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Ikusasa lethu ngeledolobha: Ikusasa Lamadolobha P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 09:10

Emadolobheni yilapho kukhiqizwa khona ingcebo eningi emhlabeni. Amadolobha avame ukunquma isiphetho sokhetho. Amadolobha aya ngokuya echaza futhi elawula ukuhamba kwemali, abantu, kanye nemibono phakathi kwamazwe.

Amadolobha ayikusasa lezizwe.

Abantu abahlanu kwabayishumi vele bahlala edolobheni, futhi uma lesi sahluko sochungechunge siqhubeka sifundwa kuze kube ngu-2050, lelo nani lizokhula libe yisishiyagalolunye kwabangu-10. Emlandweni wesintu omfishane, ohlangene, amadolobha ethu angase abe ukuqanjwa kwethu okubaluleke kakhulu kuze kube manje, nokho. siye sanwaya kuphela lokho abangaba yikho. Kulolu chungechunge lwekusasa lamadolobhakazi, sizohlola ukuthi amadolobha azoguquka kanjani emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Kodwa okokuqala, umongo othile.

Uma ukhuluma ngokukhula kwekusasa kwamadolobha, konke kumayelana nezinombolo.

Ukukhula okunganqandeki kwamadolobha

Kusukela ngo-2016, ngaphezu kwesigamu sabantu emhlabeni bahlala emadolobheni. Ngo-2050, cishe 70 amaphesenti omhlaba azohlala emadolobheni futhi acishe abe ngamaphesenti angama-90 eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu. Ukuze uthole umuzwa wesilinganiso esikhulu, cabangela lezi zinombolo evela kuNhlangano Yezizwe:

Unyaka ngamunye, abantu abayizigidi ezingu-65 bajoyina inani labantu basemadolobheni emhlabeni.
Uma kuhlanganiswe nokwanda kwenani labantu emhlabeni, kulindeleke ukuthi abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.5 bazobe sebezinze emadolobheni ngo-2050—amaphesenti angu-90 alokho kukhula avela e-Afrika nase-Asia.
I-India, iChina, neNigeria kulindeleke ukuba enze okungenani amaphesenti angu-37 alokhu kukhula okulindelekile, kanti iNdiya inezela izakhamuzi zasemadolobheni eziyizigidi ezingu-404, iChina yizigidi ezingu-292, neNigeria izigidi ezingu-212.
Kuze kube manje, inani labantu basemadolobheni emhlabeni liye lakhula lisuka ezigidini ezingu-746 ngo-1950 laya ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.9 ngo-2014.

Ehlanganiswe ndawonye, la maphuzu abonisa ushintsho olukhulu, oluyiqoqo ezintweni ezithandwayo zokuphila zabantu eziya ekuminyana nasekuxhumaneni. Kodwa iyini imvelo yamahlathi asemadolobheni bonke laba bantu abadonsela kuwo?

Ukukhuphuka kwe-megacity

Okungenani abantu basemadolobheni abayizigidi eziyi-10 abahlala ndawonye bamele lokho manje okuchazwa ngokuthi yidolobha elikhulu lesimanje. Ngo-1990, kwakunamadolobha amakhulu angu-10 kuphela emhlabeni wonke, anezindlu eziyizigidi ezingu-153 iqoqo. Ngo-2014, lelo nani likhule lafinyelela kumadolobha amakhulu angama-28 anezindlu eziyizigidi ezingama-453. Futhi ngo-2030, i-UN iphrojekthi okungenani ama-megacities angama-41 emhlabeni jikelele. Imephu engezansi kusuka kwabezindaba zeBloomberg ibonisa ukusatshalaliswa kwama-megacities akusasa:

Okungase kumangaze kwabanye abafundi ukuthi iningi lamadolobha amakhulu akusasa ngeke libe seNyakatho Melika. Ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga labantu baseNyakatho Melika (okuchazwe kwethi Ikusasa Labantu series), ngeke kube nabantu abanele abangaphethisela amadolobha ase-US naseCanada abe indawo enkulu, ngaphandle kwamadolobha amakhulu asevele enziwe i-New York, i-Los Angeles, ne-Mexico City.

Khonamanjalo, kuzoba nokukhula okungaphezulu kokwanele kwesibalo sabantu ukuze kuqhubekisele phambili ama-megacities ase-Asia kuze kube yiminyaka yawo-2030. Kumanje, ngo-2016, iTokyo imile kuqala ngabantu basemadolobheni abayizigidi ezingama-38, kulandele iDelhi ngezigidi ezingama-25 kanye neShanghai ngezigidi ezingama-23.

I-China: Ihlala emadolobheni ngazo zonke izindleko

Isibonelo esihlaba umxhwele kakhulu sokukhula kwamadolobha kanye nokwakhiwa kwamadolobha amakhulu yilokho okwenzeka eShayina.

NgoNdasa wezi-2014, uNdunankulu wase-China, u-Li Keqiang, umemezele ukuqaliswa “koHlelo Lukazwelonke Lokusungulwa Kwezindawo Ezintsha Emadolobheni.” Lolu wuhlelo lukazwelonke olunhloso yalo kuwukuthuthela amaphesenti angama-60 abantu baseShayina emadolobheni ngo-2020. Njengoba cishe izigidi ezingama-700 vele behlala emadolobheni, lokhu kuzobandakanya ukususa izigidi eziyi-100 eziphuma emiphakathini yazo yasemakhaya ziye ezindaweni ezisanda kwakhiwa zasemadolobheni. kuneshumi leminyaka.

Eqinisweni, ingqikithi yalolu hlelo ihlanganisa ukuhlanganisa inhloko-dolobha yayo, iBeijing, nedolobha eliyitheku laseTianjin, kanye nesifundazwe saseHebei sisonke, ukuze kwakhiwe indawo eminyene kakhulu. supercity okuthiwa, Jing-Jin-Ji. Njengoba ihlelelwe ukuhlanganisa amakhilomitha-skwele angaphezu kuka-132,000 (cishe usayizi wesifunda saseNew York) futhi ihlalise abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-130, le hybrid yesifunda sedolobha izoba enkulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni nasemlandweni.

Inhloso yalolu hlelo oluphambili ukugqugquzela ukukhula komnotho waseShayina phakathi nesimo samanje esibona ukuthi abantu abagugayo baqala ukwehlisa izinga lokukhuphuka komnotho wezwe. Ikakhulukazi, iChina ifuna ukukhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwempahla ekhaya ukuze umnotho wayo unganciki kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe ukuze uhlale unjalo.

Njengomthetho ojwayelekile, abantu basemadolobheni bavame ukudla kakhulu abantu basemaphandleni, futhi ngokusho kweNational Bureau of Statistics yaseChina, lokho kungenxa yokuthi abantu abahlala emadolobheni bahola ngokuphindwe ka-3.23 kunalabo abavela ezindaweni zasemaphandleni. Ukuze uthole umbono, umsebenzi wezomnotho ohlobene nokusetshenziswa kwabathengi e-Japan nase-US umele amaphesenti angu-61 kanye namaphesenti angu-68 ezomnotho zabo (2013). E-China, lelo nani lisondele kumaphesenti angama-45.

Ngakho-ke, i-China eshesha kakhulu ingenza abantu bayo basemadolobheni, lapho ingakhulisa ngokushesha umnotho wayo wokusetshenziswa kwasekhaya futhi igcine umnotho wayo wonke ukhula kahle phakathi neminyaka eyishumi ezayo.

Yini enika amandla imashi ebheke ekuthuthukisweni kwedolobha

Ayikho impendulo echazayo ukuthi kungani abantu abaningi bekhetha amadolobha kunamalokishi asemakhaya. Kodwa lokho abahlaziyi abaningi abangavumelana ngakho ukuthi izici eziqhubekisela phambili ukufudukela kwabantu emadolobheni zivame ukuwela kwenye yezindikimba ezimbili: ukufinyelela nokuxhumana.

Ake siqale ngokufinyelela. Ngokwezinga lokucabangela, kungase kungabi khona umehluko omkhulu kukhwalithi yempilo noma injabulo umuntu angase ayizwe ezindaweni zasemakhaya uma kuqhathaniswa nezindawo zasemadolobheni. Eqinisweni, abanye bakhetha kakhulu indlela yokuphila yasemaphandleni enokuthula kunehlathi elimatasa lasemadolobheni. Kodwa-ke, uma uqhathanisa lokhu kokubili mayelana nokufinyelela ezinsizeni nasezinsizeni, njengokufinyelela ezikoleni ezisezingeni eliphakeme, izibhedlela, noma ingqalasizinda yezokuthutha, izindawo zasemakhaya zisesimweni esingesihle.

