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ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Russia, ufumuwo ukubwereranso: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 12:42

Kuneneratu kodabwitsa kumeneku kudzayang'ana kwambiri pazandale zaku Russia pokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, muwona dziko la Russia lomwe lapindula kwambiri ndi nyengo yofunda - kugwiritsa ntchito mwayi wamalo ake kuteteza Europe. ndi makontinenti aku Asia kuchokera ku njala yotheratu, ndikupezanso malo ake monga mphamvu yamphamvu yapadziko lonse munjirayi.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale la Russia - silinafotokozedwe bwino. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani ngati Gwynne Dyer, a. wolemba wamkulu m'munda uno. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Russia ikukula

Mosiyana ndi mayiko ambiri, kusintha kwanyengo kupangitsa Russia kukhala wopambana kumapeto kwa 2040s. Chifukwa cha kawonedwe kabwino kameneka n’chakuti phiri lalikulu lozizira kwambiri masiku ano lisintha n’kukhala malo aakulu kwambiri padziko lonse olimidwa, chifukwa cha nyengo yotentha kumene imene idzawononge madera ambiri a dzikolo. Dziko la Russia limasangalalanso ndi nkhokwe za madzi abwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo, dziko la Russia lidzasangalala ndi mvula yambiri kuposa imene inalembedwapo. Madzi onsewa—kuwonjezera pa mfundo yakuti masiku ake aulimi amatha kufika maola XNUMX kapena kuposerapo pamalo okwera—amatanthauza kuti dziko la Russia lidzasangalala ndi kusintha kwaulimi.

Mwachilungamo, Canada ndi maiko aku Scandinavia nawonso adzasangalala ndi ulimi womwewo. Koma ndi chuma cha Canada kukhala motsogozedwa ndi America komanso mayiko aku Scandinavia akuvutika kuti asamire chifukwa cha kukwera kwamadzi am'nyanja, dziko la Russia lokha lidzakhala ndi ufulu wodzilamulira, mphamvu zankhondo, komanso kuthekera kwapadziko lonse lapansi kugwiritsa ntchito chakudya chochuluka kuti chiwonjezere mphamvu zake padziko lonse lapansi. .

Sewero lamphamvu

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, ambiri a Kum'mwera kwa Ulaya, ku Middle East konse, ndi madera akuluakulu a China adzawona minda yawo yokolola kwambiri ikuuma kukhala zipululu zopanda phindu. Padzakhala zoyesa kulima chakudya m'mafamu akuluakulu oyimirira komanso amkati, komanso kupanga mbewu zolimbana ndi kutentha ndi chilala, koma palibe chitsimikizo kuti zatsopanozi zitheka kuti zithandizire kutayika kwa chakudya padziko lonse lapansi.

Lowani ku Russia. Monga momwe pakadali pano imagwiritsa ntchito nkhokwe zake za gasi kuti zithandizire ndalama zadziko lonse komanso kukhalabe ndi chikoka kwa oyandikana nawo aku Europe, dzikolo ligwiritsanso ntchito chakudya chomwe chatsalira m'tsogolomu momwemonso. Chifukwa chake n'chakuti pazaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, pakhala pali njira zina zosiyanitsira gasi, koma sipadzakhalanso njira zambiri zogwirira ntchito m'malo mwaulimi wamafakitale womwe umafunikira malo olimapo ambiri.

Zonsezi sizichitika mwadzidzidzi, chifukwa cha couse, makamaka pambuyo pa kutha kwa mphamvu kwa Putin kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2020-koma pamene ulimi uyamba kuipiraipira kumapeto kwa 2020s, zomwe zatsala ku Russia yatsopanoyo idzagulitsa pang'onopang'ono kapena kubwereketsa. kuchokera kumadera ambiri osatukuka kupita ku mabungwe alimi padziko lonse lapansi (Big Agri). Cholinga cha kugulitsa uku chidzakhala kukopa mabiliyoni a madola a ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi kuti amange zomangamanga zake zaulimi, potero kuonjezera chakudya cha Russia chowonjezera komanso mphamvu zamalonda pa oyandikana nawo kwa zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi.

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, dongosololi lidzapeza phindu. Pokhala ndi mayiko ochepa omwe akutumiza chakudya kunja, dziko la Russia lidzakhala ndi mphamvu zochepetsera mitengo pamisika yazakudya padziko lonse lapansi. Dziko la Russia lidzagwiritsa ntchito chuma chatsopanochi chogulitsa zakudya kumayiko ena kuti chikonzenso zida zake zankhondo ndi zankhondo, kutsimikizira kukhulupirika kwa ma satellite ake akale aku Soviet, ndikugula chuma chamayiko omwe akuvutika maganizo kuchokera kwa oyandikana nawo. Pochita izi, Russia ipezanso mphamvu zake zazikulu ndikuwonetsetsa kulamulira kwandale kwanthawi yayitali ku Europe ndi Middle East, ndikukankhira US kumbali yazandale. Komabe, Russia ipitiliza kukumana ndi zovuta za geopolitical kummawa.

