphelele. Kungani? Ngoba ubuhlakani besintu, ngokokuqala ngqá emlandweni, buphusha izilwane zethu enkathini yenala, lapho izidingo zezinto ezibonakalayo zawo wonke umuntu zaneliswa.

Nakuba lelikusasa lingase libe nzima ukulicabanga namuhla, umuntu udinga kuphela ukucabangela ukuthi lezi zimo ezilandelayo zizosebenzisana kanjani ukuze kuqedwe inkathi yobugebengu obuvamile.

I-Tech izokwenza izinto zenani eliphezulu kube nzima ukuzeba

Amakhompiyutha, ayamangalisa, futhi maduze azoba kukho konke esikuthengayo. Ipeni lakho, inkomishi yakho yekhofi, izicathulo zakho, yonke into. Ama-elekthronikhi ancipha ngokushesha kakhulu unyaka nonyaka kangangoba maduze yonke into izoba nesici 'sobuhlakani' esishunyekiwe kuzo.

Konke lokhu kuyingxenye ye- Inthanethi Things (IoT), okuchazwe kabanzi esahlukweni sesine sekusasa lethu lochungechunge lwe-inthanethi. Kafushane, i-IoT isebenza ngokubeka izinzwa zika-elekthronikhi ezincane-kuya-ku-microscopic kuwo wonke umkhiqizo okhiqiziwe, emishinini eyenza le mikhiqizo ekhiqiziwe, futhi (kwezinye izimo) ngisho nasezintweni zokusetshenziswa ezitholakala emishinini eyenza le mikhiqizo ekhiqiziwe. .

Izinzwa zizoxhumeka kuwebhu ngaphandle kwentambo futhi ekuqaleni zizonikwa amandla amabhethri amancane, bese kuba ngama-receptors angakwazi. ukuqoqa amandla ngaphandle kwentambo kusuka emithonjeni ehlukahlukene yemvelo. Lezi zinzwa zinikeza abakhiqizi nabathengisi ikhono elake langenakwenzeka lokuqapha, ukulungisa, ukuvuselela, nokudayisa bekude imikhiqizo yabo.

Ngokufanayo, kumuntu ojwayelekile, lezi zinzwa ze-IoT zizomvumela ukuthi alandele yonke into anayo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi uma ulahlekelwa okuthile, uzokwazi ukukuzingela nge-smartphone yakho. Futhi uma othile entshontsha okuthile okungokwakho, ungavele wabelane nge-ID yenzwa yendawo yakho namaphoyisa ukuze alandelele (isib. ukuphela kwamabhayisikili antshontshiwe).

Ubufakazi bokweba ngokuklama

Ngokufanayo naleli phuzu elingenhla, abaklami besimanje bomkhiqizo nama-software bakha imikhiqizo ehlakaniphile yesikhathi esizayo ukuze ibe ubufakazi bokweba ngokuklama.

Isibonelo, usungakwazi manje ukulanda isofthiwe kumafoni akho engakuvumela ukuthi ukhiye ukude noma usule amafayela akho omuntu siqu uma ifoni yakho yebiwa. Le softhiwe ingakuvumela futhi ukuthi ulandelele ukuthi ikuphi. Kukhona nesoftware ephumile manje ezokuvumela ukuthi wenze kanjalo chitha ukude noma 'brick' ifoni yakho uma kwenzeka yebiwa. Uma lezi zici sezivamile ngo-2020, inani lamafoni antshontshiwe lizokhula, ngaleyo ndlela lehlise izinga lawo lokwebiwa.

Ngokufanayo, izimoto zanamuhla ezithengwayo zingamakhompyutha anamasondo. Amamodeli amaningi amasha anokuvikelwa kokweba (ukulandelela okukude) okwakhelwe ngaphakathi ngokuzenzakalela. Amamodeli abiza kakhulu afaka ukuqinisekiswa kwe-hack-proofing okukude, ngaphezu kokuthi ahlelwe ukuthi asebenzele abanikazi bawo kuphela. Lezi zici zokuvikela kusenesikhathi zizopheleliswa ngesikhathi izimoto ezizimele (ezizishayelayo) zifika emgwaqeni, futhi njengoba izinombolo zazo zikhula, namazinga okuntshontshwa kwezimoto azokwehla.