Okunye okusobala okuphushela abantu emadolobheni wukuthola ingcebo nokuhlukahluka kwamathuba emisebenzi engekho ezindaweni zasemakhaya. Ngenxa yalokhu kungafani kwamathuba, ukwehlukana kwengcebo phakathi kwabahlali basemadolobheni nabasemaphandleni kukhulu futhi kuyakhula. Labo abazalelwa ezindaweni zasemaphandleni banethuba elikhulu lokubalekela ubumpofu ngokufudukela emadolobheni. Lokhu kubalekela emadolobheni kuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi 'indiza yasemakhaya.'

Futhi abahamba phambili kule ndiza yiMillennials. Njengoba kuchazwe ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lokuphila Kwabantu, izizukulwane ezisencane, ikakhulukazi iMillennials kanye ne-Centennials maduze, zidonsela endleleni yokuphila yasemadolobheni. Ngokufana nokundiza kwasemaphandleni, iMillennials nayo ihola 'indiza engaphansi kwedolobha' ungene ezinhlelweni zokuhlala zasemadolobheni ezihlangene futhi ezilula.

Kodwa uma sikhuluma iqiniso, kunezisusa eziningi ze-Millennials zokushayela kunokukhanga idolobha elikhulu. Ngokwesilinganiso, ucwaningo lukhombisa ukuthi ingcebo yabo namathemba emali engenayo aphansi ngokuphawulekayo kunezizukulwane ezedlule. Futhi yilawa mathemba ezezimali anesizotha anomthelela ekukhetheni kwabo indlela yokuphila. Isibonelo, abakwaMillennials bancamela ukuqasha, ukusebenzisa izinto zokuhamba zomphakathi kanye nabahlinzeki besevisi kanye nezokuzijabulisa njalo abasebangeni elihambayo, esikhundleni sokuba nempahla yendlu kanye nemoto nokushayela amabanga amade ukuya esitolo esiseduze—ukuthenga nemisebenzi eyayivamile kubo. abazali abacebile nogogo nomkhulu.

Ezinye izici ezihlobene nokufinyelela zihlanganisa:

Abantu asebethathe umhlalaphansi behlisa amakhaya abo ukuze bathole amafulethi ashibhile asemadolobheni;
Izikhukhula zemali yakwamanye amazwe zitheleka ezimakethe zezindlu zaseNtshonalanga zifuna ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphephile;
Futhi ngeminyaka yawo-2030s, amagagasi amakhulu kubabaleki besimo sezulu (ikakhulukazi abavela emazweni asathuthuka) ababalekela izindawo zasemakhaya nezasemadolobheni lapho ingqalasizinda eyisisekelo iye yanqotshwa yizinto. Sixoxa ngalokhu ngokuningiliziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu chungechunge.

Nokho mhlawumbe into enkulu enika amandla ukufudukela emadolobheni ingqikithi yokuxhumana. Khumbula ukuthi akubona nje abantu basemakhaya abathuthela emadolobheni, kodwa futhi abantu basemadolobheni abathuthela emadolobheni amakhulu kakhulu noma aklanywe kangcono. Abantu abanamaphupho athile noma amakhono athile bakhangwa amadolobha noma izifunda lapho kunabantu abaningi ababelana ngezinto abazithandayo—uma abantu abanomqondo ofanayo baningi, amathuba engeziwe okuxhumana kanye nokuzenzela imigomo yobungcweti neyomuntu siqu isilinganiso esisheshayo.

Isibonelo, umsunguli wezobuchwepheshe noma wesayensi e-US, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi idolobha angahlala kulo njengamanje, uzozizwa edonsa kanzima emadolobheni nezifunda ezinobuchwepheshe, njenge-San Francisco ne-Silicon Valley. Ngokunjalo, umdwebi wase-US uzogcina edonsela emadolobheni anethonya lamasiko, njenge-New York noma i-Los Angeles.

Zonke lezi zici zokufinyelela kanye nokuxhumeka zibhebhezela i-condo boom yokwakha amadolobha amakhulu azayo emhlabeni.

Amadolobha aqhuba umnotho wesimanje

Esinye isici esisishiyile engxoxweni engenhla ukuthi, ezingeni likazwelonke, ohulumeni bakhetha kanjani ukutshala ingxenye enkulu yemali yentela ezindaweni ezinabantu abaningi.

