Amafutha aphezulu: Ukusetshenziswa kwamafutha esikhashana ukuze kukhuphuke futhi kufinyelele phezulu phakathi nekhulu leminyaka

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• August 3, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Uwoyela ophakeme, owake waba isexwayiso sokushoda kukawoyela, manje ubhekwa njengephuzu lapho isidingo sikawoyela sizokwehla ngenxa yeminye imithombo yamandla. Amafemu amakhulu kawoyela alungisa lolu shintsho ngokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela futhi ahlose ukukhipha i-net-zero, kuyilapho amanye amazwe ebona kusengaphambili isidingo sikawoyela esikhulayo kuze kube ngu-2030, okulandelwa ukwehla. Ukugudluka ku-oyela kuletha izinselele ezifana nokukhuphuka kwamanani okungenzeka emikhakheni ethembele kuwoyela kanye nesidingo sokuqeqeshwa kwemisebenzi emisha kanye nokugaywa kabusha okusebenzayo ezimbonini zamandla avuselelekayo.

Ingqikithi yamafutha aphezulu

Ngesikhathi sokushaqeka kukawoyela ngo-2007-8, abahlaziyi bezindaba kanye namandla baphinde bethula igama elithi uwoyela ophakeme emphakathini, bexwayisa ngesikhathi lapho isidingo sikawoyela sizodlula ukunikezwa, okuholela enkathini yokushoda kwamandla okungapheli kanye nokungqubuzana. Ukuwohloka okukhulu komnotho ngo-2008-9 kwafakazela kafushane lezi zixwayiso—okungukuthi, kwaze kwaba yilapho amanani kawoyela ehla ngawo-2010, ikakhulukazi ngo-2014. Kulezi zinsuku, uwoyela ophakeme uhlelwe kabusha njengosuku oluzayo lapho isidingo sikawoyela sikhuphuka futhi sehla kakhulu. ngenxa yokwanda kweminye imithombo yamandla.

NgoZibandlela wezi-2021, inkampani kawoyela negesi yama-Anglo-Dutch iShell yathi ilindele ukuthi uwoyela wayo wehle ngo-1 kuya ku-2% ngonyaka, njengoba ukhuphuke ngo-2019. NgoSepthemba 2018, inkampani yamemezela izinhlelo zokuba yinkampani ekhipha i-net-zero emissions ngo-2021, okuhlanganisa nekhabhoni ekhiqizwa ezimpahleni ezikhiphayo nezithengisayo. IBritish Petroleum kanye neTotal selokhu bajoyina iShell nezinye izinkampani zikawoyela negesi zaseYurophu ekuzibophezeleni ekushintsheleni kumandla aqhubekayo. Lezi zibopho zizoholela ekutheni lezi zinkampani zikhiphe izigidigidi zamadola kumafa, okugqugquzelwa ukuqagela ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke ngeke kubuyele emazingeni obhubhane angaphambi kwe-COVID-2050. Ngokwezibalo zakwaShell, ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela kule nkampani kungase kwehle ngamaphesenti angu-19 ngo-18 kanye namaphesenti angu-2030 ngo-45.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela waseChina kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokhuphuka phakathi kuka-2022 no-2030 ngenxa yesidingo esiqinile semboni yamakhemikhali namandla, sifinyelele inani eliphakeme cishe lamathani ayizigidi ezingu-780 ngonyaka ngo-2030. Kodwa-ke, ngokusho kwe-CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, isidingo sikawoyela sisonke. cishe izokwehla ngemuva kuka-2030 njengoba ukusetshenziswa kwezinto zokuhamba kwehla ngenxa yokwanda kokusetshenziswa kwezimoto zikagesi. Isidingo sikawoyela embonini yamakhemikhali kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale silingana phakathi nalesi sikhathi.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Ukususwa kancane kancane kukawoyela emnothweni womhlaba kanye namaketango okuhlinzekwa kwempahla kukhomba ukushintshela ezindleleni ezizinzile. Ngama-2030s, ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe bezokuthutha obuluhlaza njengezimoto zikagesi namafutha avuselelekayo, okuhlanganisa i-hydrogen eluhlaza, kulindeleke ukuthi kusheshiswe. Lezi zindlela zingase zingabizi kakhulu kunowoyela, zikhuthaze ukusetshenziswa okubanzi futhi zenze kube lula ukushintshela emithonjeni yamandla ehlanzekile.

