Autonomous last mile delivery: Can robots deliver goods faster?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• August 29, 2022

Insight summary

The surge in online shopping due to the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased parcel deliveries and e-commerce, challenging the logistics industry to enhance delivery efficiency. To bridge this gap, companies are investing in autonomous vehicles (AVs) like drones and self-driving trucks, which are environmentally friendly and cut down on labor costs. However, the widespread adoption of these AVs faces hurdles like the need for new legislation, safety considerations, and the integration of these vehicles into existing infrastructure and daily life.

Autonomous last mile delivery context

In 2020, parcel deliveries worldwide increased by 17.5 percent as people turned to online shopping during pandemic lockdowns, according to the World Economic Forum. In addition, e-commerce grew by 27.6 percent in 2020, accounting for 18 percent of the global retail industry. This rapid growth put more pressure on the logistics industry to meet customer demand, particularly faster last-mile deliveries. Unfortunately, during this same period, the transportation and logistics industries faced severe challenges, including an ongoing and increasing truck driver shortage and a disrupted global supply chain.

To address this gap between market demand and supply chain capability, logistics companies across the developed world are investing heavily in AVs, including trucks, drones, and sidewalk robots. The US is taking the lead in automotive electrification for last-mile deliveries, with companies like Starship Technologies and Nuro building self-driving models. Meanwhile, cities in China, like Beijing and Shenzhen, are conducting trial runs of AVs on open public roads.

One of the key benefits of autonomous last-mile delivery (ALMD) is its environmental impact. Autonomous last-mile vehicles (ALMVs) don’t use fossil fuels (assuming they are charged with electricity from renewable sources), which means reduced greenhouse gas emissions. ALMVs’ intelligent driving features also constantly collect real-time data, allowing them to predict traffic conditions and the best routes to take during certain hours. ALMVs can also help companies save on labor costs by reducing the need for additional human drivers. In addition, since these machines are equipped with predictive maintenance analytics, firms can monitor their usage and proactively schedule their upkeep accordingly to eliminate downtimes that cause delays. These AVs can also keep operating 24/7, which ensures continuous fulfillment of timely deliveries.

Disruptive impact

The first step in making autonomous last-mile delivery a success is legislation. There are various ways to categorize AVs: people-carriers or goods-carriers; operating on public roads or private property; high-speed or low-speed, and so on. But which type of regulations should apply to the ALMV? Is it a car, a non-motor vehicle, a personal delivery device, or a robot?

The answer determines which lane these machines are allowed to operate in or if they will be permitted to go faster on roadways and share lanes with cars. On sidewalks and sidestreets, the permitted speeds are generally much lower, but there are more potential accidents involving pedestrians. Discussions about how to categorize ALMVs are ongoing among stakeholders to establish a new category for them.

Furthermore, policymakers and enterprises must collaborate to create a supportive environment for innovation and technological breakthroughs. ALMVs can potentially enable new business models, user scenarios, and lifestyles; they are also crucial in society’s future transition to decarbonization and digitalization. However, challenges remain. For example, applying intelligent driving on small, flexible devices and vehicles requires imaginative solutions. Another challenge is how will ALMVs deliver parcels to doorsteps where stairs are involved, as well as ensuring safety when pedestrians and cyclists share public spaces with low-speed ALMVs.

Implications of autonomous last mile delivery

Wider implications of ALMD may include: 

• The increasing use of drones to deliver parcels faster in remote areas, particularly mountainous regions and islands. However, these drones might be restricted by airspace regulations.


• More startups investing in autonomous delivery vehicles, particularly small, re-programmable robots.


• Global regulations on monitoring and governing ALMVs, including insurance policies for accidents caused by these machines.


• Investments in safety and security measures for these devices to ensure that parcels are not tampered with or stolen.


• Truck drivers being re-trained for machine maintenance roles as ALMVs replace human drivers.


• Dedicated infrastructure being built for various forms of ALMVs, such as separate lanes or entire roads/highways for autonomous vehicles, as well as dedicated airspace for drones to fly safely.


• The use of ALMVs in retail by converting them into multi-purpose tools like display areas or a “store on the move” in communities and tourist spots.

Questions to consider

• Have you received any delivery via drone or robot?


• How else can companies and governments ensure that ALMVs are successfully integrated into busy streets?