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Amathrendi azobumba kabusha ifemu yesimanje yabameli: Ikusasa lomthetho P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

Msombuluko, 09/14/2020 - 11:13

Imishini yokufunda ingqondo enquma ukukholelwa. Isistimu yezomthetho ezenzakalelayo. Ukuboshwa okubonakalayo. Ukusebenza komthetho kuzobona izinguquko eziningi kule minyaka engu-25 ezayo kunalokho okubonakale eminyakeni eyi-100 edlule.

Uhlu lwamathrendi omhlaba kanye nobuchwepheshe obusha obusha obuyisisekelo buzoshintsha indlela izakhamuzi zansuku zonke eziwubona ngayo umthetho. Kodwa ngaphambi kokuba sihlole leli kusasa elithakazelisayo, okokuqala kudingeka siqonde izinselele okufanele zibhekane nabasebenzi bethu bomthetho: abameli bethu.

Amathrendi womhlaba wonke anomthelela emthethweni

Kusukela ezingeni eliphezulu, kunezinhlobonhlobo zezitayela zomhlaba ezithinta indlela umthetho osetshenziswa ngayo kunoma yiliphi izwe. Isibonelo esiyinhloko ukuhwebelana komthetho ngamazwe ngamazwe ngokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke. Kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1980 ikakhulukazi, ukuqhuma kohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe sekuholele ekutheni umnotho wamazwe emhlabeni wonke uncike kakhulu komunye nomunye. Kodwa ukuze lokhu kusebenzisana kusebenze, amazwe ahwebelana kwadingeka avume kancane kancane ukwenza imithetho yawo ibe sezingeni/ahlanganise phakathi kwawo.

Njengoba amaShayina ephushela ukwenza ibhizinisi elengeziwe ne-US, i-US yaphusha i-China ukuthi ithathe eminye yemithetho yayo yobunikazi. Njengoba amazwe amaningi aseYurophu eshintshela ukukhiqiza kwawo eSoutheast Asia, la mazwe asathuthuka acindezelwa ukuthi athuthukise futhi asebenzise kangcono amalungelo awo abantu kanye nemithetho yezabasebenzi. Lezi yizibonelo ezimbili kuphela kweziningi lapho amazwe avumelene khona ukwamukela izindinganiso ezivunyelanisiwe emhlabeni wonke zemisebenzi, ukunqanda ubugebengu, inkontileka, ukuhlukunyezwa, impahla yengqondo neyomthelo. Sekukonke, imithetho eyamukelwe ivamise ukugeleza isuka kulawo mazwe anezimakethe ezicebe kakhulu iye kulawo anezimakethe ezimpofu kakhulu.

Le nqubo yokumiswa komthetho iyenzeka futhi ezingeni lesifunda ngezivumelwano zezombusazwe nezokubambisana—i-ahem, i-European Union—nangezivumelwano zohwebo lwamahhala njenge-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) kanye ne-Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

Konke lokhu kusemqoka ngoba njengoba kwenziwa uhwebo olwengeziwe emazweni ngamazwe, amafemu ezomthetho aya ngokuya ephoqeleka ukuba abe nolwazi ngemithetho yamazwe ahlukene kanye nendlela yokuxazulula izingxabano zamabhizinisi ezeqa imingcele. Ngokufanayo, amadolobha anabantu abaningi abavela kwamanye amazwe adinga amafemu asemthethweni akwaziyo ukuxazulula izingxabano zomshado, ifa, nezindawo phakathi kwamalungu omndeni kuwo wonke amazwekazi.

Sekukonke, lokhu kusebenzelana kwamazwe ngamazwe kohlelo lwezomthetho kuzoqhubeka kuze kube sekuqaleni kweminyaka yowezi-2030, emva kwalokho izimo eziqhudelanayo zizoqala ukukhuthaza ukukhuphuka kokuhlukana okuvuselelwe kwezomthetho kwasekhaya kanye nesifunda. Lawa mathrendi afaka:

Ukuzenzakalela kokukhiqiza kanye nokuqashwa kwabantu ngamakhola amhlophe sibonga ukukhuphuka kwamarobhothi athuthukile kanye nobuhlakani bokwenziwa. Kuxoxwe okokuqala kweyethu Ikusasa Lomsebenzi series, ikhono lokusebenzisa ngokugcwele ukukhiqiza nokushintsha yonke imisebenzi kusho ukuthi izinkampani azisadingi ukuthumela imisebenzi phesheya kwezilwandle ukuze zithole imisebenzi eshibhile. Amarobhothi azowavumela ukuthi agcine ukukhiqizwa kusekhaya futhi ngokwenza kanjalo, anciphise abasebenzi, izimpahla zamazwe ngamazwe, kanye nezindleko zokulethwa ekhaya.
Izizwe ezibuthakathaka ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Njengoba kubonisiwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu uchungechunge, ezinye izizwe zizothinteka kakhulu emiphumeleni yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kunamanye. Izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu abazobhekana nazo zizoba nomthelela omubi emnothweni wabo kanye nokubandakanyeka ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe.
Izizwe ezibuthaka ngenxa yempi. Izifunda ezifana neMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nezingxenye ze-Sub-Saharan Africa zisengcupheni yokwanda kwezingxabano ngenxa yokungqubuzana kwezinsiza okubangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokwanda kwabantu (bona Ikusasa Labantu uchungechunge lomongo).
Umphakathi owandayo onenzondo. Njengoba kubonwe ukwesekwa kukaDonald Trump kanye noBernie Sanders kumaprimaries omongameli wase-US wango-2016, njengoba kubonakala Ivoti le-Brexit lango-2016, futhi njengoba kubonakala ngokwanda kokuthandwa kwamaqembu ezepolitiki akude kwesokudla kulandela inhlekelele yababaleki baseSyria yango-2015/16, izakhamizi zamazwe ezizizwa sengathi zithinteke kabi (ngokwezimali) ngokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke zicindezela ohulumeni bazo ukuthi babheke ngaphakathi futhi benqabe. izivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe ezinciphisa uxhaso lwasekhaya kanye nokuvikela.

Lezi zindlela zizoba nomthelela kumafemu ezomthetho wesikhathi esizayo okuzothi ngaleso sikhathi zibe nokutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu phesheya kwezilwandle kanye nokuhwebelana kwezamabhizinisi, futhi kuyodingeka ukuthi zihlele kabusha amafemu azo ukuze ziphinde zigxile kakhulu ezimakethe zasekhaya.

Kuso sonke lesi sikhathi sokunwetshwa nokufinyezwa komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kuzoba ukunwetshwa kanye nokuwohloka komnotho wonkana. Ezinkampanini zabameli, ukwehla komnotho ngo-2008-9 kubangele ukwehla okukhulu ekuthengisweni kanye nentshisekelo eyengeziwe kwezinye izindlela zomthetho esikhundleni samafemu omthetho wendabuko. Phakathi naleyo nhlekelele, amaklayenti asemthethweni abeke ingcindezi enkulu kumafemu asemthethweni ukuze athuthukise ukusebenza kahle kwawo futhi anciphise izindleko. Le ngcindezi igqugquzele ukwanda kwezinguquko eziningi zakamuva kanye nobuchwepheshe ngenxa yokuguqula ukusebenza komthetho ngokuphelele kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.

ISilicon Valley iphazamisa umthetho

Kusukela ngo-2008-9 ukwehla komnotho, amafemu ezomthetho aseqalile ukuhlola ubuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene ezethemba ukuthi ekugcineni azovumela abameli bazo ukuthi bachithe isikhathi esiningi benza lokho abakwenza kangcono kakhulu: ukwenza umthetho nokunikeza izeluleko zezomthetho ezingochwepheshe.

Isofthiwe entsha manje imakethwa ezinkampanini zomthetho ukuze zizisize zenze imisebenzi yokuphatha eyisisekelo ngokuzenzakalelayo njengokuphatha nokwabelana ngemibhalo ngokuphepha, ukubizelwa kwamakhasimende, ukukhokhisa, kanye nokuxhumana. Ngokufanayo, amafemu omthetho aya ngokuya asebenzisa isoftware yokwenza izifanekiso ezivumela ukuthi zibhale imibhalo ehlukene yezomthetho (njengezinkontileka) ngemizuzu esikhundleni samahora.

Ngaphandle kwemisebenzi yokuphatha, ubuchwepheshe buphinde buqashwe emisebenzini yocwaningo lwezomthetho, ebizwa ngokuthi i-electronic discovery noma i-e-discovery. Lena isofthiwe esebenzisa umqondo wobuhlakani bokwenziwa obizwa nge-predictive coding (futhi maduze inductive logic programming) ukusesha izintaba zemibhalo yezomthetho neyezezimali ukuze amacala ngamanye athole ulwazi olubalulekile noma ubufakazi obuzosetshenziswa ekumangaleleni.

Ukuyisa lokhu kwelinye izinga ukwethulwa kwakamuva kukaRoss, umzalwane wekhompuyutha edumile ye-IBM, i-Watson. Ngenkathi uWatson ethola umsebenzi wokuba i-career umsizi wezokwelapha othuthukile ngemva kwemizuzu engu-15 yodumo ewina iJeopardy, uRoss wayeklanyelwe ukuba uchwepheshe wezomthetho wedijithali.

As kuchazwe nge-IBM, abameli sebengakwazi manje ukubuza imibuzo kaRoss ngesiNgisi esilula bese uRoss ezoqhubeka nokuhlanganisa "indikimba yomthetho futhi abuyisele impendulo ekhonjiwe kanye nokufundwa kwezihloko ezivela emthethweni, umthetho wamacala, kanye nemithombo yesibili." U-Ross uphinde aqaphe intuthuko entsha yomthetho 24/7 futhi azise abameli ngezinguquko noma izethulo ezintsha ezingokomthetho ezingase zibe nomthelela emacaleni abo.

Sekukonke, lezi zindlela ezintsha ezishintshayo zihlelelwe ukunciphisa kakhulu umthwalo womsebenzi ezinkampanini eziningi zezomthetho kuze kube yilapho ochwepheshe bezomthetho abaningi bebikezela ukuthi ngo-2025, imisebenzi yezomthetho efana nabasizi bezomthetho nabasizi bezomthetho izobe isiphelelwe yisikhathi. Lokhu kuzosindisa izigidi zamafemu omthetho uma kubhekwa ukuthi iholo elimaphakathi lonyaka lommeli omncane owenza umsebenzi wocwaningo uRoss ngelinye ilanga azothatha izintambo lilinganiselwa ku-$100,000. Futhi ngokungafani nalo mmeli osemncane, uRoss akanayo inkinga yokusebenza ubusuku nemini futhi akasoze ahlupheka ngokwenza iphutha ngenxa yezimo zabantu ezixakile njengokukhathala noma ukuphazamiseka noma ukulala.

Kulesi sikhathi esizayo, okuwukuphela kwesizathu sokuqasha ozakwethu bonyaka wokuqala (abameli abancane) kuzoba ukufundisa nokuqeqesha isizukulwane esilandelayo sabameli abakhulu. Okwamanje, abameli abanolwazi bazoqhubeka nokuhlala beqashwe ngendlela ezuzisayo njengoba labo abadinga usizo lwezomthetho oluyinkimbinkimbi bezoqhubeka nokukhetha imibono yabantu kanye nokuqonda … okungenani okwamanje.

Ngaleso sikhathi, ngasohlangothini lwebhizinisi, amakhasimende azokwengeza amalayisense asekelwe efwini, abameli be-AI ukuthi banikeze izeluleko zomthetho ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2020, beyeka ukusetshenziswa kwabameli babantu ngokuphelele ekusebenzelaneni kwebhizinisi okuyisisekelo. Laba bameli be-AI bazokwazi ngisho nokubikezela umphumela ongase ube khona wengxabano yezomthetho, basize izinkampani zinqume ukuthi zenze imali ebizayo yini yokuqasha inkampani yezomthetho yendabuko ukuze ifake isicelo sokumangalela umuntu esiqhudelana naye.

Yebo, akukho kulokhu okuqanjwa kabusha obekungacatshangelwa nanamuhla ukube amafemu abameli nawo azange abhekane nengcindezi yokushintsha isisekelo sendlela ezenza ngayo imali: ihora elikhokhiswayo.

Ukushintsha izinxephezelo zenzuzo zezinkampani zabameli

Ngokomlando, esinye sesikhubekiso esikhulu esivimbe amafemu omthetho ekuthatheni ubuchwepheshe obusha ihora lokukhokhiswa elisezingeni lomkhakha. Lapho kukhokhiswa amakhasimende njalo ngehora, asikho isikhuthazo esincane sokuthi abameli basebenzise ubuchwepheshe obuzobavumela ukuthi bonge isikhathi, njengoba ukwenza kanjalo kuzonciphisa inzuzo yabo iyonke. Futhi njengoba isikhathi siyimali, sincane futhi isisusa sokusichitha siphenya noma sisungula izinto ezintsha.

