Arctic diseases: Viruses and bacteria lie in wait as ice thaws

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• January 9, 2022

Insight summary

As the world grappled with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, an unusual heatwave in Siberia was causing the permafrost to thaw, releasing ancient viruses and bacteria trapped within. This phenomenon, coupled with increased human activity in the Arctic and altered wildlife migratory patterns due to climate change, has raised concerns about the potential for new disease outbreaks. The implications of these Arctic diseases are far-reaching, affecting healthcare costs, technological development, labor markets, environmental research, political dynamics, and societal behaviors.

Arctic diseases context

In the early days of March 2020, as the globe was bracing for widespread lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a distinct climatic event was unfolding in northeastern Siberia. This remote region was grappling with an extraordinary heatwave, with temperatures soaring to an unheard-of 45 degrees Celsius. A team of scientists, observing this unusual weather pattern, linked the occurrence to the broader issue of climate change. They organized a seminar to discuss the potential hazards associated with the thawing of permafrost, a phenomenon that was becoming increasingly prevalent in these regions.

Permafrost is any organic material, be it sand, minerals, rocks, or soil, that has remained frozen at or below 0 degrees Celsius for a minimum of two years. This frozen layer, often several meters deep, acts as a natural storage unit, preserving everything within it in a state of suspended animation. However, with the rising global temperatures, this permafrost has been gradually melting from the top down. This melting process, which has been occurring for the past two decades, has the potential to release the trapped contents of the permafrost into the environment.

Among the contents of the permafrost are ancient viruses and bacteria, which have been imprisoned in the ice for thousands, if not millions, of years. These microorganisms, once released into the air, could potentially find a host and reanimate. Virologists, who study these ancient pathogens, have confirmed this possibility. The release of these ancient viruses and bacteria could have significant implications for global health, potentially leading to the emergence of diseases that modern medicine has never encountered before. 

Disruptive impact

The resurrection of a 30,000-year-old DNA-based virus from permafrost by virologists from Aix-Marseille University in France has raised concerns about the potential for future pandemics originating from the Arctic. While viruses require living hosts to survive and the Arctic is sparsely populated, the region is seeing an increase in human activity. Town-sized populations are moving into the area, primarily for the extraction of oil and gas. 

Climate change is not only affecting human populations but also altering the migratory patterns of birds and fish. As these species move into new territories, they may come into contact with pathogens released from the permafrost. This trend increases the risk of zoonotic illnesses, which can be transmitted from animals to humans. One such disease that has already shown its potential for harm is Anthrax, caused by bacteria naturally found in soil. An outbreak in 2016 resulted in the death of Siberian reindeers and infected a dozen people.

While scientists currently believe that another outbreak of Anthrax is unlikely, the continued rise in global temperatures could increase the risk of future outbreaks. For companies involved in Arctic oil and gas extraction, this might mean implementing stricter health and safety protocols. For governments, it could involve investing in research to better understand these ancient pathogens and developing strategies to mitigate their potential impact. 

Implications of arctic diseases

Wider implications of Arctic diseases may include:

• An increased risk of animal-to-human viral transmission stemming from wildlife that populate Arctic regions. The potential of these viruses to turn into global pandemics is unknown.


• Increased investments in vaccine studies and government-backed scientific monitoring of arctic environments.


• The emergence of Arctic diseases could lead to increased healthcare costs, straining national budgets and potentially leading to higher taxes or reduced spending in other areas.


• The potential for new pandemics could drive the development of new technologies for disease detection and management, leading to the growth of the biotech industry.


• Disease outbreaks in areas involved in oil and gas extraction leading to labor shortages in these industries, impacting energy production and prices.


• Increased investment in environmental research and conservation efforts as understanding and mitigating these risks becomes a priority.


• Political tension as countries debate responsibility for addressing these risks and the costs associated with them.


• People becoming more cautious about travel or outdoor activities in the Arctic, impacting industries such as tourism and recreation.


• Increased public awareness and concern about climate change-induced diseases, driving demand for more sustainable practices in all sectors of society.

Questions to consider

• How do you think governments should prepare for future pandemics?


• How can the threat of viruses escaping the permafrost influence global climate emergency efforts?