I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

I-Artificial Intelligence ingugesi wakusasa: Ikusasa le-artificial intelligence P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 15:03

Ukuziphendukela kwemvelo komuntu kuthatha igxathu elikhulu eliya phambili njalo lapho sithola ukulawula umthombo omusha wamandla ayisisekelo. Futhi ukholwe noma ungakukholwa, sesiseduze nokugxuma kwethu okuhle okulandelayo.

Okhokho bethu babebukeka njengemfene yanamuhla—ugebhezi lwekhanda oluncanyana, amazinyo amakhulu kanye nomhlathi oqine kakhulu wokuhlafuna amakhilogremu ezitshalo eziluhlaza lezo izisu zethu ezinkulu ezingazichitha amahora nezinsuku zigaya. Kodwa-ke sathola umlilo.

Ngemva kokuhlola izinsalela zokusha kwehlathi, okhokho bethu bathola izidumbu zezilwane ezishile okwathi lapho bezihlolisisa … zanuka kamnandi. Ukuwavula kwakulula. Inyama yayinambitheka kakhulu futhi kulula ukuyihlafuna. Futhi okuhle kunakho konke, le nyama ephekiwe yagayeka ngokushesha futhi izakhi zayo ezengeziwe zangena emzimbeni. Okhokho bethu bahujwa.

Ngemva kokufunda ukwehlisa umlilo nokuwusebenzisa ukupheka ukudla, izizukulwane ezalandela zabona izinguquko ezikhulayo emizimbeni yazo. Imihlathi namazinyo abo kwakhula kwaba mancane njengoba kwakungadingeki ukuba bahlafune ngokungapheli phakathi kwezitshalo eziqinile, eziluhlaza kanye nenyama. Amathumbu abo (izisu) aba mancane ngoba ukudla okuphekiwe kwakulula kakhulu ukugayeka. Futhi ukumuncwa okwandisiwe kwezakhamzimba enyameni ephekiwe, futhi ngokungangabazeki isidingo sethu esisha sokuzingela ukudla kwethu, kwasiza ukukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kobuchopho nezingqondo zethu.

Iminyaka eyinkulungwane kamuva isintu sathola ukulawula kukagesi, okwabangela iNguquko Yezimboni ngo-1760 futhi kwaholela osukwini lwethu lwanamuhla. Futhi lapha futhi, imizimba yethu iyashintsha.

Siphila isikhathi eside. Siyakhula. Inani lethu lamabhaluni liyazalana ukuze lidale ukuhlukahluka okukhulu kwesintu. Futhi njengoba siba ingcweti kwezobuchwepheshe ngemuva kobunjiniyela bofuzo maphakathi nawo-2040s, isintu sizothola ikhono lokuthonya ngokuqondile ukuvela kwaso ngokomzimba ngesiqeshana esisheshayo. (Zizwe ukhululekile ukufunda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokuziphendukela Kwabantu uchungechunge.)

Kodwa ekuqaleni kwawo-2030, isintu sizobona amandla amasha: ubuhlakani beqiniso bokwenziwa (AI).

Ukukhuphuka kwekhompuyutha yomuntu siqu kanye ne-inthanethi kusinikeze ukunambitheka kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kokuthi ukufinyelela kubuhlakani obungeziwe (amandla ayisisekelo wekhompyutha) kungawushintsha kanjani umhlaba wethu. Kodwa kulolu chungechunge olunezingxenye eziyisithupha, sikhuluma ngobuhlakani obungenamkhawulo ngempela, uhlobo olufunda ngokwalo, luthatha isinyathelo ngokwalo, ubukhulu bobuhlakani obungakhulula noma bugqilaze sonke isintu.

Lokhu kuzoba mnandi.

Ukuqeda ukudideka mayelana nobuhlakani bokwenziwa

Ukubeka eceleni ukuvulwa okumangazayo, masithole iqiniso nge-AI. Kubantu abaningi, i-AI iyisihloko esididayo ngempela. Ingxenye enkulu yalokho kudideka ivela ekusebenziseni kwayo budlabha kuwo wonke amasiko e-pop, abezindaba, ngisho nasezifundweni. Amaphuzu ambalwa:

1. R2-D2. I-Terminator. Idatha evela ku-Star Trek: TNG. I-Ava evela ku-Ex Machina. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ivezwe kokuhle noma okungekuhle, ububanzi be-AI eqanjiwe bufiphalisa ukuqonda komphakathi ukuthi iyini ngempela i-AI namandla ayo. Lokho kusho, ziwusizo njengezinkomba zemfundo. Kungakho ngenxa yengxoxo, kulo lonke lolu chungechunge, sizoqamba lawa (nokunye) ama-AI aqanjiwe lapho sichaza amazinga ahlukene e-AI akhona namuhla futhi azodalwa kusasa.

2. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi iwashi elihlakaniphile le-Apple noma i-Tesla yakho ezimele, i-Amazon Echo yakho noma i-Google Mini yakho, kulezi zinsuku, sizungezwe i-AI. Kodwa ngenxa yokuthi sekuyinsakavukela umchilo wesidwaba, akusabonakali nhlobo kithina, kufana nezinsiza esithembele kuzo, njengogesi namanzi. Njengabantu, sisengozini yohlu lokuchema kwengqondo, okusho ukuthi le ndawo evame ukwanda ye-AI isiphoqa ukuthi sichaze kabusha umqondo wethu we-AI 'yangempela' ukuze ube inganekwane kakhulu kunokuba ibe ngokoqobo.

3. Ngasohlangothini lwezemfundo, ososayensi bezinzwa, izazi zebhayoloji, izazi zokusebenza kwengqondo, njll., Ochwepheshe abakhathazeke kakhulu ngobuchopho nengqondo abakabi nakho ukuqonda okuphelele kokuthi ubuchopho busebenza kanjani. Ngaphandle kwalokhu kuqonda, isayensi ayikwazi ukukhomba ngempumelelo ukuthi i-AI iyaphila noma ayinawo umuzwa (iyaphila).

4. Uma sihlanganisa konke lokhu, isiko lethu le-pop, isayensi yethu, nokuchema kwethu kwabantu kuhlanekezela indlela esicabanga ngayo nge-AI kusukela ekuqaleni. Njengabantu, ngokwemvelo sivame ukuqonda imiqondo emisha ngokuyiqhathanisa nezinto esizazi kakade. Sizama ukuqonda i-AI ngokuyenza i-anthropomorphizing, siveze ubuntu bomuntu kanye namafomu, okufana nezwi lesifazane le-Amazon Alexa. Ngokunjalo, umzwelo wethu wemvelo uwukucabanga ngomqondo weqiniso we-AI njengalowo ozosebenza futhi ucabange njengowethu. Hhayi-ke, ngeke kube yindlela edlala ngayo leyo.

Into okufanele ikhunjulwe ukuthi ingqondo yomuntu, eduze kwazo zonke izilwane nezinambuzane esihlanganyela nazo le planethi, imele uhlobo lobuhlakani obuguquguqukayo (EI). Indlela esicabanga ngayo iwumphumela oqondile wezici ezimbili: inkulungwane yeminyaka yokuziphendukela kwemvelo eyalolonga umzwelo wethu ongokwemvelo nezitho zezinzwa (ukubona, ukuhogela, ukuthinta, njll.) ubuchopho bethu busebenzisa ukuqoqa ulwazi.

I-AI esiyidalayo ngeke ibe nalokhu kumiswa.

I-AI yamanje neyesikhathi esizayo ngeke igijime ngomzwelo ongacacile noma imizwa kodwa imigomo ebekiwe. I-AI ngeke ibe nedlanzana lezitho zezinzwa; esikhundleni salokho, kuye ngesilinganiso sazo, bazokwazi ukufinyelela emashumini, amakhulu, ezinkulungwaneni, ngisho nezigidigidi zezinzwa ngazinye zonke zibanika izingcaphuno zedatha yesikhathi sangempela.

Ukufingqa, kufanele siqale ukucabanga nge-AI kancane njengemishini futhi njengabafokazi—izinhlangano ezihluke ngokuphelele kunathi.

Sinalokhu emqondweni, masishintshe amagiya futhi sigxile emazingeni ahlukene e-AI asendleleni. Kulolu chungechunge, sizogqamisa amaleveli amathathu avame ukuxoxwa ngochwepheshe abaningi be-AI.

Kuyini ubuhlakani bokwenziwa obuncane?

Kwesinye isikhathi ibizwa ngokuthi "i-AI ebuthakathaka," i-artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) i-AI egxile emkhakheni owodwa noma umsebenzi. Ibona bese yenza ngokwendawo yayo/isimo ngqo ngaphandle komqondo womhlaba obanzi.

Isibali sakho. Zonke izinhlelo zokusebenza zomsebenzi owodwa ku-smartphone yakho. Oshekha noma i-Starcraft AI odlala nayo ku-inthanethi. Lezi zonke izibonelo zakuqala ze-ANI.

Kodwa kusukela ngo-2010, siphinde sabona ukwanda kwama-ANI athuthuke kakhulu, lawa anekhono elengeziwe lokucabangela ulwazi lwangaphambilini futhi awengeze emifanekisweni yawo yomhlaba ehlelwe ngaphambilini. Ngamanye amazwi, lawa ma-ANI amasha angafunda kokuhlangenwe nakho kwesikhathi esidlule futhi kancane kancane enze izinqumo ezingcono.

Injini yosesho ye-Google iyisibonelo esisobala se-ANI ethuthuke kakhulu, ekunikeza ulwazi olufunayo imizuzwana ngaphambi kokuthi uqede ngisho nokuthayipha umbuzo wakho kubha yosesho. Ngokufanayo, i-Google Translate iba ngcono ekuhumusheni. Futhi i-Google Amamephu ibangcono ekukuqondiseni lapho udinga ukuya khona ngokushesha.

Ezinye izibonelo zifaka ikhono le-Amazon lokuphakamisa imikhiqizo ongase ube nentshisekelo kuyo, ikhono le-Netflix lokuphakamisa imibukiso ongase ufune ukuyibuka, ngisho nesihlungi esithobekile sikagaxekile esiba ngcono ekuhlungeni okunikezwayo 'okuceba ngokushesha' okuyengayo okuvela kumakhosana aseNigeria.

Ezingeni lebhizinisi, ama-ANI athuthukile asetshenziswa yonke indawo kulezi zinsuku, kusukela ekukhiqizeni kuya ezintweni ezisizayo kuye kwezokuthengisa (isb. 2018 Facebook-Cambridge Analytica scandal), futhi ikakhulukazi kwezezimali, lapho ama-ANI akhethekile ephatha khona ngaphezu kwe-80% kukho konke ukuhweba ngamasheya ezimakethe zase-US.

Futhi ngeminyaka yawo-2020, lawa ma-ANI azoqala nokuxilonga iziguli futhi ancome ukunakekelwa kwezokwelapha okuqondene ngqo nomlando wezokwelapha wesiguli noma i-DNA. Bazoshayela izimoto zethu (kuye ngemithetho yendawo). Bazoqala ukunikeza abeluleki bezomthetho emacaleni asemthethweni ajwayelekile. Bazosingatha ukulungiselelwa kwentela kwabantu abaningi futhi baqale ukucubungula ama-akhawunti entela ezinkampani aba inkimbinkimbi. Futhi kuye ngenhlangano, bazophinde banikezwe imisebenzi yokuphatha phezu kwabantu.

Khumbula, konke lokhu kuyi-AI ngendlela elula kakhulu.

Yini i-artificial intelligence jikelele?

Izinga elilandelayo elikhuphuka lisuka ku-ANI i-artificial general intelligence (AGI). Kwesinye isikhathi ebizwa ngokuthi “i-AI eqinile” noma “i-AI yezinga lomuntu,” ukusungulwa kwesikhathi esizayo kwe-AGI (ebikezelwe ngasekuqaleni kwawo-2030) kumele i-AI enekhono njenganoma yimuphi umuntu.

(Leli futhi izinga le-AI elimelela i-AI eqanjiwe, futhi njengeDatha evela ku-Star Trek noma i-T-800 evela ku-The Terminator.)

Lokhu kuzwakala kungavamile ukusho ukuthi ama-ANI achazwe ngenhla, ikakhulukazi lawo anikwe amandla yi-Google ne-Amazon, abonakala enamandla kakhulu. Kodwa eqinisweni, ama-ANI ayamangalisa ngalokho abeklanyelwe khona, kodwa abacele ukuthi benze noma yini enye futhi bayahlukana (ngokomfanekiso, kunjalo).

Abantu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, nakuba sisacindezelwa kanzima ukucubungula ama-terabyte edatha ngomzuzwana, izingqondo zethu zihamba phambili ekuguquleni izimo ngendlela emangalisayo. Singafunda amakhono amasha futhi sifunde kokuhlangenwe nakho, siguqule izinjongo ezisekelwe endaweni yethu, sicabange ngokusobala, sixazulule zonke izinhlobo zezinkinga. I-ANI ingakwazi ukwenza eyodwa noma ezimbili zalezi zici, kodwa kuyaqabukela ikwazi ukwenza zonke ndawonye—lobu buthakathaka bengqondo yibo ama-AGI azobunqoba ngokwethiyori.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi ngama-AGI, funda uye esahlukweni sesibili salolu chungechunge esihlola leli zinga le-AI ngokujulile.

Iyini i-superintelligence yokwenziwa?

Izinga lokugcina le-AI yilokho okuhola umcabango we-AI, u-Nick Bostrom, akuchaza njenge-superintelligence yokwenziwa (ASI). I-ASI ingadlula ukusebenza komuntu kwamanje kuzo zonke izici, kusukela ekuhlakanipheni kuye ekuhlakanipheni, kusukela ekudaleni ukuya kumakhono omphakathi. Kungaba njengokuqhathanisa uhlaka lomuntu oluhlakaniphe kakhulu, olune-IQ phakathi kuka-120-140, nosana. Ayikho inkinga engaba ngaphandle kwekhono le-ASI lokuxazulula.

(Leli zinga le-AI alibonakali kaningi kusiko lwe-pop, kodwa lapha ungacabanga ngo-Samantha ovela kufilimu, Her, kanye 'Ne-Architect' evela ku-Matrix trilogy.)

Ngamanye amazwi, lolu wuhlobo lwe-AI ubuhlakani bayo obungadlula noma yikuphi ukuhlakanipha okwake kwaba khona eMhlabeni. Futhi yingakho uzwa izinsimbi ezisindayo zaseSilicon Valley zikhala i-alamu.

Khumbula: Ukuhlakanipha kungamandla. Ubuhlakani buwukulawula. Abantu bangavakashela izilwane eziyingozi kakhulu emhlabeni kuma-zoo abo asendaweni hhayi ngoba sinamandla ngokomzimba ukwedlula lezi zilwane, kodwa ngoba sihlakaniphe kakhulu.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana namathuba nezinsongo ezilethwa ama-ASI esintwini, qiniseka ukuthi ufunda lonke lolu chungechunge!