Space diplomacy: Space politics are about to become more complex

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  Space diplomacy
• November 16, 2022

Insight summary

The 2010s saw a wide range of technologies and government initiatives that transformed the space sector into an increasingly practical and affordable frontier for commercialization. There’s space tourism, research in space food production, mining exploration initiatives on the moon, and potential long-term visits to nearby planets like Mars. However, as these human activities start incorporating a broader diversity of stakeholders and interests, space policies must adapt accordingly. 

Space diplomacy context

As of 2022, the only international law overseeing space activities is the Outer Space Treaty, ratified by over 100 countries in 1967. The treaty includes non-governmental entities carrying out satellite operations (such as Starlink over Ukraine). Meanwhile, in 1967, the Soviet Union wanted to hold states accountable for private sector activities.

The law has a fundamental flaw in its assumption that a private company would not use satellites for military purposes. However, spacefaring powers like the US, China, Russia, and France have strengthened their respective space forces. At the same time, space debris could cause governments to start pointing fingers at each other for the proliferation of junk from broken satellites and explosions.

In late 2021, as Russia increased its military presence along the Ukrainian border, the Russian army launched a test of anti-satellite weapons that created dangerous levels of space debris. This action put Russia’s own astronauts at risk aboard the International Space Station and other personnel in nearby spacecraft. Concerned by these growing threats in space, United Nations (UN) members pushed for greater space security during the 2022 Open-Ended Working Group on Reducing Space Threats meeting in Geneva.

With more non-state actors venturing into space, the UN welcomed representatives from civil society to the meeting. According to Chile’s diplomat Ricardo Lagos, including civic groups is meaningful because there are an increasing number of civilians in space; their participation in these multilateral processes adds a second level of legitimacy to the outcomes.

Disruptive impact

The evolving dynamic of international space activities, as highlighted by the Harvard International Review, underscores a significant shift in global policy and security frameworks. The increasing interest of military forces in outer space as a strategic domain necessitates a recalibration of foreign policies and national security strategies. This trend reflects a departure from traditional views of space as a peripheral concern. The commitment of countries like the US, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, and France, as evidenced by the Combined Space Operations Vision 2031, underlines a collective effort towards ensuring the safety and sustainability of space activities.

The space renaissance holds immense economic, scientific, and societal potential. It opens avenues for groundbreaking innovation and fosters international strategic cooperation. Such cooperation is crucial for preventing conflicts that might arise from the increased utilization of space. The trend also signifies a shift towards recognizing space as a vital domain for technological advancement and economic growth.

Governments may need to develop new policies and collaborations to manage space activities and address potential security concerns. Businesses can tap into the economic potential of space technologies, driving innovation and creating new markets. Societies at large stand to benefit from the scientific advancements and enhanced global communication capabilities. 

Implications of space diplomacy

Wider implications of space diplomacy may include: 

• A worsening space cold war between countries from the West and the North Korea-Russia-China contingent.
• UN members creating increasingly detailed, long-term policies on implementing space governance and commercialization.
• Countries organizing space diplomats and agencies to prepare for future space politics and decision-making.
• Sustainability activists protesting the increase in space debris, demanding that businesses and countries be accountable for how they maintain and retire their space equipment.
• Some nation-states increasing their investments in space technologies, particularly for military and national security. This development may lead to more tensions across borders.
• International business models shifting towards space-based services, resulting in altered global supply chains and market dynamics.
• The emergence of specialized insurance policies for space assets, driving new financial models and risk assessments in the insurance industry.
• Educational institutions globally incorporating space technology and policy studies, preparing future workforces for an expanded space industry.

Questions to consider

• How should countries work together to ensure peace in space?
• How can governments ensure that space tourism companies don’t contribute to space debris?