Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Zomwe zidzalowe m'malo mwa capitalism yachikhalidwe: Tsogolo la Chuma P8

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachitatu, 09/16/2020 - 03:52

Zambiri zomwe mukufuna kuwerenga zidzamveka zosatheka chifukwa cha ndale zamasiku ano. Chifukwa chake n’chakuti kuposa mitu yapitayi m’nkhani ino ya Tsogolo la Chuma, mutu womalizirawu ukunena za zosadziwika, nyengo ya m’mbiri ya anthu imene ilibe chitsanzo, nyengo imene ambiri aife tidzakumana nayo m’moyo wathu.

Mutu uwu ukuwunikira momwe dongosolo la chikapitalist lomwe tonse takhala tikudalira lidzasinthira pang'onopang'ono kukhala paradigm yatsopano. Tikambirana zomwe zingapangitse kusinthaku kukhala kosapeweka. Ndipo tikambirana za kuchuluka kwa chuma chomwe dongosolo latsopanoli lidzabweretse kwa anthu.

Kusintha kofulumira kumabweretsa kusakhazikika kwachuma komanso kusakhazikika kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi

Koma tisanafufuze za tsogolo losangalatsali, ndikofunikira kuti timvetsetse zachisoni, nthawi yakusintha yamtsogolo yomwe tonse tikhala pakati pa 2020 mpaka 2040. Kuti tichite izi, tiyeni tidutsenso mwachidule zomwe taphunzira mu izi. mndandanda mpaka pano.

M'zaka 20 zikubwerazi, anthu ambiri masiku ano akugwira ntchito adzapuma pantchito.
Nthawi yomweyo, msika uwona kupita patsogolo kwakukulu kwamachitidwe a robotic ndi Artificial Intelligence (AI) chaka ndi chaka.
Kuperewera kwa ogwira ntchito m'tsogoloku kudzathandiziranso chitukuko chaukadaulo chomwe chikuyenda bwino chifukwa chidzakakamiza msika kuti ugwiritse ntchito matekinoloje atsopano, opulumutsa anthu ogwira ntchito komanso mapulogalamu omwe apangitse makampani kukhala opindulitsa, ndikuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa ogwira ntchito omwe akufunika kuti agwire ( kapena mwina, posalemba antchito atsopano/olowa m'malo antchito omwe alipo atapuma pantchito).
Akangopangidwa, mtundu uliwonse watsopano wa matekinoloje opulumutsa anthuwa udzasefera m'mafakitale onse, ndikuchotsa antchito mamiliyoni ambiri. Ndipo ngakhale kusowa kwa ntchito zaukadaulo uku sikwachilendo, ndikufulumira kwa chitukuko cha robotic ndi AI chomwe chikupangitsa kusinthaku kukhala kovuta kusintha.
Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, ndalama zokwanira zikadzayikidwa mu robotics ndi AI, tidzawonanso ntchito yochuluka ya anthu, ngakhale titakhala ndi chiwerengero chochepa cha anthu azaka zogwira ntchito. Izi ndizomveka chifukwa mamiliyoni a anthu ukadaulo adzakakamiza kulowa ntchito komanso kusowa ntchito.
Kuchuluka kwa ntchito za anthu pamsika kumatanthauza kuti anthu ambiri azipikisana ndi ntchito zochepa; izi zimapangitsa kukhala kosavuta kwa olemba ntchito kupondereza malipiro kapena kuyimitsa malipiro. M'mbuyomu, mikhalidwe yotereyi ikanathandizanso kuyimitsa ndalama kukhala matekinoloje atsopano chifukwa ntchito yotsika mtengo ya anthu nthawi zonse imakhala yotsika mtengo kuposa makina okwera mtengo kumafakitale. Koma m'dziko lathu latsopano lolimba mtima, kuchuluka komwe ma robotics ndi AI akupita patsogolo kumatanthauza kuti adzakhala otsika mtengo komanso opindulitsa kwambiri kuposa antchito aumunthu, ngakhale atanenedwa kuti anthu amagwira ntchito kwaulere.
Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2030, kusowa kwa ntchito ndi kuchepa kwa ntchito kudzakhala kosatha. Malipiro adzafalikira m'mafakitale onse. Ndipo kugawikana kwachuma pakati pa olemera ndi osauka kudzachulukirachulukira.
Kudya (kuwononga) kungalephereke. Ngongole thovu zidzaphulika. Chuma chidzayima. Osankhidwa adzakwiya.