Uma kubhekwa lo mkhawulo, ochwepheshe abaningi bezomthetho nezinkampani zomthetho manje sebefuna futhi baguqukele ekupheleni kwehora elikhokhiswayo, esikhundleni salo bafake uhlobo oluthile lwenani eliphansi ngesevisi ngayinye ehlinzekwayo. Lesi sakhiwo sokukhokha sigqugquzela ukuqamba okusha ngokwandisa inzuzo ngokusebenzisa izinto ezintsha zokonga isikhathi.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, laba chwepheshe bafuna ukuthi kushintshwe imodeli yobambiswano esabalele ngokuvuna ukufakwa. Nakuba esakhiweni sobambiswano, ukuqamba okusha kubonakala njengezindleko ezinkulu, zesikhashana ezithwalwa ozakwethu abakhulu benkampani yabameli, ukuhlanganiswa kuvumela inkampani yabameli ukuthi icabange isikhathi eside, kanye nokuyivumela ukuthi ihehe imali kubatshalizimali bangaphandle ngenxa yalokho. yokutshala imali kubuchwepheshe obusha.

Isikhathi eside, lezo zinkampani zezomthetho ezikwazi kangcono ukusungula nokunciphisa izindleko zazo kuzoba yizinkampani ezikwazi kangcono ukubamba isabelo semakethe, zikhule futhi zande.

Inkampani yabameli 2.0

Kunabantu abasha abazoncintisana abazodla umhlanganiso kule nkampani yabameli bendabuko futhi babizwa nge-Alternative Business Structures (ABSs). Izizwe ezifana ne UK, lo US, Canada, futhi i-Australia icubungula noma isivele ikugunyazile ukuba semthethweni kwama-ABS—uhlobo lokwesulwa komthetho oluvumela futhi olwenza kube lula ngezinkampani zomthetho ze-ABS ukuthi:

Iba ngowabantu abangebona abameli ngokwengxenye noma okuphelele;
Yamukela ukutshalwa kwezimali kwangaphandle;
Nikeza ngezinsizakalo ezingekho emthethweni; futhi
Nikeza ngezinsizakalo zomthetho ezizenzakalelayo.

Ama-ABS, kuhlanganiswe nezinto ezintsha zobuchwepheshe ezichazwe ngenhla, ivumela ukwanda kwezinhlobo ezintsha zezinkampani zomthetho.

Abameli abasafufusa, abasebenzisa ubuchwepheshe ukwenza ngokuzenzakalelayo imisebenzi yabo yokuphatha edla isikhathi kanye ne-e-discovery, manje sebengakwazi ukuqala amafemu abo omthetho we-niche ashibhile futhi kalula ukuze banikeze amakhasimende izinsiza zomthetho ezikhethekile. Okuthakazelisa nakakhulu, njengoba ubuchwepheshe buthatha imisebenzi eminingi yezomthetho, abameli babantu bangase baguqukele endimeni eyengeziwe yokuthuthukiswa kwebhizinisi/ukuhlola, bathole amaklayenti amasha ukuze azondle enkampanini yabo yabameli eya ngokuya izenzela.

Sekukonke, ngenkathi abameli njengomsebenzi bezohlala bedingeka esikhathini esizayo esibonakalayo, ikusasa lamafemu abameli liyoba elokuxutshwa nokutholwa okubukhali kwezobuchwepheshe bezomthetho kanye nesakhiwo sebhizinisi emisha, kanye nokwehla okubukhali ngokulinganayo kwesidingo sokusekelwa kwezomthetho. abasebenzi. Futhi nokho, ikusasa lomthetho nokuthi ubuchwepheshe buzowuphazamisa kanjani akugcini lapha. Esahlukweni sethu esilandelayo, sizohlola ukuthi ubuchwepheshe besikhathi esizayo bokufunda ingqondo buzozishintsha kanjani izinkantolo zethu nokuthi sizigweba kanjani izigebengu zesikhathi esizayo.