Umbono ulula: Ukutshala imali kwingqalasizinda yezimboni noma yasemadolobheni kanye nokuminyana kunikeza inzuzo ephezulu ekutshalweni kwezimali kunokweseka izifunda zasemakhaya. Kanjalo, Ucwaningo lubonisiwe ukuthi ukuphindaphindeka kwesibalo sabantu bedolobha kukhulisa umkhiqizo noma kuphi phakathi kwamaphesenti ayisithupha nangama-28. Ngokufanayo, isazi sezomnotho u-Edward Glaeser ukuphawula ukuthi imali engenayo yomuntu ngamunye emiphakathini eminingi yomhlaba yasemadolobheni iphindwe kane kunaleyo yemiphakathi eminingi yasemakhaya. Futhi a umbiko nguMcKinsey kanye neNkampani ithe amadolobha akhulayo angangenisa u-$30 trillion ngonyaka emnothweni womhlaba ngo-2025.

Sekukonke, uma amadolobha esefinyelele izinga elithile lobukhulu besibalo sabantu, ukuminyana, ukusondelana ngokomzimba, aqala ukwenza lula ukushintshisana kwabantu ngemibono. Lokhu kukhula kalula kokuxhumana kunika ithuba kanye nokuqanjwa okusha ngaphakathi naphakathi kwezinkampani, ukudala ubambiswano kanye neziqalo—konke lokhu okukhiqiza ingcebo entsha kanye nemali emnothweni wonkana.

Ithonya lezombangazwe elikhulayo lamadolobha amakhulu

Umqondo ophusile kulandela ukuthi njengoba amadolobha eqala ukumunca amaphesenti amakhulu kakhulu abantu, azoqala futhi ukubusa iphesenti elikhulu kakhulu labavoti. Beka enye indlela: Phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili, abavoti basemadolobheni bazokwedlula abavoti basemakhaya ngenani elimangalisayo. Uma lokhu sekwenzekile, izinto ezibalulekile kanye nezinsiza zizosuka emiphakathini yasemakhaya ziye kweyasemadolobheni ngamanani asheshayo.

Kodwa mhlawumbe umthelela ojule kakhulu ozokwenziwa yile bhilidi entsha yokuvota ukuvota ngamandla engeziwe kanye nokuzimela emadolobheni abo.

Nakuba amadolobha ethu esalokhu engaphansi kwesithupha sezishayamthetho zombuso nezombuso, ukukhula kwawo okuqhubekayo ekubeni amadolobha amakhulu asebenzayo kuncike ngokuphelele ekutholeni intela engeziwe namandla okuphatha adluliselwe kulawa mazinga aphezulu kahulumeni. Idolobhakazi eliyizigidi eziyi-10 noma ngaphezulu alikwazi ukusebenza kahle uma lihlala lidinga ukugunyazwa emazingeni aphezulu kahulumeni ukuze liqhubeke nenqwaba yemiklamo yengqalasizinda kanye nezinhlelo elizilawula nsuku zonke.

Amadolobha ethu amakhulu anechweba, ikakhulukazi, alawula ukungena okukhulu kwezinsiza nengcebo evela kubalingani bohwebo bomhlaba wonke. Khonamanjalo, inhloko-dolobha yezwe ngalinye isivele isivele ingekho (futhi kwezinye izimo, abaholi bamazwe ngamazwe) lapho kukhulunywa khona ngokuqaliswa kwezinhlelo zikahulumeni ezihlobene nobubha nokunciphisa ubugebengu, ukulawula ubhubhane kanye nokufuduka kwabantu, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokulwa nobushokobezi. Ngezindlela eziningi, amadolobha amakhulu anamuhla asevele esebenza njengezifunda ezincane eziqashelwa umhlaba wonke ngokufana nezifunda zase-Italy zeRenaissance noma iSingapore namuhla.

Uhlangothi olumnyama lwama-megacities akhulayo

Ngazo zonke lezi zincomo ezikhazimulayo zamadolobha, ngabe siyadelela ukube asizange sikhulume ngobubi bala madolobha amakhulu. Ngaphandle kwama-stereotypes, ingozi enkulu yamadolobha amakhulu abhekene nayo emhlabeni wonke ukukhula kwemijondolo.

Ngokusho ku-UN-Habitat, imijondolo ichazwa ngokuthi “indawo yokuhlala engenawo amanzi ahlanzekile, ukukhucululwa kwendle, nezinye izingqalasizinda ezibalulekile, kanye nezindlu ezingezinhle, ukuminyana kwabantu abaningi, nokungabikhona kwegunya elingokomthetho ezindlini.” ETH Zurich enwetshiwe kule ncazelo ukwengeza ukuthi imijondolo ingase futhi ibe “nezinhlaka zokuphatha ezibuthakathaka noma ezingekho (okungenani kuziphathimandla ezisemthethweni), ukungavikeleki kwezomthetho nokungokomzimba okusabalele, kanye nokufinyelela okulinganiselwe kakhulu emsebenzini osemthethweni.”

Inkinga ukuthi kusukela namuhla (2016) cishe abantu abayizigidigidi emhlabeni jikelele bahlala kulokho okungachazwa ngokuthi imijondolo. Futhi eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo, leli nani lizokhula kakhulu ngenxa yezizathu ezintathu: inqwaba yabantu basemakhaya abafuna umsebenzi (funda incwadi yethu Ikusasa Lomsebenzi series), izinhlekelele zemvelo ezibangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu (funda yethu Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu series), nezingxabano zesikhathi esizayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi nase-Asia mayelana nokufinyelela ezinsizeni zemvelo (futhi, uchungechunge Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu).

Ukugxila ephuzwini lokugcina, ababaleki abavela ezindaweni ezikhungethwe yimpi e-Afrika, noma eSyria muva nje, baphoqeleka ukuthi bahlale isikhathi eside emakamu ababaleki okuthi kuzo zonke izinhloso nezinhloso ezehlukile kunemijondolo. Okubi kakhulu, ngokusho kwe-UNHCR, isilinganiso sokuhlala ekamu lababaleki singaba iminyaka engu-17.

Lezi zinkambu, le mijondolo, izimo zabo zihlala zingezinhle ngoba ohulumeni nezinhlangano ezizimele bakholelwa ukuthi izimo ezibenza bagcwale abantu (izinhlekelele zemvelo nezingxabano) ezesikhashana. Kodwa impi yaseSyria isineminyaka emihlanu ubudala, kusukela ngo-2016, ingapheli. Izingxabano ezithile e-Afrika seziqhubeke isikhathi eside. Uma kubhekwa ubukhulu bezibalo zabo sezizonke, kungenziwa impikiswano yokuthi bamele enye inguqulo yamadolobha amakhulu akusasa. Futhi uma ohulumeni bengabaphathi ngendlela, ngokusebenzisa ingqalasizinda yezimali kanye nezinsizakalo ezifanele zokuthuthukisa kancane kancane le mijondolo ibe amadolobhana ahlala unomphela, khona-ke ukukhula kwale mijondolo kuzoholela ekusongeni okucashile.

Uma zinganakwa, izimo ezimbi zemijondolo ekhulayo zingasakazekela nangaphandle, zibangele izinsongo ezihlukahlukene zezombangazwe, ezomnotho, nezokuphepha ezizweni ngokubanzi. Isibonelo, le mijondolo iyindawo ekahle yokuzalela izenzo zobugebengu obuhleliwe (njengoba kubonakala kuma-favelas ase-Rio De Janeiro, e-Brazil) kanye nokuqashwa kwamaphekula (njengoba kubonakala emakamu ababaleki e-Iraq nase-Syria), ababambiqhaza bawo bangabangela uthuthuva ezweni. imizi umakhelwane. Ngokunjalo, izimo zezempilo zomphakathi ezingezinhle zale mijondolo ziyindawo ekahle yokuzalela uhla lwamagciwane athathelwanayo ukuze asakazekele ngaphandle ngokushesha. Sekukonke, izinsongo zokuphepha kazwelonke zakusasa zingase zivele kuleyo mijondolo emikhulu yesikhathi esizayo lapho kungenalutho khona ekubuseni nengqalasizinda.

Ukuklama idolobha lakusasa

Noma ngabe ukufuduka okuvamile noma isimo sezulu noma ababaleki abangqubuzanayo, amadolobha emhlabeni wonke ahlela ngokungathí sina ukugcwala kwezakhamuzi ezintsha alindele ukuhlala ngaphakathi kwemingcele yedolobha lawo emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Yingakho abahleli bamadolobha abasabheka phambili sebevele bakha amasu amasha okuhlela ukukhula okusimeme kwamadolobha akusasa. Sizocubungula ikusasa lokuhlela idolobha esahlukweni sesibili salolu chungechunge.