Simulating warfare: Decoding the future of warfare

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• September 8, 2023

Insight summary

In the face of US-China tensions over Taiwan, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven simulations are being used to strategize possible conflict outcomes, revealing severe potential consequences for all involved. These AI systems could revolutionize defense strategies, public policy, and business sectors by providing advanced data analysis and strategic solutions. However, as reliance on AI in warfare increases, pressing issues emerge, including shifts in employment, ethical questions around autonomous weapons, and the potential for reshaped global alliances.

Simulating warfare context

Amid escalating US-China tensions concerning Taiwan, numerous organizations are turning to AI-driven simulations to strategize potential future conflicts. In China, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is employing AI tools to rehearse for potential military campaigns against Taiwan. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan nonprofit policy research body, devised a war game that simulated an amphibious attack on Taiwan. Following two dozen rounds, the US, Japan, and Taiwan collectively managed to thwart a conventional marine assault by China in the game. 

Nevertheless, the simulation revealed severe consequences. The US and its allies lost many ships, hundreds of planes, and thousands of their military personnel. Taiwan's economy was ruined. Plus, the massive losses hurt the US' reputation for a long time. However, failing to take over Taiwan could shake up the rule of the Chinese Communist Party.

Chinese researchers claim that their AI system acts indistinguishably from humans during military war games. After numerous rounds of playing alongside or against the AI, even seasoned military strategists could not guess it was a machine. The developers declared in a paper published in a Chinese journal that "AlphaWar has passed the Turing test." They named this machine after Google DeepMind's AlphaGo, the first AI to beat human champions in the intricate Chinese board game.

Disruptive impact

As AI increasingly performs strategic and analytical tasks like warfare strategies, the human edge will come from creativity, interpersonal skills, and emotional intelligence. For example, game designers might focus more on crafting unique narratives and immersive experiences than just challenging gameplay, given that AI may outsmart the most difficult strategic design. Companies, especially those in the technology and defense sectors, also benefit from leveraging these AI advancements. 

Advanced systems could offer strong cybersecurity defenses, carry out large-scale data analysis for business intelligence, and provide complex logistics solutions. For instance, technology companies could develop AI-driven solutions that not only identify and mitigate threats but also strategize defense mechanisms similar to military war games. Defense contractors might also use these systems for enhanced situational awareness, force deployment, and risk assessment in actual or simulated conflicts.

For governments, these AI advancements could revolutionize defense strategy and public policy. Military departments might use advanced AI to simulate and prepare for various conflict scenarios, thereby improving national security. Moreover, policymakers could use similar simulations to predict the effects of different policies or public crises, helping them make more informed decisions. However, the rise of such sophisticated AI also raises critical questions about ethical use, data privacy, and the potential for AI-enabled warfare. Therefore, it is crucial for governments to consider these factors and establish regulatory frameworks that ensure the responsible use of AI.

Implications of simulating warfare

Wider implications of simulating warfare may include: 

• Increased reliance on AI leading to a decrease in human soldiers, resulting in lower employment rates in the defense sector.
• A decrease in human casualties as AI-controlled systems minimize the number of soldiers required to be physically present in combat zones.
• Reduced need for large-scale military exercises and live ammunition, minimizing the environmental impact caused by such activities.
• Significant advancements in military technology, such as autonomous vehicles, drones, and intelligent weapons systems leading to increased efficiency and effectiveness in combat operations.
• Advancements in virtual reality and immersive training methods benefiting other industries like entertainment, education, and healthcare.
• Heightened concerns regarding the ethics and accountability of autonomous weapons systems as decision-making capabilities are delegated to machines, raising questions about responsibility and the potential for unintended consequences.
• Altered dynamics of international relations and diplomacy as nations with advanced AI capabilities may gain a strategic advantage, leading to shifts in geopolitical power and potentially reshaping global alliances.
• Increased cyber attacks and vulnerabilities in military systems, as adversaries may attempt to exploit AI algorithms or disrupt communication networks, leading to an increased focus on cybersecurity measures.
• Altered societal perceptions of war and conflict, potentially desensitizing populations to the true human cost of armed conflict and impacting public opinion, empathy, and collective response to future conflicts.

Questions to consider

• If you work in the military, how is your organization simulating warfare or conducting war games?
• How might governments effectively implement ethical AI in warfare?