Othandizira a Silk Road

Kumadzulo, Russia idzakhala ndi mayiko angapo okhulupirika, omwe kale anali a Soviet Union kuti ateteze anthu othawa kwawo ku Ulaya ndi kumpoto kwa Africa. Kummwera, dziko la Russia lidzasangalala ndi zotchingira zambiri, kuphatikizapo zotchinga zazikulu zachilengedwe monga mapiri a Caucasus, mayiko omwe kale anali Soviet (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, ndi Kyrgyzstan), komanso bwenzi losalowerera ndale ku Mongolia. Kum'mawa, komabe, Russia imagawana malire akulu ndi China, omwe alibe chotchinga chilichonse.

Malirewa atha kukhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu popeza dziko la China silinazindikire zomwe dziko la Russia likunena pamalire ake akale. Ndipo pofika zaka za m'ma 2040, chiŵerengero cha anthu ku China chidzakwera kufika pa anthu oposa 1.4 biliyoni (chiŵerengero chachikulu cha omwe atsala pang'ono kupuma pantchito), pomwe akulimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo komwe kumayambitsa ulimi wa dzikolo. Poyang'anizana ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe ali ndi njala, dziko la China mwachibadwa lidzayang'ana minda yaulimi yakum'mawa kwa Russia kuti apewe ziwonetsero zina ndi zipolowe zomwe zingawononge mphamvu za boma.

Pazimenezi, Russia idzakhala ndi njira ziwiri: Amass asilikali ake m'malire a Russia-China ndipo angayambitse mkangano ndi m'modzi mwa asilikali asanu apamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi ndi mphamvu za nyukiliya, kapena akhoza kugwira ntchito ndi aku China powabwereketsa gawo lina. ya gawo la Russia.

Russia mwina angasankhe njira yomaliza pazifukwa zingapo. Choyamba, mgwirizano ndi China udzagwira ntchito ngati wotsutsana ndi ulamuliro wa geopolitical US, kupititsa patsogolo mphamvu zake zomangidwanso. Kuphatikiza apo, Russia ikhoza kupindula ndi ukatswiri waku China pakumanga ntchito zazikulu zomanga zomangamanga, makamaka popeza kuti zomangamanga zakale zakhala chimodzi mwazofooka zazikulu zaku Russia.

Ndipo potsiriza, chiwerengero cha anthu ku Russia pakali pano chikuchepa. Ngakhale mamiliyoni a anthu ochokera ku Russia omwe amasamukira kumayiko ena ochokera kumayiko omwe kale anali Soviet Union, pofika m'ma 2040 adzafunikabe mamiliyoni ambiri kuti athe kudzaza malo ake akuluakulu ndikumanga chuma chokhazikika. Chifukwa chake, polola anthu othawa kwawo ku China kuti asamuke ndi kukhazikika m'zigawo zakum'mawa kwa Russia komwe kuli anthu ochepa, dzikolo silidzangopeza ntchito zambiri zaulimi komanso kuthana ndi nkhawa zomwe zakhala zikuchitika kwanthawi yayitali, makamaka ngati lingawasinthe. kukhala nzika zokhazikika komanso zokhulupirika zaku Russia.

Mawonedwe aatali

Monga momwe dziko la Russia lidzagwiritsira ntchito molakwa mphamvu zake zatsopano, kugulitsa kwake zakudya kudzakhala kofunika kwambiri kwa anthu a ku Ulaya, Middle East, ndi Asia omwe ali pachiopsezo cha njala. Russia idzapindula kwambiri chifukwa ndalama zogulira zakudya zogulitsa kunja sizingangolipira ndalama zomwe zidatayika panthawi yomwe dziko lapansi likusintha kukhala mphamvu zongowonjezera mphamvu (kusintha komwe kungafooketse bizinesi yake yotumiza kunja kwa gasi), koma kupezeka kwake kudzakhala imodzi mwazinthu zochepa zokhazikika zomwe zimalepheretsa kugwa kwathunthu kwa mayiko m'makontinenti onse. Izi zati, oyandikana nawo akuyenera kuchitapo kanthu kuti achenjeze Russia kuti isalowerere m'tsogolomu zomwe zidzachitike padziko lonse lapansi zokonzanso nyengo - popeza Russia idzakhala ndi zifukwa zokwanira zotenthetsera dziko lapansi momwe zingathere.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Choyamba, kumbukirani kuti zomwe mwawerengazi ndi kulosera chabe, osati zenizeni. Ndilonso zoneneratu zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingathe ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa 2040s kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo (zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwe mu mndandanda womaliza). Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa: