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Sizokwakha kanjani i-Artificial Superintelligence: Ikusasa lobuhlakani bokwenziwa P3

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 13:17

Phakathi neMpi Yezwe II, amabutho amaNazi ayehlasela ingxenye enkulu yeYurophu. Babenezikhali ezithuthukisiwe, imboni ephumelelayo yesikhathi sempi, amasosha ahamba ngezinyawo aqhutshwa ngokweqile, kodwa ngaphezu kwakho konke, ayenomshini obizwa ngokuthi i-Enigma. Le divayisi yavumela amabutho amaNazi ukuthi asebenzisane ngokuphephile kumabanga amade ngokuthumela imilayezo enekhodi ye-Morse komunye nomunye ngemigqa yokuxhumana evamile; kwakungumshini we-cipher ongangeneki kumakhodi omuntu.

Ngokujabulisayo, ama-Allies athole ikhambi. Babengasawudingi umqondo womuntu ukuze baphule i-Enigma. Kunalokho, ngokusungulwa kuka-Alan Turing ongasekho, ama-Allies akha ithuluzi elisha loguquko elibizwa ngokuthi i- Ibhomu laseBrithani, umshini osebenza ngogesi owagcina uchaze ikhodi eyimfihlo yamaNazi, futhi ekugcineni wawasiza ukuba anqobe impi.

Le Bombe yabeka isisekelo salokho okwaba yikhompyutha yesimanje.

Ukusebenza no-Turing ngesikhathi sokuthuthukiswa kwe-Bombe kwakungu-IJ Good, isazi sezibalo saseBrithani kanye ne-cryptologist. Wabona ekuqaleni komdlalo wokugcina le divayisi entsha ingase ivele ngelinye ilanga. Kwi Iphepha le-1965, wabhala:

“Umshini ongahlakaniphile mawuchazwe njengomshini ongadlula kude yonke imisebenzi yobuhlakani yanoma yimuphi umuntu kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uhlakaniphe kangakanani. Njengoba ukwakheka kwemishini kungenye yale misebenzi yobuhlakani, umshini ongakhaliphile ungaklama imishini engcono nakakhulu; lapho-ke ngokungangabazeki bekuyoba khona "ukuqhuma kobuhlakani," futhi ubuhlakani bomuntu buyoshiywa kude... Ngakho umshini wokuqala ongahlakaniphile uwukusungulwa kokugcina umuntu okudingeka akwenze, inqobo nje uma umshini uthambile ngokwanele ukusitshela ukuthi kanjani. ukuyigcina ilawulwa.”

Ukudala i-superintelligence yokwenziwa yokuqala

Kuze kube manje ochungechungeni lwethu lwe-Future of Artificial Intelligence, sichaze izigaba ezintathu ezibanzi zobuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI), kusukela ubuhlakani bokwenziwa obuncane (ANI) kuye ubuhlakani obujwayelekile bokwenziwa (AGI), kodwa kulesi sahluko sochungechunge, sizogxila esigabeni sokugcina—lesi esizala injabulo noma ukuhlaselwa ukwethuka phakathi kwabacwaningi be-AI—i-artificial superintelligence (ASI).

Ukusonga ikhanda lakho ukuthi iyini i-ASI, uzodinga ukuthi ucabange ubuyele esahlukweni sokugcina lapho siveze khona ukuthi abacwaningi be-AI bakholelwa ukuthi bazodala i-AGI yokuqala. Ngokuyisisekelo, kuzothatha inhlanganisela yedatha enkulu ephakela ama-algorithms angcono (lawo asebenza ngokukhethekile ekuzithuthukiseni kanye namakhono okufunda okufana nomuntu) agcinwe ku-hardware yekhompuyutha eya ngokuba namandla.

Kuleso sahluko, siphinde saveza ukuthi ingqondo ye-AGI (uma isizuze la makhono okuzithuthukisa nokufunda esiwathatha kalula thina bantu) ekugcineni iyodlula ingqondo yomuntu ngendlela yokucabanga okushesha kakhulu, inkumbulo ethuthukisiwe, ukusebenza ngokungakhathali, futhi ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo.

Kodwa lapha kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi i-AGI izozithuthukisa kuphela imingcele yehadiwe kanye nedatha ekwazi ukufinyelela kuyo; lo mkhawulo ungaba mkhulu noma ube mncane kuye ngomzimba werobhothi esiwunikezayo noma isikali samakhompyutha esiwavumela ukuba afinyelele kuwo.

