Hydrogen-powered planes: Green skies ahead

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 1, 2024

Insight summary

Hydrogen-powered planes are poised to significantly reduce aviation’s environmental impact by offering cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels. As companies and governments invest in hydrogen technology, challenges like storage, infrastructure, and costs remain key hurdles. However, the shift to hydrogen could reshape air travel, spark new business models, and lead to international efforts to support green aviation.

Hydrogen-powered planes context

Hydrogen-powered planes are taking off as a fresh alternative to fossil-fuel aircraft, with the potential to slash aviation's carbon footprint and soar into a cleaner future. Hydrogen can be used either through combustion or in fuel cells, which convert the gas into electricity to power electric motors. According to the US Department of Energy's Earthshot program, the cost of green hydrogen—a cleaner form of hydrogen made from renewable energy—aims to drop from USD $5 per kilogram to USD $1 by 2030. Major companies like ZeroAvia and Airbus are investing heavily in hydrogen infrastructure, with the former planning to introduce a 20-seat hydrogen-powered plane by 2026. While hydrogen is abundant and renewable, its current production methods largely depend on fossil fuels, limiting its immediate environmental benefits.

The technology behind hydrogen planes is still evolving, with companies testing various approaches to ensure safety, efficiency, and feasibility. ZeroAvia, for instance, has already conducted test flights and expects hydrogen-powered planes capable of long-haul flights within the next 15 years. However, the range of hydrogen-powered aircraft is currently limited; a 2022 McKinsey study estimates that with current designs, hydrogen planes may cover up to 2,500 kilometers, which restricts them to short-haul routes. Retrofitting existing aircraft with hydrogen fuel cells could also help reduce emissions by up to 90 percent over the aircraft's life cycle, according to a 2023 analysis from the International Council on Clean Transportation. Despite the optimism, challenges like hydrogen storage, energy density, and the need for airport infrastructure upgrades remain significant hurdles.

Hydrogen development is part of a broader global effort to decarbonize aviation, with nations and companies forming partnerships to accelerate progress. Countries like the UAE and corporations like Shell are investing in scaling green hydrogen production, with targets such as 15 million tons of annual output by 2050. In addition, ZeroAvia is collaborating with aircraft manufacturers like Cessna and Mitsubishi, as well as airports in Canada, to explore hydrogen infrastructure possibilities. 

Disruptive impact

As air travel becomes greener, there may be a gradual shift in how people prioritize sustainability when booking flights. Hydrogen-powered planes could offer quieter flights with fewer emissions, creating a more pleasant flying experience. However, ticket prices could initially rise as airlines offset the cost of new technology and infrastructure, influencing consumers to reconsider frequent travel. Additionally, individuals may see changes in government incentives for choosing eco-friendly travel, similar to how electric vehicle subsidies are driving adoption today.

Airlines may need to rethink fleet upgrades and adjust their long-term strategies, focusing on retrofitting existing aircraft or investing in new hydrogen-powered models. The technology may also open new markets for companies developing hydrogen fuel cells and storage systems. However, these companies may face logistical challenges, such as creating onsite hydrogen production and refueling capabilities at airports. Businesses outside aviation, such as logistics firms, could explore the use of hydrogen-powered aircraft for faster, long-distance cargo transport.

Meanwhile, governments may play a crucial role in fostering the development of hydrogen aviation by setting policies and making large-scale investments. They may need to allocate funding for hydrogen production facilities and refueling infrastructure at airports, focusing on regions where the technology can be tested and scaled first. Countries may also develop international agreements regulating green hydrogen production and distribution, addressing cross-border challenges for long-haul flights. Furthermore, governments may update aviation regulations to include hydrogen-powered planes, balancing safety and environmental standards. 

Implications of hydrogen-powered planes

Wider implications of hydrogen-powered planes may include: 

• New business models focused on eco-friendly travel options, driving competition in green aviation.
• Governments implementing subsidies for hydrogen infrastructure leading to job growth in energy production, maintenance, and aviation sectors.
• The global demand for green hydrogen encouraging countries to collaborate, creating new international trade agreements focused on clean energy.
• Increased investment in hydrogen technology reducing the costs of other renewable energy technologies, benefiting broader industries beyond aviation.
• Airports upgrading to support hydrogen refueling requiring significant investment, increasing airport fees and potentially affecting ticket prices for passengers.
• Increased demand for engineers and technicians skilled in hydrogen fuel systems, affecting workforce training programs and education.
• Policy changes related to hydrogen production creating political debates around energy sources, especially in regions heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
• Demographic shifts as remote areas become more accessible for travel and business expansion.

Questions to consider

• How could hydrogen-powered planes change how you travel in the future?
• How could the development of hydrogen planes affect global efforts to combat climate change and reduce emissions?