Sekukonke, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ikhompyutha yakho ephathekayo, iwashi lakho, isethi yakho kamabonakude emikhulu, noma iyiphi idivayisi ye-elekthronikhi enenani elingaphezu kuka-$50-100 izoba nezici zokulwa nobugebengu ezakhelwe kuzo maphakathi nawo-2020. Ngaleso sikhathi, izinkampani zomshwalense zizoqala ukunikeza izinsiza ezishibhile zokulawula ukweba; okufana nezinhlelo zokuphepha zasekhaya, le sevisi izokwengamela izinto zakho 'ezihlakaniphile' futhi ikuxwayise ukuthi noma iyiphi into ishiya ikhaya lakho noma umuntu ngaphandle kwemvume yakho.

Imali ebonakalayo ihamba ngedijithali

Abasebenzisi bama-smartphone kungenzeka ukuthi sebezizwile kakade izimemezelo zangaphambi kwesikhathi ze-Apple Pay ne-Google Wallet, izinsizakalo ezizokuvumela ukuthi uthenge izimpahla ezindaweni ezingokoqobo ngocingo lwakho. Ekuqaleni kwawo-2020, le ndlela yokukhokha izokwamukelwa futhi ibe yinto evamile kubathengisi abaningi abakhulu.

Lezi nezinye izinsizakalo ezifanayo zizosheshisa ukushintshela komphakathi ekusebenziseni izinhlobo zemali zedijithali kuphela, ikakhulukazi kulabo abangaphansi kweminyaka engama-40. Futhi njengoba abantu abambalwa bephatha imali ebonakalayo, usongo lokugetshengwa luzokwehla kancane kancane. (Okuhlukile okusobala ngabantu abanyakazisa amajazi e-mink nobucwebe obunzima.)

Konke kuncipha kancane

Esinye isici okufanele sicatshangelwe ukuthi isidingo sokweba sizokhula njengoba izinga lokuphila lithuthuka nezindleko zokuphila zincipha. Kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1970s, sesijwayele izwe elinokwehla kwamandla emali njalo kangangokuthi manje kunzima ukucabanga ngezwe lapho cishe yonke into izoba eshibhile kakhulu kunanamuhla. Kodwa yilowo mhlaba siphokophele kuwo emashumini amabili kuya kwamathathu nje amafushane. Cabangela la maphuzu:

Ngo-2040, intengo yezimpahla eziningi ezithengwayo izokwehla ngenxa yokukhiqiza okuzenzakalelayo (amarobhothi kanye nobuhlakani bokwenziwa), ukukhula komnotho wokwabelana (we-Craigslist), kanye nabathengisi abancane abanephepha lenzuzo abazodinga ukuthi basebenze ukuze badayisele ikakhulukazi abantu abaningi abangasebenzi noma abangaqashiwe ngokugcwele.
Iningi lezinsizakalo lizozwa ingcindezi efanayo ephansi emananini awo avela emqhudelwaneni we-inthanethi, ngaphandle kwalawo masevisi adinga isici somuntu esisebenzayo: cabanga abaqeqeshi bomuntu siqu, abelaphi bemasaji, abanakekeli, njll.
Imfundo, cishe kuwo wonke amazinga, izokhululeka—ikakhulukazi umphumela kahulumeni wokusabela kwangaphambi kwesikhathi (2030-2035) emiphumeleni ye-automation enkulu kanye nesidingo sokuqhubeka nokuqeqesha abantu bakhona ukuze bathole izinhlobo ezintsha zemisebenzi nemisebenzi. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lemfundo chungechunge.
Ukusetshenziswa okubanzi kwamaphrinta esikali sokwakha e-3D, ukukhula kwezinto zokwakha eziyinkimbinkimbi, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni ezindlini eziningi ezithengekayo, kuzoholela ekwehleni kwentengo yezindlu (yokuqasha). Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lamadolobha chungechunge.
Izindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo zizokwehla ngenxa yezinguquko eziqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe ekulandeleleni impilo okuqhubekayo, imithi yomuntu siqu (ukunemba), kanye nokunakekelwa kwezempilo okunqanda isikhathi eside. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lempilo chungechunge.
Ngo-2040, amandla avuselelekayo azodla ngaphezu kwesigamu sezidingo zikagesi zomhlaba, ehlise kakhulu izikweletu zezinsiza kumthengi ojwayelekile. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lamandla chungechunge.
Inkathi yezimoto eziphethwe ngabanye izogcina ivuna izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ngokugcwele, ezizishayelayo eziqhutshwa izinkampani ezihweba ngezimoto namatekisi—lokhu kuzokonga ababengabanikazi bezimoto isilinganiso sama-$3-6,000 ngonyaka. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lezokuthutha chungechunge.
Ukukhuphuka kwe-GMO nezinto ezithatha indawo yokudla kuzokwehlisa izindleko zokudla okuyisisekelo kubantu abaningi. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokudla chungechunge.
Okokugcina, ukuzijabulisa okuningi kuzolethwa ngentengo ephansi noma mahhala kusetshenziswa amadivayisi wokubonisa anikwe amandla iwebhu, ikakhulukazi nge-VR ne-AR. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa le-inthanethi chungechunge.

Noma ngabe izinto esizithengayo, ukudla esikudlayo, noma uphahla phezu kwamakhanda ethu, izinto ezibalulekile umuntu ojwayelekile azozidinga ukuze aphile zizokwehla ngentengo emhlabeni wethu wesikhathi esizayo onikwe amandla ezobuchwepheshe, umhlaba ozishintshayo. Kungakho imali engenayo yonyaka yesikhathi esizayo ngisho ne-$24,000 ingaba namandla okuthenga afanayo njengeholo lika-$50-60,000 ngo-2016.

Abanye abafundi manje kungenzeka ukuthi bayabuza, “Kodwa esikhathini esizayo lapho imishini ithatha khona imisebenzi eminingi, abantu bayokwazi kanjani ukwenza u-$24,000 kwasekuqaleni?”

Phela, empilweni yethu Ikusasa Lomsebenzi uchungechunge, singena ngemininingwane yokuthi ohulumeni bakusasa, lapho bebhekene nenani elikhulu labantu abangasebenzi, bazoyisungula kanjani inqubomgomo entsha yezenhlalakahle ebizwa ngokuthi Imali Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke (UBI). Kalula nje, i-UBI iyimali engenayo enikezwa zonke izakhamizi (ezicebile nezimpofu) ngazinye futhi ngaphandle kwemibandela, okungukuthi ngaphandle kokuhlolwa kwendlela noma imfuneko yomsebenzi. Nguhulumeni okunika imali yamahhala nyanga zonke.

Eqinisweni, kufanele kuzwakale kujwayelekile uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi abantu abadala bathola into efanayo ngendlela yezinzuzo zanyanga zonke zokuvikeleka komphakathi. Kodwa nge-UBI, abameli bohlelo bathi, 'Kungani sithemba abantu abadala kuphela ukuphatha imali kahulumeni yamahhala?'

Uma kubhekwa wonke la mathrendi ahlanganayo (nge-UBI ephonswe ekuxubeni), kulungile ukusho ukuthi ngeminyaka yawo-2040, umuntu ojwayelekile ohlala emazweni athuthukile ngeke esakhathazeka ngokudinga umsebenzi ukuze aphile. Kuyoba ukuqala kwenkathi yenala. Futhi lapho kunenala, isidingo sokweba izinto ezincane siwela eceleni.

Ukusebenza kahle kwamaphoyisa kuzokwenza ukweba kube yingozi kakhulu futhi kubize kakhulu

Kuxoxwe ngokuningiliziwe kwethi Ikusasa Lamaphoyisa uchungechunge, iminyango yamaphoyisa yakusasa izosebenza kakhulu kunokwejwayelekile namuhla. Kanjani? Ngenhlanganisela ye-Big Brother surveillance, intelligence yokwenziwa (AI), kanye nobugebengu bangaphambi kobugebengu besitayela seMinority Report.

