I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ikusasa lobugebengu obunodlame: Ikusasa lobugebengu P3

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 08:54

Ingabe kungaba khona usuku ekusaseni lethu sonke lapho ubudlova buba yinto yesikhathi esidlule? Ingabe ngolunye usuku kuyokwazi ukunqoba isifiso sethu sobudlova? Ingabe singazithola izixazululo zobumpofu, ukuntuleka kwemfundo, nokugula ngengqondo okuholela ezimweni eziningi zobugebengu obunobudlova?

Kulesi sahluko sochungechunge lwethu lwekusasa lobugebengu, sibhekana ngqo nale mibuzo. Sizochaza ukuthi ikusasa elikude lizokhululeka kanjani ezinhlotsheni eziningi zodlame. Kodwa-ke, sizophinde sixoxe ngokuthi iminyaka ephakathi izoba kude kanjani nokuthula nokuthi sonke sizoba nesabelo sethu esifanelekile segazi ezandleni zethu.

Ukuze sigcine lesi sahluko sihlelekile, sizohlola amathrendi aqhudelanayo asebenzela ukwandisa nokunciphisa ubugebengu obunobudlova. Ake siqale ngeyokugcina.

Amathrendi azonciphisa ubugebengu obunobudlova emazweni athuthukile

Uma sibheka umlando omude, izinhlobonhlobo zezitayela zasebenza ndawonye ukunciphisa izinga lodlame emphakathini wethu uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhathi zokhokho bethu. Asikho isizathu sokukholelwa ukuthi lezi zitayela ngeke ziqhubeke nemashi yazo iye phambili. Cabangela lokhu:

Isimo samaphoyisa esigadayo. Njengoba kuxoxwe ngo isahluko sesibili bakithi Ikusasa Lamaphoyisa uchungechunge, eminyakeni eyishumi nanhlanu ezayo kuzobona ukuqhuma ekusetshenzisweni kwamakhamera e-CCTV athuthukile endaweni yomphakathi. Lawa makhamera azobuka yonke imigwaqo nemigwaqo engemuva, kanye nangaphakathi kwezamabhizinisi nezakhiwo zokuhlala. Zizogitsheliswa ngisho ezinqoleni zamaphoyisa nezokuphepha, zigade izindawo ezibucayi nobugebengu futhi zinikeze iminyango yamaphoyisa umbono wesikhathi sangempela ngedolobha.

Kodwa okuguquguqukayo kwangempela kubuchwepheshe be-CCTV ukuhlanganiswa kwabo okuzayo nedatha enkulu ne-AI. Lobu buchwepheshe obuhambisanayo maduzane buzovumela ukukhonjwa kwesikhathi sangempela kwabantu abathwetshulwe kunoma iyiphi ikhamera—isici esizokwenza kube lula ukuxazululwa kwabantu abalahlekile, ababaleki, kanye nezinhlelo zokulandelela umsolwa.

Sekukonke, nakuba lobu buchwepheshe be-CCTV besikhathi esizayo bungase bungazivimbi zonke izinhlobo zobudlova obungokomzimba, ukuqaphela komphakathi ukuthi bagadiwe njalo kuzovimbela inani elikhulu lezigameko ukuthi zenzeke kwasekuqaleni.

Amaphoyisa obugebengu. Ngokufanayo, ku- isahluko sesine bakithi Ikusasa Lamaphoyisa sihlole ukuthi iminyango yamaphoyisa emhlabeni wonke isivele isebenzisa kanjani lokho ososayensi bamakhompiyutha abakubiza ngokuthi “i-predictive analytics software” ukuze kuqoqwe imibiko yobugebengu nezibalo zeminyaka, kuhlanganiswe nokuguquguquka kwesikhathi sangempela, ukwenza izibikezelo zokuthi nini, kuphi, futhi yiziphi izinhlobo zezenzo zobugebengu ezizokwenzeka ngaphakathi kwedolobha elinikeziwe.

Ngokusebenzisa le mininingwane, amaphoyisa atshalwa kulezo zindawo zamadolobha lapho isofthiwe ibikezela izenzo zobugebengu. Ngokuba namaphoyisa amaningi azulazula ezindaweni ezinezinkinga ezifakazelwe ngokwezibalo, amaphoyisa asesimweni esingcono sokunqanda ubugebengu njengoba kwenzeka noma bethusa abangaba izigebengu ngokuphelele, kuhlanganisa nobugebengu obunobudlova.

Ukuthola nokwelapha ukuphazamiseka kwengqondo okunodlame, e isahluko sesihlanu bakithi Ikusasa Lempilo uchungechunge, sihlole ukuthi konke ukuphazamiseka kwengqondo kuvela kanjani kokukodwa noma inhlanganisela yokukhubazeka kofuzo, ukulimala ngokomzimba, nokuhlukumezeka ngokomzwelo. Ubuchwepheshe bezempilo besikhathi esizayo buzosivumela ukuthi singagcini nje ngokuhlonza lezi zinkinga kusenesikhathi, kodwa futhi selaphe lezi zinkinga ngenhlanganisela yokuhlelwa kofuzo lwe-CRISPR, ukwelashwa kwe-stem cell, nokuhlelwa kwenkumbulo noma ukusula ukwelashwa. Sekukonke, lokhu kuzogcina kunciphise isamba sezigameko zodlame ezibangelwa abantu abangazinzile ngokwengqondo.

Ukwesulwa kwezidakamizwa. Ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, ubudlova obubangelwa ukuhweba ngezidakamizwa budlangile, ikakhulukazi eMexico nasezingxenyeni zaseNingizimu Melika. Lolu dlame nalo lopha emigwaqweni yamazwe athuthukile lapho abashushumbisi bezidakamizwa belwa bodwa endaweni, ngaphezu kokuhlukumeza imilutha yezidakamizwa. Kodwa njengoba izimo zengqondo zomphakathi zishintshela ekukhishweni kobugebengu kanye nokwelashwa phezu kokuboshwa kanye nokuzithiba, okuningi kwalolu dlame kuzoqala ukulinganisa.

Esinye isici okufanele sicatshangelwe ukuthambekela kwamanje okubona ukuthengiswa kwezidakamizwa okwengeziwe kwenzeka ku-inthanethi kumawebhusayithi emakethe emnyama engaziwa; lezi zimakethe sezivele zanciphisa udlame kanye nobungozi obuhilelekile ekuthengeni izidakamizwa ezingekho emthethweni kanye nemithi. Esahlukweni esilandelayo salolu chungechunge, sizohlola ukuthi ubuchwepheshe besikhathi esizayo buzokwenza kanjani izidakamizwa zamanje ezisekelwe kumakhemikhali ziphelelwe yisikhathi ngokuphelele.

Ukushintsha kwesizukulwane ngokumelene nezibhamu. Ukwamukelwa kanye nokufunwa kwezibhamu zomuntu siqu, ikakhulukazi emazweni afana ne-US, kuvela ekwesabeni okuqhubekayo kokuba yisisulu sobugebengu obunobudlova ngezindlela eziningi. Esikhathini eside, njengoba izindlela ezichazwe ngenhla zisebenza ndawonye ukwenza ubugebengu obunobudlova bube yinto engavamile, lokhu kwesaba kuzokwehla kancane kancane. Lolu shintsho, kuhlangene nezimo zengqondo ezikhulayo eziphathelene nezibhamu nokuzingela phakathi kwezizukulwane ezincane ekugcineni kuzobona ukusetshenziswa kwemithetho eqinile yokuthengiswa kwezibhamu kanye nobunikazi. Sekukonke, ukuba nezibhamu ezincane zomuntu siqu ezandleni zezigebengu nabantu abangazinzile kuzokwenza ukuncipha kodlame lwezibhamu.

Imfundo iba mahhala. Kuxoxwe okokuqala kweyethu Ikusasa Lemfundo uchungechunge, lapho uthatha umbono omude ngemfundo, uzobona ukuthi ngesinye isikhathi izikole eziphakeme zazikhokhisa imali yokufunda. Kodwa ekugcineni, lapho ukuba nediploma yesikole samabanga aphezulu kwaba yisidingo sokuphumelela emakethe yezabasebenzi, futhi lapho iphesenti labantu ababenediploma yesikole samabanga aphezulu selifinyelele izinga elithile, uhulumeni wenza isinqumo sokubheka idiploma yesikole esiphakeme njengenkonzo. futhi wayikhulula.

Lezi zimo ezifanayo ziyavela ngeziqu zeziqu zasenyuvesi. Kusukela ngo-2016, iziqu ze-bachelor seziphenduke idiploma entsha yesikole samabanga aphezulu emehlweni abaphathi abaqashayo, abaqhubeka bebona idigri njengesisekelo okufanele baqashelwe ngokumelene nabo. Ngokunjalo, iphesenti lemakethe yezabasebenzi manje esenezinga elithile lifinyelela eqophelweni elibucayi kangangokuthi lingakaze libhekwe njengomehluko phakathi kwabafake izicelo.

Ngenxa yalezi zizathu, ngeke kuthathe isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuthi izinhlangano zikahulumeni nezizimele ziqale ukubheka iziqu zasenyuvesi noma zasekolishi njengesidingo, okwenza ohulumeni babo benze imfundo ephakeme ibe mahhala kubo bonke. Inzuzo eseceleni yalokhu kuthutha ukuthi inani labantu abafundile kakhulu livame ukuba nenani labantu abanodlame oluncane.

I-automation izokwehlisa izindleko zayo yonke into, e isahluko sesihlanu bakithi Ikusasa Lomsebenzi uchungechunge, sihlole ukuthi ukuthuthuka kwezerobhothi nobuhlakani bemishini kuzovumela kanjani uhla lwezinsizakalo zedijithali nempahla ekhiqiziwe ukuthi ikhiqizwe ngezindleko ezehliswe kakhulu kunanamuhla. Maphakathi nawo-2030s, lokhu kuzoholela ekwehleni kwentengo yazo zonke izinhlobo zezimpahla ezithengwayo kusukela kwezimpahla zokugqoka kuye kwezisezingeni eliphezulu. Kodwa esimweni sobugebengu obunodlame, kuzophinde kuholele ekwehleni okujwayelekile kokweba okuqhutshwa umnotho (ukugqekeza nokugqekeza), njengoba izinto nezinsiza zizoshibhile kangangokuthi abantu ngeke badinge ukuntshontsha.

Ukungena enkathini yenala. Maphakathi nawo-2040, isintu sizoqala ukungena enkathini yenala. Ngokokuqala ngqá emlandweni wesintu, wonke umuntu uyokwazi ukufinyelela yonke into ayidingayo ukuze aphile impilo yesimanje nenethezekile. 'Kungenzeka kanjani lokhu?' uyabuza. Cabangela lokhu:

Ngokufanayo naleli phuzu elingenhla, ngo-2040, intengo yezimpahla eziningi ezithengwayo izokwehla ngenxa yokukhiqiza okuzenzakalelayo okukhulayo, ukukhula komnotho wokwabelana (we-Craigslist), kanye nabathengisi abathola inzuzo encane ephepheni kuzodingeka basebenze ukuze badayisele ikakhulukazi abantu abaningi abangasebenzi noma abangaqashiwe ngokugcwele.
Izinsizakalo eziningi zizozwa ingcindezi efanayo yokwehla kumanani azo, ngaphandle kwalezo zinsizakalo ezidinga isici somuntu esisebenzayo: cabanga abaqeqeshi bomuntu siqu, abelaphi bemasaji, abanakekeli, njll.
Ukusetshenziswa okubanzi kwamaphrinta esilinganiso sokwakha se-3D, ukukhula kwezinto zokwakha eziyinkimbinkimbi, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni ezindlini eziningi ezithengekayo, kuzoholela ekwehleni kwentengo yezindlu (irenti). Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lamadolobha chungechunge.
Izindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo zizokwehla ngenxa yezinguquko eziqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe ekulandeleleni impilo okuqhubekayo, imithi yomuntu siqu (ukunemba), kanye nokunakekelwa kwezempilo okunqanda isikhathi eside. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lempilo chungechunge.
Ngo-2040, amandla avuselelekayo azodla ngaphezu kwesigamu sezidingo zikagesi zomhlaba, ehlise kakhulu izikweletu zezinsiza kumthengi ojwayelekile. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lamandla chungechunge.
Inkathi yezimoto eziphethwe ngabanye izophetha ngokuvuna izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ngokugcwele, ezizishayelayo eziqhutshwa izinkampani ezithengisa izimoto kanye nezinkampani zamatekisi—lokhu kuzokonga ababengabanikazi bezimoto isilinganiso sama-$9,000 ngonyaka. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lezokuthutha chungechunge.
Ukukhuphuka kwe-GMO nezinto ezithatha indawo yokudla kuzokwehlisa izindleko zokudla okuyisisekelo kubantu abaningi. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokudla chungechunge.
Okokugcina, ukuzijabulisa okuningi kuzolethwa ngentengo ephansi noma mahhala kusetshenziswa amadivayisi wokubonisa anikwe amandla iwebhu, ikakhulukazi nge-VR ne-AR. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa le-inthanethi chungechunge.

Noma ngabe izinto esizithengayo, ukudla esikudlayo, noma uphahla phezu kwamakhanda ethu, izinto ezibalulekile umuntu ojwayelekile azozidinga ukuze aphile zizokwehla ngentengo emhlabeni wethu wesikhathi esizayo, onikwe amandla ezobuchwepheshe, ozenzakalelayo. Eqinisweni, izindleko zokuphila zizokwehla kangangokuthi iholo lonyaka lika-$24,000 lizoba namandla okuthenga afanayo njengeholo lika-$50-60,000 ngo-2015. Futhi kulelo zinga, ohulumeni emazweni athuthukile bangakwazi ukukhokhela kalula lezo zindleko Imali Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke kuzo zonke izakhamizi.

Sekuhlanganiswe ndawonye, leli kusasa esibheke kulo eligcwele amaphoyisa, eligxile kwezempilo yengqondo, nelingenazinkathazo kwezomnotho lizoholela ezenzweni ezincishiswe kakhulu zobugebengu obunodlame.

Ngeshwa, kukhona okubambekayo: lo mhlaba cishe uzovela kuphela ngemuva kweminyaka yama-2050s.

Isikhathi soguquko phakathi kwenkathi yethu yamanje yokushoda kanye nenkathi yethu yensada yekusasa izoba kude nokuthula.

Amathrendi azokwandisa ubugebengu obunobudlova emazweni asathuthuka

Nakuba umbono wesikhathi eside ngesintu ungase ubonakale umnandi uma kuqhathaniswa, kubalulekile futhi ukukhumbula iqiniso lokuthi lo mhlaba wenala ngeke usabalale emhlabeni wonke ngokulinganayo noma ngesikhathi esifanayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunezinkambiso eziningi ezivelayo ezingase zibangele ukungazinzi nodlame olukhulu phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili kuya kwamathathu ezayo. Futhi nakuba amazwe athuthukile engase ahlale evikelekile ngandlela-thile, iningi labantu emhlabeni elihlala emazweni asathuthuka liyozwa ubuhlungu obugcwele balokhu kuthambekela kokwehla. Cabangela lezi zici ezilandelayo, kusukela engxoxweni kuye kwezingenakugwemeka:

Umphumela we-domino wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Njengoba kuxoxwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu uchungechunge, iningi lezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe ezinomthwalo wemfanelo wokuhlela umzamo womhlaba wonke mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ziyavuma ukuthi ngeke sivumele ukuhlangana kwamagesi abamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini wethu ukuba kwakhe ngaphezu kwezingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi (ppm).

Kungani? Ngoba uma siyidlula, impendulo yemvelo ehilelekile endaweni yethu izokhula ngesivinini esingaphezu kwamandla ethu, okusho ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoba kubi kakhulu, ngokushesha, okungenzeka kuholele emhlabeni lapho sonke siphila ezweni. Mad Max imuvi. Siyakwamukela ku-Thunderdome!

Ngakho-ke ingakanani ukugxiliswa kwe-GHG yamanje (ikakhulukazi i-carbon dioxide)? Ngokusho kwe Isikhungo Sokuhlaziya Ulwazi Lwe-Carbon Dioxide, kusukela ngo-April 2016, ukugxilisa ingqondo ezingxenyeni ngesigidi kwaba … 399.5. Eesh. (O, futhi ngokomongo nje, ngaphambi kwenguquko yezimboni, inombolo ibingu-280ppm.)

Nakuba amazwe asethuthukile engakwazi ukugxambukela emiphumeleni yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okwedlulele, amazwe ampofu ngeke abe nakho lokho kunethezeka. Ikakhulukazi, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzokhinyabeza kakhulu ukufinyelela amazwe asathuthuka anakho emanzini ahlanzekile nokudla.

Yehla ekufinyeleleni kwamanzi. Okokuqala, yazi ukuthi nge-degree Celsius eyodwa yokufudumala kwesimo sezulu, inani eliphelele lokuhwamuka likhuphuka cishe ngamaphesenti angu-15. Lawo manzi engeziwe emkhathini aholela engcupheni eyengeziwe “yemicimbi yamanzi,” njengeziphepho zezinga le-Katrina ezinyangeni zasehlobo noma iziphepho zeqhwa ebusika obujulile.

Ukufudumala okwandayo kuholela nasekuncibilikeni ngokushesha kwezinguzunga zeqhwa zase-Arctic. Lokhu kusho ukwanda kwezinga lolwandle, kokubili ngenxa yomthamo wamanzi olwandle ophakeme futhi ngenxa yokuthi amanzi anda emanzini afudumele. Lokhu kungaholela ezigamekweni ezinkulu nezivamile zezikhukhula nama-tsunami ahlasela amadolobha asogwini emhlabeni jikelele. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, amadolobha angamachweba aphansi kanye nezizwe eziyiziqhingi zisengozini yokunyamalala ngokuphelele ngaphansi kolwandle.

Futhi, ukushoda kwamanzi ahlanzekile kuzoba yinto maduze. Uyabona, njengoba umhlaba ufudumala, izinguzunga zeqhwa ezisezintabeni zizoncipha kancane noma zinyamalale. Lokhu kubalulekile ngoba imifula eminingi (imithombo yethu eyinhloko yamanzi ahlanzekile) umhlaba wethu oncike kuyo ivela emanzini asezintabeni. Futhi uma imifula eminingi yomhlaba ishwabana noma yome ngokuphelele, ungavalelisa emandleni amaningi okulima emhlabeni.

Ukufinyelela emanzini omfula aphelayo kakade kudala ukungezwani phakathi kwamazwe aqhudelanayo njenge-India nePakistan ne-Ethiopia ne-Egypt. Uma izinga lemifula lifinyelela emazingeni ayingozi, ngeke kube ngaphandle kombuzo ukucabanga ngezimpi zamanzi ezizayo, ezigcwele amanzi.

Ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kokudla. Ukwakha amaphuzu ashiwo ngenhla, uma kukhulunywa ngezitshalo nezilwane esizidlayo, imithombo yezindaba yethu ivame ukugxila ekutheni yenziwa kanjani, kubiza malini, noma ukuthi ilungiswa kanjani. ngena esiswini sakho. Nokho, akuvamile ukuthi abezindaba bethu bakhulume ngokutholakala kwangempela kokudla. Kubantu abaningi, lokho kuyinkinga yomhlaba wesithathu.

Nokho, njengoba umhlaba ufudumala, ikhono lethu lokukhiqiza ukudla lizoba sengcupheni enkulu. Ukwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa kwedigri eyodwa noma amabili ngeke kulimaze kakhulu, sizovele sishintshe ukukhiqizwa kokudla siye emazweni asezindaweni eziphakeme, njengeCanada neRussia. Kodwa ngokusho kukaWilliam Cline, isikhulu esiphezulu e-Peterson Institute for International Economics, ukunyuka kwama-degree Celsius amabili kuya kwamane kungaholela ekulahlekeni kokuvunwa kokudla ngo-20-25% e-Afrika naseLatin America, kanye namaphesenti angama-30 noma okuningi eNdiya.

Enye inkinga ukuthi, ngokungafani nesikhathi esidlule, ukulima kwesimanje kuvame ukuthembela ezinhlobonhlobo zezitshalo ezimbalwa ukuthi zikhule ngezinga lezimboni. Sikhulise izitshalo zasekhaya, phakathi kwezinkulungwane zeminyaka zokuzalanisa ngesandla noma inqwaba yeminyaka yokukhohliswa kofuzo, ezingachuma kuphela uma izinga lokushisa lilungile i-Goldilocks.

Ngokwesibonelo, izifundo eziqhutshwa yi-University of Reading ezinhlotsheni ezimbili zerayisi ezitshalwa kakhulu, i-lowland indica futhi i-upland japonica, bathole ukuthi bobabili basengozini kakhulu emazingeni okushisa aphezulu. Ngokukhethekile, uma amazinga okushisa edlula ama-degree angu-35 ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza, izitshalo zizoba yinyumba, zinikeze okusanhlamvu okumbalwa, uma kukhona. Amazwe amaningi asezindaweni ezishisayo nase-Asia lapho irayisi liwukudla okuyisisekelo okuyinhloko kakade esemaphethelweni ale ndawo yokushisa ye-Goldilocks, ngakho noma yikuphi ukufudumala okwengeziwe kungase kusho inhlekelele. (Funda kabanzi esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokudla uchungechunge.)

Sekukonke, lokhu kuncipha kokukhiqizwa kokudla kuyizindaba ezimbi kwabakwa- abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye kulindeleke ukuthi ibe khona ngo-2040. Futhi njengoba ubonile ku-CNN, i-BBC noma i-Al Jazeera, abantu abalambile bavame ukuphelelwa yithemba futhi bangabi nangqondo uma kuziwa ekusindeni kwabo. Abantu abalambile abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye ngeke kube isimo esihle.

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kubange ukufuduka. Kakade, kukhona abanye abahlaziyi kanye nezazi-mlando abakholelwa ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kube nomthelela ekuqaleni kwe-2011 yempi yombango yaseSyria ebhubhisayo (isixhumanisi one, ezimbili, Futhi ezintathu). Le nkolelo isukela esomiso eside esaqala ngo-2006 esaphoqa izinkulungwane zabalimi baseSyria ukuphuma emapulazini abo omisiwe baye ezindaweni zasemadolobheni. Lokhu kuthutheleka kwezinsizwa ezithukuthele ezinezandla ezingenzi lutho, abanye banomuzwa wokuthi kwasiza ekubhebheni ukuvukela umbuso waseSyria.

Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uyakholelwa yini kule ncazelo, umphumela uyefana: cishe isigamu sesigidi sabaseSyria bafa futhi izigidi eziningi zasala dengwane. Laba babaleki bahlakazeka esifundeni sonke, iningi labo lihlala eJordani naseTurkey, kanti abaningi babeka izimpilo zabo engozini behambela ukuzinza kwe-European Union.

Uma ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuba kubi kakhulu, ukuntuleka kwamanzi nokudla kuyophoqa abantu abomile nababulawa indlala ukuba babaleke emakhaya abo e-Afrika, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, e-Asia, eNingizimu Melika. Umbuzo-ke uthi bazoshonaphi? Ubani ozobangenisa? Ingabe izizwe ezithuthukile enyakatho zizokwazi ukuzithola zonke? IYurophu iqhubekile kahle kangakanani nababaleki abayisigidi nje? Kuzokwenzekani uma lelo nani lingaba izigidi ezimbili phakathi nenkathi yezinyanga ezimbalwa? Izigidi ezine? Eziyishumi?

Ukukhuphuka kwamaqembu akude kwesokudla. Ngokushesha ngemva kwenhlekelele yababaleki baseSyria, amagagasi okuhlasela kwamaphekula ahlasela izindawo ezihlosiwe kulo lonke elaseYurophu. Lokhu kuhlasela, ngaphezu kokungakhululeki okudalwe ukuthutheleka okungazelelwe kwabantu bokufika ezindaweni zasemadolobheni, kube nomthelela ekukhuleni okumangalisayo kwamaqembu akude kwesokudla kulo lonke elaseYurophu phakathi kuka-2015-16. Lawa amaqembu agcizelela ubuzwe, ukuzihlukanisa, nokungathembi "omunye." Kunini lapho le mizwa yonakala khona eYurophu?

Ukuphahlazeka ezimakethe zikawoyela. Ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nezimpi akuzona kuphela izinto ezingabangela abantu abaningi ukuba babaleke emazweni abo, ukuwa komnotho kungaba nemiphumela emibi ngokulinganayo.

Njengoba kuchaziwe ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lamandla, ubuchwepheshe belanga lehla ngentengo ngendlela emangazayo kanjalo nenani lamabhethri. Lobu buchwepheshe bubili, kanye nezimo eziya phansi ezizilandelayo, yikho okuzovumela izimoto kagesi ukufinyelela ukulingana kwamanani nezimoto ezivuthayo ngo-2022. Ishadi le-Bloomberg:

Lapho lokhu kulinganisa kwamanani kufinyelelwa, izimoto zikagesi zizosuka ngempela. Kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo, lezi zimoto zikagesi, kuhlangene nokukhula okumangalisayo kwezinsizakalo zokwabelana ngezimoto kanye nokukhululwa okuseduze kwezimoto ezizimele, kuzonciphisa ngokuphawulekayo inani lezimoto emgwaqeni ezibangelwa igesi yendabuko.

Ngokunikezwa kwezomnotho okuyisisekelo kanye nesidingo, njengoba isidingo segesi sincipha, kanjalo nentengo yawo ngomphongolo ngamunye. Nakuba lesi simo singase sibe sihle endaweni ezungezile kanye nabanikazi besikhathi esizayo babambi begesi, lezo zizwe zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi ezithembele ku-petroleum ngesabelo esikhulu semali engenayo zizokuthola kuba nzima ukulinganisa isabelomali sazo. Okubi nakakhulu, uma kubhekwa inani labantu abakhona, noma yikuphi ukwehla okukhulu kwamandla alezi zizwe okuxhasa ngezimali izinhlelo zezenhlalakahle kanye nezinsizakalo eziyisisekelo kuzokwenza kube nzima kakhulu ukugcina uzinzo emphakathini.

Ukwenyuka kwezimoto ezisebenzisa amandla elanga nekagesi kuveza izinsongo zezomnotho ezifanayo kwamanye amazwe alawulwa uphethiloli, njengeRussia, iVenezuela, kanye namazwe ahlukahlukene ase-Afrika.

I-Automation ibulala ukukhishwa kwemisebenzi. Sishilo phambilini mayelana nendlela lo mkhuba obheke ku-automation uzokwenza ukuthi iningi lezimpahla namasevisi esiwathengayo ashibhile. Kodwa-ke, umphumela osobala esiwubeke phezu kwawo ukuthi le mishini izosula izigidi zemisebenzi. Ngokuqondile, okucashunwe kakhulu Umbiko we-Oxford inqume ukuthi amaphesenti angama-47 emisebenzi yanamuhla azoshabalala ngo-2040, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yomshini ozishintshayo.

Kumongo wale ngxoxo, ake sigxile embonini eyodwa kuphela: ukukhiqiza. Kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1980, izinkampani zakhipha amafekthri azo ukuze zisebenzise inzuzo eshibhile ezingayithola ezindaweni ezifana neMexico neChina. Kodwa phakathi neminyaka eyishumi ezayo, intuthuko kwezamarobhothi nobuhlakani bemishini izophumela kumarobhothi angakwazi ukwedlula kalula lezi zisebenzi ezingabantu. Uma lelo phuzu selifikile, izinkampani zaseMelika (ngokwesibonelo) zizonquma ukubuyisela ukukhiqiza kwazo e-US lapho zingaklama khona, zilawule, futhi zikhiqize izimpahla zazo ekhaya, ngaleyo ndlela zonga izigidi zezigidi zezisebenzi nezindleko zokuthumela ngemikhumbi zamazwe ngamazwe.

