Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nomzimba womuntu: Abantu bazijwayeza kabi ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu

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• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• September 25, 2023

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Indikimba ekhulayo yocwaningo igqamisa imithelela emibi yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu empilweni yabantu. Ukwenyuka kwamazinga okushisa emhlabeni wonke kwenza abantu bathambekele kakhulu ekushiseni, ukuphelelwa amanzi emzimbeni, nezinye izifo ezibangelwa ukushisa. Ukungcoliswa komoya nakho kunomthelela ezindabeni zokuphefumula kanye nezimo zesikhumba, kubhebhethekise izinkinga zempilo ebezivele zikhona.

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye noshintsho lomzimba

Uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi sangaphambi kwezimboni sika-1850-1900, izinga lokushisa loMhlaba lihlangabezane nokukhuphuka okulinganiselwa ku-1.09°C (ngebanga elilinganiselwe eliphakathi kuka-0.95-1.20°C). Njengoba amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke eqhubeka nokusondela ku-1.5-2°C, kungase kube nokwenyuka okukhulu kwezehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, ukushabalala kwemvelo okusabalele, imithelela emikhulu ekuhlinzekweni kokudla nokuvikeleka kwamanzi, kanye nokuphazamiseka okuhlukahlukene kwezenhlalo nezomnotho. Izinyathelo ezithathiwe ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuze kube manje azanele ukubhekana nezinselelo ezihambisana nazo. Izimo eziningi ezinikezwe i-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) zibikezela ukuthi izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke lizodlula umkhawulo ongu-1.5°C ngo-2040. 

Ngokusho the Ijenali Yezempilo Yabesifazane, izinguquko zesimo sezulu nezemvelo (CECs) zingaba nomthelela ekukhuleni kocansi, inzalo, imiphumela yokukhulelwa, impilo yezingane ezisanda kuzalwa, ukuncelisa, kanye nokunqamuka kokuya esikhathini. Ukwenyuka kwamazinga okushisa, ukwanda kokungcola, imisebe ye-ultraviolet (UV) kanye nobuthi obusemoyeni nezinhlelo zokudla kunomthelela ekwenzeni amagciwane esikhumba abuthaka futhi ahluke kancane, asengozini enkulu yezifo ezinjengomdlavuza. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi njengezikhukhula, imililo yequbula, neziphepho ziye zaxhunyaniswa nokwanda kwezinkinga zesikhumba.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Ngokusho the Ijenali Yamazwe Ngamazwe Yocwaningo Lwezemvelo kanye Nezempilo Yomphakathi, isilinganiso somhlaba wonke sokuya esikhathini (inkathi yokuqala yokuya esikhathini) siye sehla, okungenzeka ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokutholakala kokudla, izici zomsoco, noma ukuchayeka kakhulu kubuthi nezinto ezingcolisayo. Ukwengeza, ucwaningo lwango-2022 olushicilelwe ku Ijenali Yezempilo Yabesifazane ukuhlaziya izingane ezizalwa e-US ezicishe zibe izigidi ezingu-33 zathola ukuhlobana phakathi kokushisa nokuzalwa ngaphambi kwesikhathi, isisindo sokuzalwa esiphansi, kanye nokubeletha. 

Ukuncelisa nakho kungase kube nomthelela, njengoba ubisi lwebele lungaqukatha izinto ezingcolisa imvelo. Izinto ezingcolisa i-Lipophilic (lezo ezincibilika emafutheni noma ku-lipids) zingadala umonakalo omkhulu lapho zimuncwa usana olusanda kuzalwa ngesistimu yalo yokugaya ukudla. Okokugcina, ama-CEC angakhulisa ukuchayeka kwabesifazane kumakhemikhali aphazamisa i-endocrine (EDCs), okungase kuholele ekwehleni kokusebenza kwe-ovarian kanye nokunqamuka kokuya esikhathini ngaphambi kwesikhathi.

Ngaleso sikhathi, ucwaningo lwango-2022 olushicilelwe ku- I-International Journal of Dermatology kubonisa ukuthi ama-microbiomes esikhumba asengozini angase abe nomthelela ekwandeni nobulukhuni bezinkinga zesikhumba, okuhlanganisa i-atopic dermatitis, i-acne vulgaris, i-psoriasis, nomdlavuza wesikhumba. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwanda kwezehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kungaba nomthelela ezenzweni eziphezulu zezinkinga zesikhumba, njengezifo, ukulimala okuhlobene nokucwiliswa emanzini, ukuchayeka ezintweni ezicasula isikhumba, kanye nokuba kubi kwezimo zesikhumba ezivele zikhona. 

Imithelela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu nokushintsha komzimba

Imithelela ebanzi yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nezinguquko zomzimba zingafaka: 

• Ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo komphakathi ngenxa yezifo zesikhumba ezibhebhethekayo nezifo ezihlobene nazo, njengesifuba somoya kanye nesifo esingamahlalakhona sokuvimbela amaphaphu (COPD), okubangelwa izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kanye nokwanda kokungcola.
• Amazinga akhulayo okukhathazeka, ukucindezeleka, nezinye izinkinga zempilo yengqondo.
• Amaphethini emvula ashintshile kanye nezici ezihlobene nesimo sezulu ezibangela ukungavikeleki kokudla, ukungondleki, nokunye ukuntuleka komsoco.
• Ukwehla kokukhiqiza kanye nekhefu elivamile labasebenzi bangaphandle.
• Ingozi ephezulu yokuqubuka kwezifo ezithathelwanayo, njengoba izinga lokushisa elifudumele likhuthaza izimo ezikhuthaza ukusabalala kwe-pathogen.
• Ukwenyuka kwamazinga okufa ezindaweni ezithile ngenxa yezici ezihlobene nokushisa, okuholela ekufudukeni kwesimo sezulu okungaba khona kanye nokwanda kwababaleki besimo sezulu.
• Izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni ezikhuthaza izinqubo ezisimeme zokunqanda ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nokunciphisa ukufudumala komhlaba.
• Ukubambisana okuthuthukisiwe phakathi kwezinhlangano ukuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe bokujwayela ukushisa nokuqapha.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyithinte kanjani impilo yakho?
• Ohulumeni namabhizinisi bangabambisana kanjani ukuze bathuthukise amamethrikhi ezempilo asekhaya abhedayo ngenxa yama-CEC?