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eNdiya nasePakistan; indlala kanye ne-fiefdoms: Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 11:40

Lesi sibikezelo esingesihle sizogxila kupolitiki yezwe laseNdiya kanye nelasePakistan njengoba sihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu phakathi kweminyaka ka-2040 no-2050. Njengoba ufunda uqhubeke, uzobona izifunda ezimbili eziyizimbangi zilwa nokuntengantenga kwasekhaya okunodlame njengoba ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuphanga ikhono lokondla imiphakathi yabo ekhula ngokushesha. Uzobona izimbangi ezimbili zizama ngamandla ukubambelela emandleni ngokubhebhezela intukuthelo yomphakathi komunye nomunye, zibeka inkundla yempi yenuzi engapheli. Ekugcineni, uzobona kwakheka imifelandawonye engalindelekile ukuze kungenelele ukulwa nokuqothulwa kwezikhali zenuzi, kuyilapho futhi kugqugquzelwa ukwanda kwezikhali zenuzi kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sifinyezo—leli kusasa lezwe lase-India nasePakistan—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni omncane. Konke ozokufunda kususelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela e-United States nase-United Kingdom, kanye nolwazi oluvela ochungechungeni lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezisebenzisana nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli, okuhlanganisa no-Gywnne. Dyer, umbhali ohamba phambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

Impi yamanzi

Akukho ndawo eMhlabeni lapho usongo lwempi yenuzi engapheli lungenzeka kakhulu kunaphakathi kweNdiya nePakistan. Imbangela: amanzi, noma kunalokho, ukuntuleka kwawo.

Ingxenye enkulu ye-Asia Ephakathi ithola amanzi ayo emifuleni yase-Asia egeleza isuka ezintabeni zase-Himalaya nasethafeni laseTibet. Lezi zihlanganisa imifula i-Indus, iGanges, iBrahmaputra, iSalween, iMekong neYangtze. Emashumini eminyaka azayo, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoshintsha kancane kancane ezisekelweni zeqhwa zasendulo ezihlezi phezu kwalezi zintaba. Ekuqaleni, ukushisa okwandayo kuzodala amashumi eminyaka ezikhukhula ezinzima zasehlobo njengoba izinguzunga zeqhwa neqhwa kuncibilika emifuleni, kukhukhumale emazweni azungezile.

Kodwa uma kufika usuku (ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-2040) lapho izintaba ze-Himalaya sezisuswe ngokuphelele izinguzunga zeqhwa, imifula eyisithupha eshiwo ngenhla izobhidlika ibe ithunzi lesimo sayo sangaphambili. Inani lamanzi izimpucuko kulo lonke elase-Asia ezithembele kulo iminyaka eyinkulungwane lizoncipha kakhulu. Ekugcineni, le mifula iwumgogodla wokusimama kwawo wonke amazwe anamuhla esifundeni. Ukuwa kwazo kuzobhebhethekisa uchungechunge lwezingxabano osekuphele amashumi eminyaka zibilile.

Izimpande zodweshu

Imifula enciphayo ngeke ilimaze i-India kakhulu, njengoba izitshalo zayo eziningi zidla imvula. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iPakistan inoxhaxha lomhlaba oniselwa ngenkasa omkhulu kunayo yonke, okwenza ukulima kwenzeke ezweni obekungaba ugwadule. Izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zokudla kwayo zitshalwa ngamanzi adonswa ohlelweni lomfula i-Indus, ikakhulukazi emifuleni egcwele iqhwa i-Indus, Jhelum, kanye neChenab. Ukulahlekelwa kokugeleza kwamanzi kusuka kulolu hlelo lomfula kungaba yinhlekelele, ikakhulukazi njengoba inani labantu basePakistan kulindeleke ukuthi likhule lisuka ezigidini ezingu-188 ngo-2015 liye ku-254 million ngo-2040.

Kusukela ekuhlukaniseni ngo-1947, imifula emihlanu kweyisithupha ephakela uhlelo lomfula i-Indus (iPakistan ethembele kuyo) isendaweni elawulwa amaNdiya. Eminingi yemifula iphinde ibe nesizinda sayo esifundeni saseKashmir, indawo okuphikiswana ngayo. Njengoba ukunikezwa kwamanzi kwePakistan kulawulwa ikakhulukazi imbangi yayo enkulu, ukubhekana ngeziqu zamehlo ngeke kugwemeke.

Ukungavikeleki kokudla

Ukwehla kokutholakala kwamanzi kungase kwenze ezolimo ePakistan zibe zingenakwenzeka. Khonamanjalo, i-India izozizwa inesimo esifanayo njengoba inani labantu likhula lisuka ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.2 namuhla liye cishe ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.6 ngo-2040.

