Government family planning: The race to reverse population decline

• Author:
• Author name

  Quantumrun Foresight
• March 30, 2023

Experts predict that the global population rate will decrease in the coming decades, with declining fertility rates and an aging population being key contributing factors. In response, many governments have implemented pro-family policies such as parental leave, child allowances, and tax breaks to incentivize citizens to have more children. However, it remains to be seen whether these measures will be enough to reverse the trend of declining population growth.

Government family planning context

According to research published in the medical journal The Lancet, around 23 countries can have up to a 50 percent population decrease due to low births and an aging citizenry. Even China, the country with the highest global population, is not immune to this trend. Despite calls to lower the legal marrying age of 22 for men and 20 for women, experts believe this alone will not be enough to address the underlying socio-economic and cultural factors driving the decline. As Chinese citizens prioritize work and personal goals over starting a family, the country's population continues to shrink.

Hungary is another country that has been experiencing a consistent decline in population for the past 40 years. The Hungarian government has implemented various pro-natalist policies and subsidies to encourage citizens to have more children. For example, they have introduced tax cuts for every child born, longer maternity and paternity leaves, and other financial incentives for families with children. However, despite these efforts, the country's population continues to shrink.

The reasons behind Hungary's population decline are complex and multifaceted. In addition to low birth rates, many young people are leaving the country searching for better job opportunities and a higher quality of life. Some experts also argue that Hungary's political climate and anti-immigrant policies may worsen the population decline as the country's population becomes increasingly resistant to diversity. Overall, the challenge of reversing population decline is complex and requires a multifaceted approach.

Disruptive impact

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened the situation for many countries experiencing declining population growth as global deaths from the disease surged. As such, governments will likely intensify their pro-natalist policies. In Hungary, the government responded by increasing its budget for family support to 5.2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021. This move is part of a broader strategy to encourage citizens to reproduce, including promoting immigration from ethnic Hungarian groups in neighboring countries.

However, some critics have argued that these policies only benefit middle- and upper-middle-class women while neglecting the needs of the more vulnerable groups, such as teenage pregnancies in segregated Romani settlements. Despite the government's efforts, the population decline in Hungary continues to be a pressing issue. 

Meanwhile, Iran—facing a significant demographic challenge—took a concerning approach to promoting childbirth by discontinuing the availability of contraceptives and vasectomies in public hospitals (2020). However, this move raised concerns among rights groups and public health officials who argue that it takes away women's freedom to decide what to do with their bodies and could lead to increased cases of sexually transmitted diseases.

Implications of government family planning

Wider implications of modern government family planning programs may include:

• Governments increasing their budgets for education and cost of living subsidies to encourage large families.


• Increasing support and programs for single women who want to raise children by themselves or through medical interventions.


• Tension (in select countries) between some government programs and rights groups regarding women’s reproductive rights.


• More countries attempting to attract migrants and digital nomads to become permanent residents and establish families.


• Rising rent prices and lack of housing in megacities and surrounding neighborhoods.


• A greater demand for labor in industries that support families, such as childcare, education, and healthcare. 


• The increased adoption of better pro-family labor policies, such as extended parental leaves and childcare subsidies.


• New technological solutions, particularly in areas related to child and elderly care.

Questions to consider

• Is your country struggling with an aging population? If so, how is it impacting the local economy?


• How else can governments encourage population growth?