Multimodal transportation: The cheaper, greener future of transport-as-as-service

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 18, 2021

Multimodal transportation, a blend of different methods to move people and goods, is reshaping daily commute and urban landscapes. This shift, fueled by societal attitudes towards health and environmental stewardship, is driving cities to adapt their infrastructure and strategies. As shared mobility services rise, the automotive industry is pivoting from car ownership to service provision, leading to broader implications for urban planning, labor markets, and environmental sustainability.

Multimodal transportation context

Multimodal transportation, which combines at least two methods or services to move people and goods from one place to another, is becoming more common. Many workers are now incorporating cycling into their commute, riding to the nearest bus or train station, or driving to a nearby parking lot and then cycling the "last mile" to their office. In 2020, global car sales fell 22 percent, and bike utilization spiked up as people avoided cramped buses and subways. This shift in commuting habits is a reflection of changing societal attitudes towards health, wellness, and environmental stewardship.

E-scooters are also becoming an alternative form of “last mile” transportation. A 2023 study published in the Journal of Big Data highlighted the potential of shared mobility services like e-scooters to reduce car use and improve urban transportation efficiency. This study underscores the potential of data-driven approaches to optimize shared mobility services and make them more integrated and efficient.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, rides in shared mobility services for e-scooters and e-bikes were already surging (more than 84 million rides in 2018). Shared bike and e-scooter company Lime has been at the forefront of the shared mobility movement, offering services in more than 100 cities across the globe. The company's mission is to provide a sustainable solution to the first and last mile transportation problem, and they have been successful in doing so. By 2030, it is expected that the market for e-scooters, once only thought of as a tech fad, may double.

Disruptive impact

Large cities like New York, Paris, and London are already investing in infrastructure that supports this shift. Notably, London, Milan, and Seattle have made bike lanes built during the pandemic permanent, anticipating an increase in bike usage. This move signifies a proactive approach to urban planning, where cities are adapting their infrastructure to accommodate changing transportation habits. It also suggests a future where cities are more bike-friendly, promoting healthier lifestyles and reducing carbon emissions.

The rise of multimodal transportation is also influencing how urban planners strategize traffic management. They are now using artificial intelligence (AI) simulators to allocate road lanes, redistribute traffic light waiting times, and reroute non-pedestrian transport. If a city sees an increase in bike usage, AI can adjust traffic light timings to ensure smoother flow for cyclists. This development could lead to more efficient and safer roads for all users, reducing congestion and potentially lowering accident rates.

Finally, the shift towards multimodal transportation and shared mobility services is prompting automobile manufacturers to rethink their business models. As cars become less of a product and more of a service, manufacturers may need to redesign their vehicles to better cater to ride-sharing services. This trend could mean cars designed with more passenger comfort features, or vehicles equipped with technology to support ride-sharing apps. In the long term, this could lead to a significant transformation in the automotive industry, with a focus on service provision rather than vehicle ownership.

Implications of multimodal transportation

Wider implications of multimodal transportation may include:

• Premium car brands re-branding themselves as luxury service vehicles to justify higher price points.


• Freight transport, such as trucks, being re-routed out of main roads to make room for more bike lanes and sidewalks.


• Decreasing demand for privately owned cars and parking lots in general.


• Increased public investment into public transit infrastructure that encourages increased public adoption of multimodal transportation.


• A shift towards more localized living and working patterns, reducing the need for long-distance commuting and potentially revitalizing local economies.


• The emergence of new political debates and policies around urban planning, with a focus on equitable access to multimodal transportation options, leading to more inclusive cities.


• A change in demographic trends, with younger generations favoring urban areas with robust multimodal transportation systems.


• The rise of new technologies to manage and optimize multimodal transportation systems, such as better sensors and computer vision.


• A potential decrease in labor demand in traditional automotive manufacturing sectors, as the focus shifts from car ownership to shared mobility services.


• A reduction in carbon emissions and urban air pollution, as more people opt for non-motorized or electric modes of transport.

Questions to consider

• How do you use multimodal transportation?


• Do you think that it’s more beneficial in the long term to invest in multimodal transport infrastructure?