Ucwaningo olwenziwa yinhlangano yongqondongqondo yaseNdiya i-Integrated Research and Action for Development luthole ukuthi ukwenyuka kwama-degree Celsius amabili ezingeni lokushisa elimaphakathi lomhlaba kunganciphisa ukukhiqizwa kokudla kwamaNdiya ngamaphesenti angama-25. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungenza izivunguvungu zasehlobo (abalimi abaningi abathembele kuzo) zingavami, kanti futhi ziphazamisa ukukhula kwezitshalo eziningi zesimanje zaseNdiya njengoba eziningi zingakhuli kahle emazingeni okushisa afudumele.

Ngokwesibonelo, izifundo eziqhutshwa yi-University of Reading ezinhlotsheni ezimbili zerayisi ezitshalwa kakhulu, i-lowland Indica kanye ne-upland Japonica, ithole ukuthi zombili zazisengozini kakhulu emazingeni okushisa aphezulu. Uma amazinga okushisa edlula ama-degree angu-35 ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza, izitshalo ziba yinyumba, zinikeze okusanhlamvu okuncane, uma kukhona. Amazwe amaningi asezindaweni ezishisayo nase-Asia lapho irayisi liwukudla okuyisisekelo okuyinhloko kakade elele onqenqemeni lwale ndawo yokushisa ye-Goldilocks futhi noma yikuphi ukufudumala okwengeziwe kungase kusho inhlekelele.

Ezinye izici ezingase zibe khona zihlanganisa inkambiso yamanje yesigaba esimaphakathi esikhula ngokushesha e-India esithatha okulindelekile kwaseNtshonalanga kokudla okuyinala. Uma ucabanga ukuthi namuhla, i-India ayikhuli ngokwanele ukuba yondle abantu bayo nokuthi ngeminyaka yawo-2040, izimakethe zokusanhlamvu zamazwe ngamazwe zingase zingakwazi ukumboza ukushoda kwesivuno sasekhaya; izithako zodlame lwasekhaya olusabalele zizoqala ukukhula.

(Inothi eseceleni: Lezi zinxushunxushu zizowenza buthaka kakhulu uhulumeni omkhulu, zivule ithuba lokuthi imifelandawonye yezifunda nezifundazwe ibambe ukulawula futhi ifune ukuzimela okwengeziwe ezindaweni zayo.)

Konke okushiwo, noma yiziphi izinkinga zokushoda kokudla okulindeleke ukuthi i-India ibhekane nazo, iPakistan izoba kubi kakhulu. Ngamanzi abo okulima atholakala emifuleni eyomisayo, umkhakha wezolimo wasePakistan ngeke ukwazi ukukhiqiza ukudla okwanele ukuhlangabezana nesidingo. Kafushane nje, amanani okudla azokwenyuka, intukuthelo yomphakathi izoqhuma, futhi iqembu elibusayo lasePakistan lizothola imbuzi elula ngokuphambukisa ulaka olubhekise eNdiya—phela imifula yabo idlula eNdiya kuqala bese iNdiya iphambukisa iphesenti elikhulu ukuze lihlangabezane nezidingo zalo zokulima. .

Ipolitiki yempi

Njengoba udaba lwamanzi nokudla luqala ukuthunaza kokubili i-India nePakistan ngaphakathi, ohulumeni bamazwe womabili bazozama ukuqondisa ulaka lomphakathi kwelinye. Amazwe emhlabeni wonke azobona lokhu okuzayo okuyimayela futhi abaholi bomhlaba bazokwenza imizamo emangalisayo yokungenelela ukuze kube nokuthula ngesizathu esilula: impi engapheli phakathi kweNdiya ephelelwe yithemba kanye nePakistan evuthayo izokhula ibe impi yenuzi engenabanqobi.

Kungakhathalekile ukuthi ubani oshaya kuqala, womabili la mazwe azoba namandla okuqhumisa amandla enyukliya angaphezu kokwanele ukuze anciphise izikhungo ezinkulu zabantu zomunye nomunye. Impi enjalo ingathatha isikhathi esingaphansi kwamahora angu-48, noma kuze kube yilapho sekuqediwe ukugcinwa kwezikhali zenuzi zezinhlangothi zombili. Ngaphansi kwamahora ayi-12, abantu abayingxenye yebhiliyoni bebezohwamuka ngenxa yokuqhuma kwezikhali zenuzi, kanti abanye abayizigidi eziyi-100-200 bazofa ngokushesha ngemva kokuchayeka emisebeni kanye nokuntuleka kwezinsiza. Amandla kanye nemishini kagesi kuwo wonke amazwe womabili izokhutshazwa unomphela ekuqhumeni kukazibuthe kulawo makhanda ezikhali zenuzi ambalwa avinjwe uhlangothi ngalunye lwe-laser- kanye ne-missile-based ballistic defences. Okokugcina, ukuqhuma okuningi kwe-nuclear (i-radioactive material eqhunyiswe phezulu emkhathini) izozinza futhi ibangele izimo eziphuthumayo zezempilo ezinkulu emazweni azungezile njenge-Iran ne-Afghanistan ngasentshonalanga ne-Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, ne-China empumalanga.

Isimo esingenhla ngeke samukeleke kubadlali bomhlaba abakhulu, okuzothi ngeminyaka yawo-2040 kube yi-US, China, neRussia. Bonke bazongenela, banikeze usizo lwezempi, amandla, nokudla. IPakistan, okuyiyona efisa kakhulu, izosebenzisa lesi simo ukuze ithole usizo oluningi ngangokunokwenzeka, kuyilapho i-India izofuna okufanayo. I-Russia cishe izokhuphuka ngokuthengwa kwempahla evela kwamanye amazwe. I-China izohlinzeka ngengqalasizinda yamandla avuselelekayo kanye ne-Thorium. Futhi i-US izothumela ibutho layo lasolwandle nelasemoyeni, inikeze iziqinisekiso zempi nhlangothi zombili futhi iqinisekise ukuthi akukho zikhali ezicitshwayo zezikhali zenuzi eziwela umngcele we-Indian-Pakistani.

Nokho, lokhu kusekelwa ngeke kuze ngaphandle kwezintambo. Ifuna ukudambisa isimo unomphela, la mazwe azofuna ukuthi izinhlangothi zombili ziyeke izikhali zenuzi ukuze zithole usizo oluqhubekayo. Ngeshwa, lokhu ngeke kundiza nePakistan. Izikhali zayo zenuzi zizosebenza njengesiqinisekiso sokuzinza kwangaphakathi ngokudla, amandla, nosizo lwezempi ezizolukhiqiza. Ngaphandle kwabo, iPakistan ayinalo ithuba empini evamile yesikhathi esizayo neNdiya futhi ayikho i-bargaining chip yosizo oluqhubekayo oluvela emazweni angaphandle.

Lokhu kuqina ngeke kuqashelwe amazwe ase-Arab azungezile, azosebenza ngokuzimisela ukuthola izikhali zenuzi ukuze athole izivumelwano zosizo ezifanayo ezivela emazweni omhlaba. Lokhu kunyuka kuzokwenza iMpumalanga Ephakathi ingazinzi, futhi cishe kuzophoqa u-Israyeli ukuthi akhulise izinhlelo zayo zenuzi nezempi.

Kulo mhlaba wesikhathi esizayo, ngeke kube nezixazululo ezilula.

Izikhukhula kanye nababaleki

Ngaphandle kwezimpi, kufanele futhi siqaphele umthelela omkhulu wesimo sezulu esizoba nawo esifundeni. Amadolobha asogwini lwaseNdiya azohlaselwa iziphepho ezinodlame ezikhulayo, ezixosha izigidi zezakhamuzi ezimpofu ezindlini zazo. Khonamanjalo, i-Bangladesh izoba yimbi kakhulu. Ingxenye yesithathu eseningizimu yezwe layo, lapho kuhlala khona izigidi ezingu-60 njengamanje, ihlezi ezingeni lolwandle noma ngaphansi; njengoba amazinga olwandle ekhuphuka, sonke leso sifunda sisengozini yokunyamalala ngaphansi kolwandle. Lokhu kuzobeka i-India endaweni enzima, njengoba kufanele ilinganise izibopho zayo zokusiza abantu ngokumelene nezidingo zayo zangempela zokuphepha zokuvimbela izigidi zababaleki baseBangladesh ekukhukhuleni ziwela umngcele wayo.

E-Bangladesh, izindlela zokuziphilisa nezimpilo ezilahlekile zizoba zinkulu, futhi akukho kuzokuba yiphutha labo. Ekugcineni, lokhu kulahlekelwa kwesifunda esinabantu abaningi ezweni labo kuzoba yiphutha leShayina naseNtshonalanga, ngenxa yobuholi babo ekungcolisweni kwesimo sezulu.

Izizathu zethemba

Osanda kukufunda kuyisibikezelo, hhayi iqiniso. Futhi, isibikezelo esabhalwa ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi okuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje kanye neminyaka yama-2040 ukubhekana nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, okuningi kwakho okuzochazwa esiphethweni sochungechunge. Okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungazithinta kanjani ezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukunciphisa, futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: