Rising oceans and planning: Scrambling to keep afloat

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• October 11, 2024

Insight summary

Rising sea levels significantly threaten coastal communities worldwide, potentially impacting hundreds of millions of people by 2100. Countries are exploring various solutions, from relocating villages and building seawalls to developing floating homes and restoring wetlands. Governments and businesses would need to redevelop strategies and investments to protect against future risks.

Rising oceans and planning context

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024 highlights sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets as a key threat over the coming decade, potentially impacting over 410 million people by 2100. Coastal nations such as Bangladesh, China, India, and the Netherlands are particularly vulnerable, with millions living in low-lying areas. Adaptation strategies vary, from constructing seawalls and storm surge barriers in Denmark, Germany, and the UK, to developing policies in New Zealand to prevent construction in high-risk flood zones. Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that US coastlines could see up to 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050, requiring a reevaluation of coastal management practices.

Countries are implementing diverse solutions to address rising sea levels. In Fiji, the government is actively relocating entire villages from vulnerable coastal zones, with plans to move 42 villages in the next decade. The Maldives and South Korea are experimenting with floating homes to provide resilient living arrangements in response to rising waters. In the US, California is revising its sea level rise plan to incorporate new climate models and better guide local governments in preparation for higher tides and related hazards. Meanwhile, China and India are focusing on stormwater management techniques that absorb and store excess water for reuse, showcasing a multifaceted approach to managing increased flooding risks.

Many of these initiatives combine traditional engineering solutions with nature-based strategies. In the Netherlands, wetland restoration projects help absorb storm surges and mitigate coastal erosion. This method is also gaining traction in the US with the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project. However, a significant funding gap remains, with the World Economic Forum estimating that current efforts require between USD $194 billion to $366 billion annually. 

Disruptive impact

Coastal residents may face frequent displacement, with their homes at risk of flooding or even total loss. Property values in vulnerable areas could drop significantly, leading to financial instability for homeowners and communities. In addition, rising insurance costs might make it challenging for people to afford coverage in high-risk areas. Health risks could also increase due to the potential spread of waterborne diseases and contaminated drinking water as seawater intrudes into freshwater sources. Additionally, people may see more frequent evacuations and disruptions to local infrastructure, which could affect their work and commutes.

Meanwhile, companies may need to invest in adapting their operations, such as moving facilities to safer locations or upgrading infrastructure to withstand flooding. Real estate developers might also shift focus to building on higher ground or invest in floating architecture. In addition, insurance companies could face higher claims and may adjust their policies to account for greater risks, leading to higher premiums and reduced coverage for specific areas. However, there could be opportunities for innovation in designing new products and services tailored to flood-prone regions, such as flood-proof construction materials or water-resistant consumer goods.

Finally, governments may need to invest heavily in coastal defenses, such as seawalls and flood barriers, or in nature-based solutions like wetland restoration. Additionally, policymakers might prioritize updating building codes and land-use regulations to discourage construction in high-risk areas. There could also be a shift in international relations as nations negotiate over climate migration and the potential displacement of millions of people. Furthermore, governments might focus on securing funds for these initiatives, such as reallocating budgets or seeking international aid.

Implications of rising oceans and planning

Wider implications of rising oceans and planning may include: 

• Increased demand for climate-resilient infrastructure projects, leading to job creation in construction and engineering sectors.
• Coastal areas experiencing population shifts as residents migrate inland, resulting in demographic changes and potentially altering political landscapes.
• Advances in early warning systems and flood prediction technologies improving disaster response, potentially saving lives and reducing economic losses.
• Governments increasing investments in renewable energy sources to mitigate climate change, fostering innovation and potentially reducing carbon emissions.
• New urban planning approaches encouraging higher-density living in safe zones, potentially impacting housing markets and development patterns.
• Damaged agricultural lands and fisheries possibly leading to shifts in food production and increased food prices.
• Local economies experiencing shifts as tourism industries adapt to changing coastlines, potentially impacting small businesses and employment.
• Increased collaboration between countries on climate adaptation policies, potentially enhancing international relations but also leading to conflicts over funding and resources.
• A growing focus on sustainable water management practices to address saltwater intrusion, potentially improving freshwater availability and quality.

Questions to consider

• How might rising sea levels affect where you choose to live in the future?
• What changes could your local government make to better protect your community from flooding?