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Companies belonging to the motor vehicles & parts sector will be affected directly and indirectly by a number of disruptive opportunities and challenges that will jeopardize their corporate longevity over the coming decades. While described in detail within Quantumrun’s special reports, these disruptive trends can be summarized along the following broad points:
- First off, the plummeting cost of solid-state batteries and renewables, the data crunching power of artificial intelligence (AI), the increasing penetration of high-speed broadband, and the falling cultural attraction to car ownership among millennials and Gen Zs will lead to tectonic changes in the motor vehicle industry.
- The first giant shift will arrive when the price tag for an average electric vehicle (EV) reaches parity with an average gasoline vehicle by 2022. Once this happens, EVs will take off—consumers will find them cheaper to run and maintain. This is because electricity is usually cheaper than gas and because EVs contain significantly less moving parts than gasoline-powered vehicles, resulting in less strain on internal mechanisms. As these EVs grow in market share, vehicle manufacturers will shift most-to-all of their business to EV production.
- Similar to the rise of EVs, autonomous vehicles (AV) are projected to attain human levels of driving capability by 2022. Over the following decade, car manufacturers will transition into mobility service companies, operating massive fleets of AVs for use in automated ride-sharing services—direct competition with services like Uber and Lyft. However, this shift toward ridesharing will lead to significant reductions in private car ownership and sales. (The luxury car market will remain largely unaffected by these trends until the late 2030s.)
- The two trends listed above will result in the reduced volume of vehicle parts sales, negatively impacting vehicle parts manufacturers, making them vulnerable to future corporate acquisitions.
- Moreover, the 2020s will see increasingly devastating weather events that will further drive environmental awareness among the general population. This cultural shift will lead voters to pressure their politicians to support greener policy initiatives, including incentives to purchase EV/AVs over traditional gasoline powered cars.
These broad trends will have far-reaching effects on the motor vehicles & parts sector that will influence the sector’s long-term development.
To stay informed about these and other trends, as well as the emerging opportunities and threats facing the motor vehicles & parts sector, consider investing in Quantumrun Foresight sector forecast reports. Contact us today to learn more.