Ukwanda kwesidingo samandla avuselelekayo kungase kukhuphule imikhakha, efana nekhebula kagesi nokugcinwa kwebhethri. Lokhu kukhula kungase kudale amathuba amasha emisebenzi futhi kukhuthaze imisebenzi yezomnotho kulezi zindawo. Nokho, kubalulekile ukuqinisekisa ukuthi abasebenzi baqeqeshwe ngokwanele futhi balungele lolu shintsho. Ukwengeza, ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kabusha okusebenzayo nezindlela zokulahla zamabhethri nezinye izingxenye zamandla avuselelekayo kungase kubaluleke kakhulu ukuze kulawuleke umthelela wazo kwezemvelo.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwehla okusheshayo kokusetshenziswa kukawoyela kungase kube nemiphumela engahlosiwe. Ukwehla kungazelelwe kokutholakala kukawoyela kungase kuholele ekwenyukeni kwamanani okubalulekile, kube nomthelela kumabhizinisi athembele kuwoyela, ikakhulukazi kwezokuthutha kanye nezolimo. Lokhu kungaholela ekwenyukeni kwezindleko zezimpahla ezithuthwayo kanye nemikhiqizo yezolimo, okungase kuholele emazingeni aphezulu endlala emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe emba eqolo. Ngakho-ke, uguquko oluhleliwe kahle noluhamba kancane kancane kude nowoyela lubalulekile ukuvumela isikhathi sokuthuthukiswa kweminye imithombo yamandla kanye nokujwayela amabhizinisi kuma-paradigms wamandla amasha.

Imiphumela yamafutha aphezulu

Imithelela ebanzi yokukhiqizwa kukawoyela engena ekwehleni ingase ihlanganise:

• Ukuncipha komonakalo wendawo kanye nesimo sezulu ngokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni.
• Amazwe ancike ekuthunyelweni kukawoyela negesi ngaphandle ahlangabezana nokwehla okukhulu kwemali engenayo, okungenzeka kuphoqe la mazwe ekuwohlokeni komnotho kanye nokuntengantenga kwezombusazwe.
• Amazwe anamandla amaningi okuvuna amandla elanga (isb., i-Morocco ne-Australia) angase abe abathekelisi bamandla aluhlaza kumandla elanga ne-hydrogen eluhlaza.
• Amazwe athuthukile ahoxisa umnotho wawo emazweni athumela amandla ngokuzenzakalelayo. Kwesinye isimo, lokhu kungase kuholele ezimpini ezimbalwa mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwamandla ngaphandle; esimweni esiphikisayo, lokhu kungase kuholele esandleni esikhululekile sokuthi izizwe zilwe izimpi ngemibono namalungelo abantu.
• Izigidigidi zezibonelelo zikahulumeni zamandla eziqondiswe ekukhishweni kwekhabhoni ziqondiswa kabusha kwingqalasizinda yamandla aluhlaza noma ezinhlelweni zomphakathi.
• Ukwanda kokwakhiwa kwezikhungo zamandla elanga nomoya ezifundeni ezisebenzayo kanye namagridi kazwelonke ashintshayo ukuze kusekelwe le mithombo yamandla.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Ingabe ohulumeni kufanele bavimbele ngokuphelele ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela emikhakheni ethile, noma kufanele uguquko lwemakethe yamahhala olubhekise kumandla avuselelekayo luvunyelwe luqhubeke ngokwemvelo, noma okuthile phakathi?
• Ukuncishiswa kokusetshenziswa kukawoyela kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwenye ezombusazwe nakwezomnotho zomhlaba?