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ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Izifo eziwubhadane zakusasa kanye nezidakamizwa ezinkulu ezakhelwe ukulwa nazo: Ikusasa Lezempilo P2

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 07:57

Unyaka ngamunye, kufa abantu abangu-50,000 e-US, 700,000 emhlabeni wonke, ngenxa yezifo ezibonakala zilula ezingenawo umuthi wokulwa nazo. Okubi nakakhulu, ucwaningo lwakamuva oluvela ku-World Health Organization (WHO) luthole ukuthi ukumelana nama-antibiotics kusakazeka emhlabeni wonke, sonke lesi sikhathi ukulungela kwethu ubhubhane lwesikhathi esizayo njengokwesabisa kwe-Eloba ka-2014-15 kwatholakala kungenele ngokudabukisayo. Futhi nakuba inani lezifo ezibhalwe phansi likhula, inani lezokwelapha ezisanda kutholwa liyancipha njalo ngemva kweminyaka eyishumi.

Lona umhlaba imboni yethu yezemithi edonsa kanzima.

Ukukhuluma iqiniso, impilo yakho iyonke namuhla ingcono kakhulu kunalokho ebingaba yikho eminyakeni eyi-100 edlule. Ngaleso sikhathi, isilinganiso sokuphila sasiyiminyaka engama-48 kuphela. Kulezi zinsuku, abantu abaningi bangalindela ukuthi ngelinye ilanga bacime amakhandlela ngekhekhe labo lokuzalwa leminyaka engama-80.

Okwaba nengxenye enkulu kulokhu kuphindeka kabili kwesikhathi sokuphila kwaba ukutholakala kwemithi elwa namagciwane, eyokuqala kwaba i-Penicillin ngo-1943. Ngaphambi kokuba lowo muthi utholakale, ukuphila kwakuntekenteke kakhulu.

Izifo ezivamile ezifana ne-strep throat noma inyumoniya zazisongela ukuphila. Ukuhlinzwa okuvamile esikuthatha kalula namuhla, njengokufaka ama-pacemaker noma ukushintsha amadolo nezinqulu zabadala, bekungaba nomphumela wokufa komuntu oyedwa kwabayisithupha. Ukuklwebheka nje kwesihlahla somunga noma inxeba lengozi yasemsebenzini bekungakushiya engcupheni yokutheleleka ngezifo ezimbi kakhulu, ukunqunywa kwesitho, futhi kwezinye izimo, ukufa.

Futhi ngokusho ku-WHO, leli yizwe esingase sibuyele kulo—inkathi yangemva kokukhipha ama-antibiotic.

Ukumelana nama-antibiotic kuba usongo lomhlaba wonke

Kalula nje, isidakamizwa esilwa namagciwane siyingqamuzana elincane eliklanyelwe ukuhlasela amagciwane okuhlosiwe. Ukuhlikihla ukuthi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, amagciwane akha ukumelana naleyo mithi elwa namagciwane kuze kufike lapho ingasasebenzi khona. Lokho kuphoqa i-Big Pharma ukuthi isebenze njalo ekwakheni ama-antibiotic amasha ukuze athathe indawo yalawo magciwane angamelana nawo. Cabangela lokhu:

I-penicillin yasungulwa ngo-1943, futhi ukumelana nayo kwaqala ngo-1945;
I-Vancomycin yasungulwa ngo-1972, ukumelana nayo kwaqala ngo-1988;
Imipenem yasungulwa ngo-1985, ukumelana nayo kwaqala ngo-1998;
I-Daptomycin yasungulwa ngo-2003, ukumelana nayo kwaqala ngo-2004.

Lo mdlalo wekati negundane uyashesha kakhulu kunalokho i-Big Pharma engakwazi ukukukhokhela ukuhlala ngaphambi kwawo. Kuthatha iminyaka eyishumi kanye nezigidigidi zamaRandi ukuthuthukisa isigaba esisha semithi elwa namagciwane. Amagciwane azala isizukulwane esisha njalo emizuzwini engama-20, ekhula, eguquguqukayo, eshintsha kuze kube isizukulwane esisodwa sithola indlela yokunqoba isibulala-magciwane. Sekufike ezingeni lapho kungasazuzisi khona ukuthi i-Big Pharma itshale ama-antibiotic amasha, njengoba ephelelwa yisikhathi ngokushesha.

Kodwa kungani amagciwane enqoba ama-antibiotic ngokushesha kunakudala? Izizathu ezimbalwa:

Abaningi bethu basebenzisa ngokweqile ama-antibiotic esikhundleni sokuvele baqinise ukutheleleka ngokwemvelo. Lokhu kuveza amabhaktheriya emizimbeni yethu kuma-antibiotics kaningi, okuwavumela ithuba lokwakha ukumelana nawo.
Simpompa imfuyo yethu egcwele ama-antibiotics, ngaleyo ndlela sethula ama-antibiotic engeziwe ohlelweni lwakho ngokudla kwethu.
Njengoba inani lethu lamabhaluni lisuka ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane eziyisikhombisa namuhla liye ezigidini eziyisishagalolunye ngo-2040, amagciwane azoba nabantu abaningi kakhulu abangahlala futhi aguquke kuwo.
Umhlaba wethu uxhumeke kakhulu ngohambo lwesimanje kangangokuthi izinhlobo ezintsha zamagciwane amelana nama-antibiotic zingafinyelela kuwo wonke amagumbi omhlaba ungakapheli unyaka.

Okuwukuphela komugqa wesiliva kulesi simo samanje ukuthi u-2015 wabona ukwethulwa kwemithi elwa namagciwane ebizwa ngokuthi, I-Teixobactin. Ihlasela amagciwane ngendlela entsha ososayensi abathemba ukuthi izosigcina siphambi kokumelana kwabo ekugcineni okungenani elinye ishumi leminyaka, uma kungenjalo.

Kodwa ukumelana namagciwane akuyona ukuphela kwengozi i-Big Pharma elandelwayo.

I-Biosurveillance

Uma ubungabheka igrafu ehlela inani lokufa okungezona kwemvelo okwenzeke phakathi kuka-1900 kuze kube namuhla, ungalindela ukubona ama-humps amabili amakhulu cishe ngo-1914 no-1945: Izimpi Zomhlaba ezimbili. Kodwa-ke, ungase umangale ukuthola i-hump yesithathu phakathi kokubili cishe ngo-1918-9. Lona kwakunguMkhuhlane WaseSpain futhi wabulala abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-65 emhlabeni wonke, izigidi ezingu-20 ngaphezu kweWWI.

Ngaphandle kwezinkinga zemvelo nezimpi zomhlaba, izifo eziwubhadane yizona kuphela izehlakalo ezinamandla okuqeda ngokushesha abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-10 ngonyaka owodwa.

Umkhuhlane waseSpain kwaba yisigameko sethu sokugcina esikhulu esiwubhubhane, kodwa eminyakeni yakamuva, izifo eziwubhadane ezincane ezifana ne-SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), kanye nokuqubuka kwe-Ebola eNtshonalanga Afrika ka-2014-5 zisikhumbuze ukuthi usongo lusekhona. Kepha okuvezwe ukuqubuka kwakamuva kwe-Ebola ukuthi ikhono lethu lokuqukatha lezi zifo eziwubhubhane lishiya okuningi okufanele ukufiseleka.

Kungakho abameli, njengoBill Gates odumile, sebesebenzisana nama-NGOs wamazwe omhlaba ukwakha inethiwekhi yomhlaba wonke ye-biosurveillance ukuze ilandelele kangcono, ibikezele, futhi ngethemba yokuvikela ubhubhane oluzayo. Lolu hlelo luzolandelela imibiko yezempilo yomhlaba wonke ezingeni likazwelonke, futhi, ngo-2025, izinga lomuntu ngamunye, njengoba iphesenti elikhulu labantu liqala ukulandelela impilo yabo ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezikhulayo nezigqokwayo.

Kodwa-ke, nakuba yonke le datha yesikhathi sangempela izovumela izinhlangano, njenge-WHO, ukuthi zisabele ngokushesha ekuqubukeni, ngeke kusho lutho uma singakwazi ukwakha imithi yokugoma emisha ngokushesha ngokwanele ukumisa lezi zifo eziwubhadane emikhondweni yazo.

Ukusebenza esihlabathini esisheshayo ukuklama imithi emisha

Imboni yezokwenziwa kwemithi ibone intuthuko enkulu kwezobuchwepheshe manje esinayo. Ukuthi ukwehla okukhulu kwezindleko zokuqopha i-genome yomuntu isuka ku- $100 million iye ngaphansi kwe- $1,000 namuhla, ukuya ekhonweni lokubeka ikhathalogi nokucacisa ukwakheka kwamangqamuzana ezifo, ungacabanga ukuthi i-Big Pharma inakho konke ekudingayo ukwelapha zonke izifo. encwadini.

Hhayi, akunjalo.

Namuhla, sikwazile ukucacisa ukwakheka kwamangqamuzana ezifo ezingaba ngu-4,000, okuningi kwalokhu kwaziswa okuqoqwe phakathi neminyaka eyishumi edlule. Kodwa kulawo angu-4,000, zingaki esinazo izindlela zokwelapha? Cishe 250. Kungani lesi sikhala sikhulu kangaka? Kungani singelapha izifo eziningi?

Ngenkathi imboni yezobuchwepheshe iqhakaza ngaphansi koMthetho kaMoore—okuphawulwa ukuthi inani lama-transistors kuyintshi yesikwele ngayinye kumasekethe ahlanganisiwe lizophindeka kabili ngonyaka—imboni yezokwenziwa kwemithi ihlupheka ngaphansi koMthetho ka-Eroom ('Moore' opelwe emuva)—okuphawulwa ukuthi inani lemithi elivunyelwe ibhiliyoni kumadola e-R&D uhhafu njalo ngemva kweminyaka eyisishiyagalolunye, elungiselelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali.

Akekho noyedwa umuntu noma inqubo engasolwa ngalokhu kwehla okukhubazayo kokukhiqizwa kwemithi. Abanye basola indlela izidakamizwa ezixhaswa ngayo, abanye basola uhlelo lwelungelo lobunikazi olucindezela ngokweqile, izindleko ezeqile zokuhlola, iminyaka edingekayo ukuze kugunyazwe umthetho—zonke lezi zici zidlala indima kule modeli ephukile.

Ngenhlanhla, kukhona amathrendi athembisayo lapho ndawonye angasiza ekwephuleni ijika eliya phansi le-Eroom.

Idatha yezokwelapha eshibhile

Inkambiso yokuqala yile esesivele siyithinte: izindleko zokuqoqa nokucubungula idatha yezokwelapha. Izindleko zokuhlola i-genome ephelele bawile ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-1,000 kuya ngaphansi kwe-$1,000. Futhi njengoba abantu abaningi beqala ukulandelela impilo yabo ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezikhethekile nezinto ezigqokwayo, ikhono lokuqoqa idatha ngesilinganiso esikhulu lizogcina selikhona (iphuzu esizolithinta ngezansi).

Ukufinyelela kwedemokhrasi kubuchwepheshe bezempilo obuthuthukile

Isici esikhulu esibangela ukwehla kwezindleko zokucutshungulwa kwedatha yezokwelapha ukwehla kwezindleko zobuchwepheshe obushiwo ukucutshungulwa. Ukubeka eceleni izinto ezisobala, njengezindleko eziwayo kanye nokufinyelela kuma-supercomputers angadla amasethi amakhulu edatha, amalebhu amancane ocwaningo lwezokwelapha manje ayakwazi ukukhokhela imishini yokukhiqiza yezokwelapha eyayivame ukubiza amashumi ezigidi.