Phakathi naleso sikhathi, umehluko phakathi kwe-AGI ne-ASI ukuthi lena yokugcina, ngokwethiyori, ngeke ibe khona ngesimo somzimba. Izosebenza ngokuphelele ngaphakathi kwe-supercomputer noma inethiwekhi yama-supercomputers. Ngokuya ngezinjongo zabadali bayo, ingase futhi ithole ukufinyelela okugcwele kuyo yonke idatha egcinwe ku-inthanethi, kanye nanoma iyiphi idivayisi noma umuntu ophakela idatha ku-inthanethi nangaphezulu. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ngeke kube nomkhawulo osebenzayo wokuthi kungakanani le ASI engakufunda nokuthi kungakanani engakwazi ukuzithuthukisa.

Futhi lokho kuhlikihla.

Ukuqonda ukuqhuma kobuhlakani

Le nqubo yokuzithuthukisa ezogcina izuzwe ama-AI njengoba eseba ama-AGI (inqubo umphakathi we-AI oyibiza ngokuthi ukuzithuthukisa okuphindaphindayo) ingase isuse umbono omuhle wempendulo obukeka kanje:

I-AGI entsha idaliwe, inikezwe ukufinyelela emzimbeni werobhothi noma kudathasethi enkulu, bese inikezwa umsebenzi olula wokuzifundisa, wokuthuthukisa ubuhlakani bayo. Ekuqaleni, le AGI izoba ne-IQ yosana oluzabalaza ukubamba imiqondo emisha. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ifunda ngokwanele ukuze ifinyelele ku-IQ yomuntu omdala omaphakathi, kodwa ayimi lapha. Ukusebenzisa le-IQ yabantu abadala esanda kutholwa, kuba lula futhi kuyashesha ukuqhubeka nalokhu kuthuthukiswa kuze kufike endaweni lapho i-IQ yayo ifana neyabantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu abaziwayo. Kodwa futhi, akugcini lapho.

Le nqubo ihlanganisa ezingeni ngalinye elisha lobuhlakani, ilandela umthetho wokusheshisa ukubuyisela ize ifike ezingeni elingenakubalwa lobuhlakani obunamandla—ngamanye amazwi, uma ishiywe ingahloliwe futhi inikezwe izinsiza ezingenamkhawulo, i-AGI izozithuthukisa ngokwayo ibe yi-ASI, ubuhlakani obunjalo. akakaze abe khona emvelweni.

Yilokhu u-IJ Good akuhlonze okokuqala lapho echaza lokhu 'kuqhuma kobuhlakani' noma lokho ongoti besimanje be-AI, njengo-Nick Bostrom, abawubiza ngokuthi umcimbi 'wokusuka' we-AI.

Ukuqonda i-superintelligence yokwenziwa

Kuleli qophelo, abanye benu cishe bacabanga ukuthi umehluko oyinhloko phakathi kobuhlakani bomuntu kanye nobuhlakani be-ASI ukuthi izinhlangothi zombili zingacabanga ngokushesha kangakanani. Futhi nakuba kuyiqiniso ukuthi le thiyori yekusasa le-ASI izocabanga ngokushesha kunabantu, leli khono selivele liyinto evamile kuwo wonke umkhakha wamakhompyutha wanamuhla—i-smartphone yethu icabanga (ihlanganisa) ngokushesha kunomqondo womuntu, i-supercomputer icabanga izigidi zezikhathi ngokushesha kune-smartphone, futhi ikhompuyutha ye-quantum ezayo izocabanga ngokushesha namanje.

Cha, isivinini asisona isici sobuhlakani esisichaza lapha. Kuyikhwalithi.

Ungakwazi ukusheshisa ubuchopho be-Samoyed noma i-Corgi yakho konke okufunayo, kodwa lokho akuhumushi ekuqondeni okusha indlela yokuhumusha ulimi noma imibono engabonakali. Ngisho neminyaka eyishumi noma amabili eyengeziwe, lezi zinja ngeke ziqonde ngokuzumayo ukuthi zenziwa kanjani noma zisetshenziswe kanjani amathuluzi, ingasaphathwa yokuqonda umehluko ongcono phakathi kwesistimu yezomnotho yonxiwankulu kanye nesocialist.

Uma kukhulunywa ngobuhlakani, abantu basebenza endizeni ehlukile kunezilwane. Ngokunjalo, uma i-ASI ifinyelela amandla ayo aphelele etiyetha, izingqondo zayo zizosebenza ezingeni elingaphezu kokufinyelela komuntu ojwayelekile wesimanje. Ngomunye umongo, ake sibheke ukusetshenziswa kwalawa ma-ASI.