Amakhamera we-CCTV. Minyaka yonke, intuthuko eqhubekayo kubuchwepheshe bekhamera ye-CCTV yenza la mathuluzi okuqapha ashibhe futhi asebenziseke kakhulu. Ngo-2025, amakhamera e-CCTV azomboza amadolobha amaningi nezindawo ezizimele, ingasaphathwa eyamakhamera e-CCTV afakwe kuma-drones amaphoyisa azoba yinsakavukela ngawo lowo nyaka.

AI. Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020, yonke iminyango yamaphoyisa emadolobheni amakhulu izoba nekhompyutha enkulu emagcekeni ayo. Lawa makhompyutha azofaka i-AI yamaphoyisa enamandla ezonciphisa inani elikhulu ledatha yokubhekwa kwevidiyo eqoqwe izinkulungwane zamakhamera e-CCTV edolobha. Izobese isebenzisa isofthiwe ehlonishwayo yobuso ethuthukisiwe ukuze ifane nobuso bomphakathi obuthwetshulwe ngevidiyo nobuso babantu abathile ohlwini lokuqapha lukahulumeni. Lesi isici esizokwenza kube lula ukuxazululwa kwabantu abalahlekile kanye namacala ababaleki, kanye nokulandelelwa kwabakhululwe ngoshwele, abasolwa ngobugebengu, kanye namaphekula angase abe khona.

Ngaphambi kobugebengu. Enye indlela la makhompiyutha anamandla e-AI azosekela iminyango yamaphoyisa ukusebenzisa “isoftware yokuhlaziya ebikezelayo” ukuze aqoqe imibiko nezibalo zobugebengu ezingaba minyaka yonke, bese ezihlanganisa nezinto eziguquguqukayo zesikhathi sangempela njengokuvela kwemicimbi yokuzijabulisa, amaphethini omgwaqo, isimo sezulu, nokunye. Okukhiqizwa kusuka kule datha kuzoba imephu yedolobha esebenzisanayo ekhombisa amathuba kanye nohlobo lomsebenzi wobugebengu okungenzeka wenzeke nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.

Eseyasetshenziswa kakade namuhla, iminyango yamaphoyisa isebenzisa le mininingwane ukuthumela izikhulu zayo kulezo zindawo zasemadolobheni lapho isofthiwe ibikezela izenzo zobugebengu. Ngokuba namaphoyisa amaningi azulazula ezindaweni ezinezinkinga zezibalo, amaphoyisa asesimweni esingcono sokunqanda ubugebengu njengoba kwenzeka noma ethuse abantu abangaba izigebengu.

Izinhlobo zokweba eziyosinda

Nakuba zonke izibikezelo zingase zibonakale zinethemba, kufanele sikhulume iqiniso ngokuthi akuzona zonke izinhlobo zokweba eziyoshabalala. Ngeshwa, ukweba abukho ngenxa nje yesifiso sethu sezinto ezibonakalayo nezidingo, kuphinde kuvele emizweni ehlobene yomona nenzondo.

Mhlawumbe inhliziyo yakho ngeyomunye umuntu othandana naye. Mhlawumbe ulwela isikhundla noma isikhundla omunye umuntu anaso. Mhlawumbe othile unemoto ephendula amakhanda amaningi kuneyakho.

Njengabantu, asifisi kuphela lezo zimpahla ezisivumela ukuba siphile futhi sizizuze, kodwa futhi lezo zinto eziqinisekisa ukufaneleka kwethu. Ngenxa yalobu buthakathaka bengqondo yomuntu, kuyohlala kusele ugqozi lokweba okuthile, othile noma umqondo othile ngisho nalapho kungekho nto ecindezelayo noma ukusinda okudingekayo ukwenza kanjalo. Yingakho ubugebengu benhliziyo kanye nezinkanuko zethu buzoqhubeka nokugcina amajele azayo ebhizinisini.

Okulandelayo ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lobugebengu, sihlola ikusasa lobugebengu be-inthanethi, ubugebengu bokugcina begolide.