Enye yamathrendi azuza isithakazelo esikhulu ihlanganisa amaphrinta amakhemikhali e-3D (isb. one futhi ezimbili) ezovumela abacwaningi bezokwelapha ukuba bahlanganise amangqamuzana ezinto eziphilayo eziyinkimbinkimbi, kuze kube amaphilisi adlekayo angenziwa ngokwezifiso esigulini. Ngo-2025, lobu buchwepheshe buzovumela amaqembu ocwaningo nezibhedlela ukuthi baphrinte amakhemikhali nemithi ebhalwe ngokwezifiso endlini, ngaphandle kokuncika kubathengisi bangaphandle. Amaphrinta e-3D azayo azogcina ephrinte okokusebenza kwezokwelapha okuthuthuke kakhulu, kanye namathuluzi okuhlinzwa alula adingekayo ezinkambisweni zokusebenza eziyinyumba.

Ukuhlola imithi emisha

Phakathi kwezici ezibiza kakhulu nezidla isikhathi kakhulu ekudalweni kwezidakamizwa yisigaba sokuhlola. Imithi emisha idinga ukudlula ukulingisa kwekhompuyutha, bese kuba ukuhlolwa kwezilwane, bese kuba ukuhlolwa kwabantu okukhawulelwe, bese kuba nezimvume ezilawulayo ngaphambi kokugunyazwa ukusetshenziswa ngumphakathi jikelele. Ngenhlanhla, kukhona izinto ezintsha ezenzekayo kulesi sigaba.

Okuhamba phambili kuzo wuhlelo olusha esingaluchaza ngokungagwegwesi izingxenye zomzimba ku-chip. Esikhundleni se-silicon namasekhethi, lawa mashiphu amancane aqukethe uketshezi lwangempela, oluphilayo namaseli aphilayo akhiwe ngendlela yokulingisa isitho esithile somuntu. Izidakamizwa zokuhlola zingase zijovwe kulawa mashiphu ukuze kuvezwe ukuthi umuthi uzoyithinta kanjani imizimba yabantu yangempela. Lokhu kudlula isidingo sokuhlolwa kwezilwane, kunikeza ukumelela okunembe kakhudlwana kwemiphumela yomuthi ku-physiology yomuntu, futhi kuvumela abacwaningi ukuthi benze ukuhlolwa okungamakhulu kuya ezinkulungwaneni, besebenzisa amakhulu kuya ezinkulungwaneni zemithi ehlukile nemithamo, kumakhulu kuya ezinkulungwaneni zalawa maships, ngaleyo ndlela kusheshiswe izigaba zokuhlolwa kwezidakamizwa kakhulu.

Khona-ke uma kuziwa ekulingweni kwabantu, ama-startups afana myTomorrows, izoxhumanisa kangcono iziguli ezigulela ukufa nale mithi emisha, yokuhlola. Lokhu kusiza abantu abasondelene nokufa ukuthi bathole ukufinyelela emithini engase ibasindise kuyilapho ihlinzeka nge-Big Pharma ngezifundo ezihlolwayo (uma zelashiwe) ezingase zisheshise inqubo yokugunyazwa yokulawula ukuze le mithi iyiswe emakethe.

Ikusasa lokunakekelwa kwezempilo alikhiqizwa ngobuningi

Lezi zindlela ezintsha ezishiwo ngenhla ekuthuthukisweni kwama-antibiotic, ukulungela ubhubhane, kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezidakamizwa sezivele zenzeka futhi kufanele zibe sezisungulwe kahle ngo-2020-2022. Kodwa-ke, izinto ezintsha esizozihlola kulo lonke lolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lezempilo zizoveza ukuthi ikusasa langempela lokunakekelwa kwezempilo alikho ekudaleni imithi esindisa impilo yabantu abaningi, kodwa elomuntu ngamunye.