Populism ikuwonjezeka

Munthawi yamavuto azachuma komanso kusatsimikizika, ovota amakokera kwa atsogoleri amphamvu, okopa omwe amatha kulonjeza mayankho osavuta ndi mayankho osavuta ku zovuta zawo. Ngakhale sizoyenera, mbiri yawonetsa kuti izi ndizochitika mwachilengedwe zomwe ovota amawonetsa akamaopa tsogolo lawo. Tifotokoza mwatsatanetsatane za izi komanso zochitika zina zokhudzana ndi boma mumndandanda wathu womwe ukubwera wa Tsogolo la Boma, koma chifukwa cha zokambirana zathu pano, ndikofunikira kuzindikira izi:

Pofika kumapeto kwa 2020s, a Zaka Chikwi ndi Chibadwo X iyamba kusintha m'malo mwa kuchuluka kwa anthu m'maboma onse, padziko lonse lapansi - izi zikutanthauza kutenga maudindo muutumiki wa boma ndi kutenga maudindo osankhidwa kumatauni, boma / zigawo, ndi feduro.
Monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Chiwerengero cha Anthu mndandanda, kulandidwa kwa ndale kumeneku sikungapeweke mwachiwerengero cha anthu. Obadwa pakati pa 1980 ndi 2000, Millennials tsopano ndi m'badwo waukulu kwambiri ku America ndi padziko lonse lapansi, opitilira 100 miliyoni ku US ndi 1.7 biliyoni padziko lonse lapansi (2016). Ndipo pofika chaka cha 2018—onse akadzafika pa msinkhu wovota—adzakhala malo oponya voti aakulu kwambiri moti sangawanyalanyaze, makamaka pamene mavoti awo aphatikizidwa ndi ang’onoang’ono, koma amene ali ndi mphamvu zovotera a Gen X.
Chofunika kwambiri, kafukufuku awonetsa kuti magulu awiriwa ndi omasuka kwambiri pazandale ndipo onse ali okhumudwa komanso okayikira momwe zinthu zilili pano pankhani ya momwe boma ndi chuma chimayendera.
Kwa zaka chikwi, makamaka, kulimbana kwawo kwazaka zambiri kuti apeze ntchito yabwino komanso kuchuluka kwachuma monga makolo awo, makamaka poyang'anizana ndi kuphwanyidwa kwa ngongole za ngongole za ophunzira komanso chuma chosakhazikika (2008-9) kukhazikitsa malamulo aboma ndi zoyambitsa zomwe zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi chikhalidwe cha sosholisti kapena zofanana.

Kuyambira 2016, taona atsogoleri a anthu akulowa kale ku South America, Europe, komanso North America posachedwa, komwe (makamaka) anthu awiri otchuka kwambiri pachisankho chapurezidenti waku US mu 2016 - a Donald Trump ndi Bernie Sanders - adapikisana nawo mopanda manyazi. nsanja, ngakhale zotsutsana ndi ndale. Izi zandale sizikupita kulikonse. Ndipo popeza atsogoleri a anthu ambiri amatsatira mfundo zomwe 'zotchuka' ndi anthu, mosakayikira amatsatira mfundo zomwe zimakhudza kuchulukitsa kwa ndalama zopezera ntchito (zomangamanga) kapena zachitukuko kapena zonse ziwiri.

Dongosolo Latsopano Latsopano

Chabwino, ndiye kuti tili ndi tsogolo lomwe atsogoleri a anthu amasankhidwa nthawi zonse ndi osankhidwa omwe ali ndi ufulu wosankha nthawi yomwe tekinoloje ikupita patsogolo mwachangu kotero kuti ikuchotsa ntchito / ntchito zambiri kuposa kupanga kwake, ndipo pamapeto pake kukulitsa kusiyana pakati pa olemera ndi osauka. .

Ngati kusonkhanitsa zinthu kumeneku sikubweretsa kusintha kwakukulu kwa maboma ndi zachuma, ndiye kunena zoona, sindikudziwa chomwe chidzachitike.

Chomwe chikubwera pambuyo pake ndikusintha kwanthawi yazambiri kuyambira chapakati pa 2040s. Nthawi yamtsogoloyi ikukhudza mitu yambiri, ndipo ndi imodzi yomwe tikambirana mozama munkhani zathu za Tsogolo la Boma ndi Tsogolo la Zachuma. Koma kachiwiri, m'nkhani ino, tikhoza kunena kuti nthawi yatsopano yachuma idzayamba ndi kukhazikitsa njira zatsopano zothandizira anthu.

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2030, imodzi mwazinthu zomwe maboma ambiri amtsogolo angakhazikitse idzakhala Zowonjezera Zachilengedwe (UBI), ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa pamwezi kwa nzika zonse mwezi uliwonse. Ndalama zomwe zidzaperekedwe zimasiyana m'mayiko osiyanasiyana, koma nthawi zonse zidzakwaniritsa zosowa za anthu zopezera nyumba ndi kudzidyetsa okha. Maboma ambiri adzapereka ndalamazi mwaufulu, pamene owerengeka adzayesa kumangiriza ndi ndondomeko zokhudzana ndi ntchito. Pamapeto pake, UBI (ndi mitundu ina yosiyanasiyana yomwe ingapikisane nayo) idzapanga maziko atsopano / malo opeza ndalama kuti anthu azikhalamo popanda kuopa njala kapena kusowa kotheratu.

Pofika pano, ndalama za UBI zitha kuyendetsedwa ndi mayiko ambiri otukuka (monga momwe tafotokozera m'mutu 2011), ngakhale ndi ndalama zambiri zopezera UBI yocheperako m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene. Thandizo la UBI silingalepherekenso chifukwa kupereka chithandizochi kudzakhala kotsika mtengo kwambiri kusiyana ndi kulola maiko omwe akutukuka kumene kugwa ndikukhala ndi mamiliyoni a anthu othawa kwawo omwe akusowa chuma akusefukira m'malire kupita ku mayiko otukuka - kulawa kwa izi kumawoneka panthawi ya Syria yosamukira ku Ulaya. pafupi ndi kuyamba kwa nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Syria (XNUMX-).

Koma musalakwitse, mapologalamu atsopanowa adzakhala akugaŵiranso ndalama pamlingo umene sunawonedwepo kuyambira m’ma 1950 ndi m’ma 60—nthaŵi imene olemera ankakhomeredwa msonkho wokulirapo (70 mpaka 90 peresenti), anthu amapatsidwa maphunziro otchipa ndi ngongole zanyumba, ndipo Zotsatira zake, gulu lapakati linapangidwa ndipo chuma chinakula kwambiri.

Mofananamo, mapologalamu azaumoyo amtsogolowa athandizanso kukonzanso anthu amgulu lapakati popatsa aliyense ndalama zokwanira zokhala ndi moyo ndikugwiritsa ntchito mwezi uliwonse, ndalama zokwanira kutenga nthawi yopita. kubwerera kusukulu ndi kuyambiranso ntchito zamtsogolo, ndalama zokwanira kutenga ntchito zina kapena kukwanitsa kugwira ntchito maola ocheperako posamalira achinyamata, odwala ndi okalamba. Mapulogalamuwa adzachepetsa kuchuluka kwa kusiyana kwa ndalama pakati pa amuna ndi akazi, komanso pakati pa olemera ndi osauka, popeza moyo womwe aliyense amasangalala nawo udzagwirizana pang'onopang'ono. Pomaliza, mapulogalamuwa adzayambitsanso chuma chogwiritsa ntchito ndalama pomwe nzika zonse zimawononga ndalama popanda kuopa kuti ndalama zidzatha (mpaka nthawi).

