Vaping: Can this new vice replace cigarettes?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• February 18, 2022

The World Health Organization states that the number of cigarette smokers has decreased globally since 2019 to just over a billion people. However, while the number of cigarette smokers has fallen, the popularity of e-cigarette products, popularly known as vapes, have seen their numbers rise by tens of millions of smokers during the 2010s. Euromonitor International estimates that there are more than 40 million e-cigarette smokers worldwide post-2018 and this number is set to touch the 55 million mark by 2021.

Vaping context

The vaping industry has almost tripled in valuation from $6.9 billion in 2013 to $19.3 billion in 2018. And as of 2021, the biggest consumers of vaping products are located in the US, the United Kingdom, and France; the e-cigarette industry within these three nations alone occupy more than half of the global figure at about $10 billion.

So, what is an e-cigarette? It’s a device that works by warming a liquid solution to an elevated temperature such that it produces an aerosol that can then be inhaled into a user’s lungs. Most vapes contain nicotine and can feature multiple flavors. In those jurisdictions where cannabis is legal, vapes may be sold containing cannabis products.

Vapes are popularly characterized by the high amount of smoke that they produce, which can be more substantial than the smoke produced from exhaling regular cigarettes. Vaping rigs can be modified and there are hundreds of flavors for users to experiment upon.

Disruptive impact

The rapid increase in market share for vaping products has attracted traditional players in the tobacco industry to enter this lucrative market. As the popularity of traditional cigarettes starts to wane, the trend toward vaping is set to become more popular and capture some of the smokers who have quit smoking traditional cigarettes. 

The long-term health effects of most vaping products are still unknown to science and to the public, and some of these products lie in a legal gray zone. 

The culture behind vaping is dynamic and growing, with advocates regularly hosting vaping events in the USA to showcase new vaping products and competitors performing various vaping tricks. Vaping use has experienced particularly high uptake among teenagers in developed countries and has the potential to replace cigarette use globally over the coming decades.

Implications of the vaping industry

Wider implications of the growing vaping industry may include:

• An explosion in vaping popularity across non-traditional markets in Asian, African, and South American markets.


• Increased public and government scrutiny around the health effects of vaping and renewed marketing campaigns to limit the industry’s growth.


• The potential use of vaping tech by the pharmaceutical industry as a novel tool to administer inhalable medical drugs to patients.


• The potential for criminal organizations to co-opt vaping tech to manufacture vapes that specialize in delivering various forms of illicit drugs. 

Questions to comment on

• What do you think are the adverse health effects of vaping?


• How do you think the vaping industry will evolve over the next five or 10 years time?