Futhi, lezi yizindaba ezinhle kubathengi abavela emazweni athuthukile abazohlomula ezimpahleni ezishibhile. Nokho, kwenzekani ezigidini zezisebenzi ezisezingeni eliphansi kulo lonke elase-Asia, eNingizimu Melika, nase-Afrika ezazithembele kule misebenzi yokukhiqiza esebenza kanzima ukuze ziphume ebumpofu? Ngokufanayo, kwenzekani kulawo mazwe amancane isabelomali sawo sincike emalini yentela evela kulezi zinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe? Bazogcina kanjani uzinzo emphakathini ngaphandle kwemali edingekayo ukuze kuxhaswe izidingongqangi?

Phakathi kuka-2017 no-2040, umhlaba uzobona abantu abacishe babe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili bengena emhlabeni. Iningi lalaba bantu lizozalelwa emazweni asathuthuka. Uma kungenzeka ukuthi i-automation ibulale iningi labasebenzi abaningi, imisebenzi ye-blue collar ebingagcina lesi sibalo sabantu ngaphezu komugqa wobumpofu, lapho-ke singena ezweni eliyingozi kakhulu.

Amapulangwe

Nakuba lezi zimo eziseduze zibonakala zicindezela, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi azinakugwemeka. Uma kukhulunywa ngokushoda kwamanzi, sesivele sihamba phambili ngendlela engakholakali ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini anosawoti ngezinga elikhulu, ezishibhile. Ngokwesibonelo, i-Israel—izwe elake laba nokuntuleka kwamanzi okungapheli nokunamandla—manje ikhiqiza amanzi amaningi kakhulu ezitshalweni zayo ezithuthukisiwe zokukhipha usawoti emanzini kangangokuthi isilahla lawo manzi oLwandle Olufile ukuze iwagcwalise futhi.

Uma kukhulunywa ngokushoda kokudla, inqubekelaphambili evelayo kuma-GMO kanye namapulazi aqondile ingase ibangele enye i-Green Revolution kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.

Ukwenyuka okukhulu kosizo lwangaphandle kanye nezivumelwano zokuhwebelana phakathi kwamazwe athuthukile nasathuthuka kungase kunqande isimo esibucayi somnotho' esingase sibangele ukuntengantenga kwesikhathi esizayo, ukufuduka kwabantu abaningi, kanye nohulumeni abashisekayo.

Futhi nakuba ingxenye yemisebenzi yanamuhla ingase inyamalale ngo-2040, ubani ongasho ukuthi isivuno esisha esisha ngeke sibonakale sithatha indawo yayo (ngethemba, imisebenzi amarobhothi angeke akwazi ukuyenza ... ).

Imicabango yokugcina

Kunzima ukukholwa uma ubuka i-24/7 yethu, "uma iphuma igazi ihola" iziteshi zezindaba, ukuthi umhlaba wanamuhla uphephile futhi unokuthula kakhulu kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi emlandweni. Kodwa kuyiqiniso. Ukuthuthuka esikwenzile ngokuhlanganyela ekuthuthukiseni ubuchwepheshe bethu namasiko ethu kusule izinto eziningi ezigqugquzela udlame. Sekukonke, lo mkhuba we-macro kancane kancane uzothuthuka unomphela.

Nokho, ubudlova busekhona.

Njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, kuzothatha amashumi eminyaka ngaphambi kokuba sidlulele emhlabeni wenala. Kuze kube yileso sikhathi, izizwe zizoqhubeka nokuncintisana zodwa ngezinsiza ezinciphayo ezizidingayo ukuze kugcinwe uzinzo ekhaya. Kodwa ngokwezinga labantu, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kuwukuxabana kwezindlu zangasese, ukubamba isithandwa esikhohlisayo, noma ukufuna impindiselo yokubuyisela isithunzi sengane yakini, inqobo nje uma siqhubeka sizizwa, sizoqhubeka nokuthola izizathu zokubeka phezu komunye umuntu. .