M'malo mwake, tigwiritsa ntchito mfundo za chikhalidwe cha anthu kuti tigwirizane ndi capitalism kuti injini yake ikhale yong'ung'udza.

Kulowa mu nthawi ya kuchuluka

Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa chuma chamakono, dongosolo lathu lathetsa zenizeni za kusowa kosalekeza kwa chuma. Panalibe katundu ndi ntchito zokwanira kukwaniritsa zosowa za aliyense, kotero tidapanga dongosolo lazachuma lomwe limalola anthu kusinthanitsa bwino zinthu zomwe anali nazo kuti azigwiritsa ntchito zomwe amafunikira kuti afikitse anthu pafupi, koma osafikira, dziko lochuluka kumene. zosowa zonse zakwaniritsidwa.

Komabe, ukadaulo wakusintha kwaukadaulo ndi sayansi zomwe zikupereka zaka makumi zikubwerazi zidzatisinthira koyamba kukhala nthambi yazachuma yotchedwa. pambuyo kusowa zachuma. Uwu ndi chuma chongoyerekeza momwe katundu ndi ntchito zambiri zimapangidwa mochulukira ndi ntchito yochepa yofunikira ya anthu, potero zimapangitsa kuti katundu ndi ntchitozi zizipezeka kwa nzika zonse kwaulere kapena zotsika mtengo kwambiri.

Kwenikweni, uwu ndi mtundu wachuma womwe otchulidwa ku Star Trek ndi ziwonetsero zina zamtsogolo zamtsogolo za sayansi zimagwirira ntchito.

Pakalipano, kuyesetsa kochepa kwambiri kwapangidwa pofufuza tsatanetsatane wa momwe chuma chapambuyo pa kusowa chingagwire ntchito zenizeni. Izi ndizomveka chifukwa chakuti mtundu uwu wachuma sunali wotheka m'mbuyomo ndipo mwina upitiriza kukhala wosatheka kwa zaka makumi angapo.

Komabe pongoganiza kuti chuma chapambuyo pakusowa chimakhala chofala pofika zaka za m'ma 2050, pali zotsatira zingapo zomwe zimakhala zosapeweka:

Padziko lonse, momwe timayezera thanzi lazachuma zidzasintha kuchoka pa kuyeza ndalama zonse zapakhomo (GDP) kupita ku momwe timagwiritsira ntchito mphamvu ndi chuma moyenera.
Payekha, tidzakhala ndi yankho ku zomwe zimachitika chuma chikakhala chaulere. Kwenikweni, pamene zosoŵa zofunika za munthu aliyense zikwaniritsidwa, chuma chandalama kapena kudzikundikira ndalama pang’onopang’ono kudzayamba kunyonyotsoka m’chitaganya. M'malo mwake, anthu azidzifotokozera okha mochuluka ndi zomwe amachita kuposa zomwe ali nazo.
Mwanjira ina, izi zikutanthauza kuti anthu pamapeto pake adzapeza kudzidalira kocheperako kuchokera ku kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe ali nazo poyerekeza ndi munthu wotsatira, komanso zambiri ndi zomwe akuchita kapena zomwe akupereka poyerekeza ndi munthu wotsatira. Kupambana, osati chuma, ndiko kudzakhala kutchuka kwatsopano pakati pa mibadwo yamtsogolo.

Munjira izi, momwe timayendetsera chuma chathu komanso momwe timadziyendetsera tokha zimakhala zokhazikika pakapita nthawi. Kaya zonsezi zibweretsa nyengo yatsopano yamtendere ndi chisangalalo kwa onse ndizovuta kunena, koma tiyandikira kwambiri kudziko lino kuposa nthawi ina iliyonse m'mbiri yathu yonse.