Climate change refugees: Climate-fueled human migrations may increase dramatically

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• October 18, 2022

Insight summary

Climate change is causing millions globally to leave their homes, searching for stable living conditions due to extreme weather events like floods and droughts. This mass displacement, notably in Asia, creates a surge in climate refugees, challenging countries to adapt their immigration policies and aid efforts. The situation is exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and human rights concerns, emphasizing the urgent need for global cooperation to address climate change and its impacts on vulnerable populations.

Climate change refugee context

Global climate change is increasingly becoming a national security concern as droughts, downpours, and heat waves drive millions of people from their homes in search of more stable environments. From Nicaragua to South Sudan, climate change induces scarcity in food resources, water supplies, land availability, and other essentials.

According to the World Bank, 200 million people could be displaced due to climate change by 2050, while the Institute for Economics and Peace suggests that number might be as high as 1 billion. In 2022, 739 million children were exposed to high or extremely high water scarcity, and 436 million children lived in areas of high or extremely high water vulnerability. , according to the Children’s Climate Risk Index. The report emphasized that climate change is primarily experienced through water, affecting its availability, whether in excess, scarcity, or pollution.

According to Ian Fry, UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights in the context of climate change, indigenous people, migrants, children, women, persons with disabilities, those living on small islands, and many developing nations are particularly exposed to the consequences of climate change. In 2022, over 32 million people were displaced by disasters, with a striking 98 percent of these displacements triggered by weather-related events, such as floods and storms, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center. US President Joe Biden noted climate change as one of the main reasons behind the mounting humanitarian crisis at the US/Mexico border and has committed USD $4 billion to address it. 

Disruptive impact

A 2021 whitepaper published by Yale Law School, Harvard Law School, and the University Network for Human Rights examined the migration pattern of the Nothern Triangle comprising El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. According to their analysis, climate change will displace about 4 million people in Mexico and Central America by 2050. As these potential climate migrants will most likely seek refuge in the US, the Biden administration must act quickly on immigration reform.

According to the paper’s co-author, Camila Bustos, the US must take responsibility by being a leader in immigration reform, given it has caused much of Latin America’s political instability and contributed significantly to global carbon emissions. The US must update policies to allow those displaced due to environmental reasons the same dignity and respect as other migrants.

Qualifying climate migrants as refugees would make solutions easier for those affected by disasters; unfortunately, the United Nations (UN) refugee agency does not classify them as such. To further complicate matters, climate migrants often face conflict with their host communities as they compete over resources. Millions of people displaced by climate change are subjected to contemporary slavery, debt bondage, prostitution, and forced marriages. If world governments do not act together to substantially decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase education, training, and employment opportunities for migrants, the consequences may worsen.

Implications of climate change refugees

Wider implications of climate change refugees may include: 

• Island nations working together to pool resources or invest in alternative land for their peoples to migrate to as sea levels continue to rise.


• Governments being pressured to develop a global climate refugee plan as more people risk dangerous migration journeys via land and sea.


• Significant economic losses due to natural disasters, including an increasing displacement of workers.


• Increased geopolitical tensions as more refugees enter developed economies, amplifying discrimination and anti-refugee rhetoric. 


• A surge in support for right-wing populist governments that promote walling off borders to migrants of all kinds to protect domestic populations from being overwhelmed by migrants.


• Increased incidents of discrimination and other human rights violations (e.g., human trafficking) as ethnic groups take refuge in foreign lands.

Questions to consider

• How is your country affected by climate change migrants?


• What can governments do to support their respective citizens affected by natural disasters?