Free public transportation: Is there really freedom in free rides?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 15, 2021

Cities worldwide are embracing free public transportation, a move that not only boosts social mobility and local economies but also paves the way for environmental sustainability. However, this transition comes with challenges, including the need for modernization of public transportation systems and potential strain on public finances. Despite these hurdles, the long-term implications, such as increased social inclusivity, economic growth, and technological advancements, make it a trend worth exploring.

Free public transportation context

Estonia made a significant stride in public transportation policy back in 2013. It became the first city within the European Union (EU) to offer free rides on buses, trams, and trolleys to its residents. This policy, according to city officials, has had a profound impact on social mobility, particularly for the elderly population. It has also stimulated local economies by encouraging residents to venture out during evenings and weekends, leading to an annual revenue increase of approximately USD $22.7 million.

In 2019, Kansas City in the US state of Missouri followed Estonia's footsteps, marking the first instance of a major US city implementing free public transport. The primary motivation behind this move was to enhance the quality of life for its residents, especially those in the low-income bracket. By removing the financial barrier to public transportation, these residents gained improved access to employment opportunities and healthcare services, crucial components for social and economic stability.

On the other side of the globe, Hwaseong City in South Korea has taken the concept of free public transportation and added an environmental twist. In 2021, they announced plans to offer free rides to the youth and the elderly. In addition, they aim to transition their entire bus fleet to models that are both carbon-neutral and autonomous by 2030. This move also takes into account the pressing issue of environmental sustainability and the potential of autonomous technology.

Disruptive impact

By facilitating the freer movement of residents, cities can stimulate local sectors, such as entertainment, healthcare, and business. For instance, individuals may be more inclined to explore local attractions or patronize businesses they would otherwise overlook due to transportation costs. This development could lead to a more vibrant local economy and a greater sense of community among residents.

However, the transition to free public transportation is not without its challenges. For one, public transportation systems would need to undergo significant modernization and organization to persuade individuals to abandon their personal vehicles. This process could involve the integration of advanced technologies, such as real-time tracking and route optimization, to improve the efficiency and reliability of these systems. Additionally, cities may need to invest in infrastructure upgrades, such as expanding routes or increasing the frequency of service, to accommodate an expected increase in ridership.

The application of free public transportation schemes in megacities, such as New York, presents additional challenges. In these cities, fare evasion is a significant issue, with law enforcement officers tasked with patrolling public transportation systems to deter and apprehend fare evaders. Transitioning to a free fare model could alleviate this issue, but it could also require a re-evaluation of law enforcement roles and responsibilities within the public transportation system. Furthermore, the sheer scale and complexity of public transportation in megacities require careful planning and significant resources to ensure a smooth transition to a free fare model.

Implications of free public transportation

Wider implications of free public transportation may include:

• Overcrowded buses and trains, which could lead to buying additional public transportation vehicles and building additional public infrastructure.
• Increased demand for electric buses and trains that are carbon-neutral and autonomous.
• Increased city tax revenues from the forecasted boost to local economic activity—tax revenues that could further fund and maintain free public transportation projects.
• An increase in social inclusivity, as free public transportation allows all residents, regardless of income level, to access essential services and opportunities, fostering a more equitable society.
• A boost in local economies, as residents, free from the burden of transportation costs, have more disposable income to spend on local goods and services.
• The acceleration of technological advancements in public transportation, as the demand for efficient and reliable services grows, spurring the development of technologies such as autonomous vehicles.
• A potential strain on public finances, as governments need to find alternative sources of revenue to maintain and improve public transportation infrastructure and services in the absence of fare income.
• A shift in labor market dynamics, as the demand for public transportation workers may increase to manage the expanded services, while jobs related to private vehicle use, such as parking attendants or gas station employees, may decrease.
• An increase in urban congestion and wear and tear on public transportation infrastructure, as more people opt to use free services, leading to increased maintenance requirements.

Questions to consider

• Do you think free public transportation can result in increased economic activity in your home city?
• Would you rather pay for transport rather than have your taxes increased?