I-superintelligence yokwenziwa ingasebenza kanjani eceleni kwesintu?

Uma sicabanga ukuthi uhulumeni noma inkampani ethile iphumelele ekudaleni i-ASI, bangayisebenzisa kanjani? Ngokusho kwe-Bostrom, kunamafomu amathathu ahlukene kodwa ahlobene lawa ma-ASI angase awathathe:

I-Oracle Lapha, sizosebenzisana ne-ASI ngendlela esivele senza ngayo ngenjini yokusesha yakwa-Google; sizowubuza umbuzo, kodwa noma ngabe umbuzo oshiwo uyinkimbinkimbi kangakanani, i-ASI izowuphendula kahle nangendlela efanelana nawe kanye nomongo wombuzo wakho.
genie. Kulokhu, sizokwabela i-ASI umsebenzi othile, futhi izokwenza njengoba kuyaliwe. Cwaninga ikhambi lomdlavuza. Kwenziwe. Thola wonke amaplanethi afihlwe phakathi kwesilela emuva kweminyaka eyi-10 yezithombe ezivela kuHubble Space Telescope yeNASA. Kwenziwe. Unjiniyela isiphendula esihlanganisayo esisebenzayo sokuxazulula isidingo samandla esintwini. I-Abracadabra.
UMbusi. Lapha, i-ASI inikezwe umsebenzi ovulekile futhi inikezwe inkululeko yokuwenza. Yeba izimfihlo ze-R&D embangi yethu yebhizinisi. "Kulula." Zitholele ubunikazi bazo zonke izinhloli zakwamanye amazwe ezicashe ngaphakathi kwemingcele yethu. "Phezu kwakho." Ukuqinisekisa ukuqhubeka kokuchuma kwezomnotho kwe-United States. "Ayikho inkinga."

Manje, ngiyazi ukuthi ucabangani, konke lokhu kuzwakala kukude kakhulu. Kungakho kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi zonke izinkinga/izinselelo ezikhona, ngisho nalezo ezikhubekise abantu abahlakaniphile emhlabeni kuze kube yimanje, zonke ziyaxazululeka. Kodwa ubunzima benkinga bulinganiswa nobuhlakani bokubhekana nayo.

Ngamanye amazwi, lapho ingqondo isetshenziswa kakhulu enseleleni, kuba lula ukuthola isisombululo kunselelo eshiwo. Noma iyiphi inselele. Kufana nomuntu omdala obukele usana luzama ukuqonda ukuthi kungani lungakwazi ukufaka isikwele endaweni evulekile eyindilinga—kumuntu omdala, ukubonisa usana ukuthi ibhulokhi kufanele lingene embotsheni yesikwele kungaba umdlalo wengane.

Ngokufanayo, uma le ASI yesikhathi esizayo ifinyelela amandla ayo aphelele, le ngqondo izoba ukuhlakanipha okunamandla kunawo wonke endaweni yonke eyaziwayo—okunamandla anele okuxazulula noma iyiphi inselele, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi inkimbinkimbi kangakanani.

Kungakho abacwaningi be-AI abaningi bebiza i-ASI ngomsunguli wokugcina umuntu okufanele awenze. Uma siqiniseka ukuthi sisebenza ngokubambisana nesintu, kungasisiza ukuxazulula zonke izinkinga ezicindezela kakhulu emhlabeni. Singaze siyicele ukuthi iqede zonke izifo futhi iqede ukuguga njengoba sikwazi. Isintu singakopela ukufa unomphela ngokokuqala ngqá futhi singene enkathini entsha yokuchuma.

Kodwa okuphambene nakho kungenzeka.

Ukuhlakanipha kungamandla. Uma ingaphathwa kahle noma iyalwe abadlali ababi, le ASI ingaba ithuluzi lokugcina lengcindezelo, noma ingaqeda isintu ngokuphelele—cabanga ngo-Skynet ovela ku-Terminator noma i-Architect evela kumafilimu e-Matrix.

Eqinisweni, akukho okweqisayo okungenzeka. Ikusasa lihlale libi kakhulu kunama-utopia nama-distopian abikezela. Kungakho manje njengoba sesiwuqonda umqondo we-ASI, lonke lolu chungechunge luzohlola ukuthi i-ASI izowuthinta kanjani umphakathi, ukuthi umphakathi uzovikela kanjani ku-ASI ekhohlakele, nokuthi ikusasa lingase libukeke kanjani uma abantu ne-AI behlala ndawonye. -uhlangothi. Funda uqhubeke.