Rising seas levels: Future threat to coastal populations

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Rising seas levels: Future threat to coastal populations

Rising seas levels: Future threat to coastal populations

Subheading text
Rising sea levels herald a humanitarian crisis in our lifetime.
    • Author:
    • Author name
      Quantumrun Foresight
    • January 21, 2022

    Insight summary

    Rising sea levels, driven by factors such as thermal expansion and human-induced land water storage, pose a significant threat to coastal communities and island nations. This environmental challenge is expected to reshape economies, politics, and societies, with potential impacts ranging from the loss of coastal homes and lands to shifts in job markets and increased demand for climate change mitigation efforts. Despite the grim outlook, the situation also presents opportunities for societal adaptation, including the development of flood-resistant technologies, the construction of coastal defenses, and the potential for a more sustainable approach to economic and industrial activities.

    Sea level rise context

    In recent decades, sea levels have been rising. New models and measurements have improved the data used to predict sea level rise, which all confirm a faster rate of rising. Over the coming decades, this rise will have significant effects on coastal communities, whose homes and land may fall permanently below the high tide line should this trend continue.

    More data has allowed scientists to better understand the drivers behind sea level rise. The largest driver is thermal expansion, where the ocean grows warmer, resulting in less dense seawater; this causes the water to expand, and thus, raises sea levels. Rising global temperatures have also contributed to melting glaciers all over the world and melting the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

    There is also land water storage, where human intervention in the water cycle leads to more water ultimately going to the ocean, instead of staying on land. This has a greater impact on rising sea levels than even the melting Antarctic ice sheets, thanks to human exploitation of groundwater for irrigation.

    All these drivers have contributed to an observable rise of 3.20mm per year between 1993-2010. Scientists are still working on their models, but so far (as of 2021), the predictions are universally bleak. Even the most optimistic projections still show that sea level rise will reach approximately 1m per year by 2100.

    Disruptive impact

    People living on islands and in coastal areas will experience the greatest impact, as it is only a matter of time before they lose their land and homes to the sea. Some island countries may disappear from the face of the planet. As many as 300 million people may live below an annual flood level elevation by 2050.

    There are many possible responses to this future. One option is to move to higher ground, if available, but that carries its risks. Coastal defenses, like sea walls, may protect existing low-lying areas, but these take time and money to construct and may be rendered vulnerable as sea levels continue to rise.

    Infrastructure, economy, and politics will all be affected, both in the vulnerable areas and in places that will never see a single inch of sea level rise. All parts of society will feel the knock-on effects that arise from coastal flooding, whether simple economic consequences or more pressing humanitarian ones. Rising sea levels will deliver a serious humanitarian crisis within the lifetime of the average person today.

    Implications of sea-level rise

    Wider implications of sea-level rise may include: 

    • An increased demand for industrial services to build or maintain sea walls and other coastal defenses. 
    • Insurance companies increasing their rates for properties lying along low-lying coastal regions and other such companies entirely pulling out of such territories. 
    • Populations living in high-risk areas relocating further inland, causing real estate prices along coastal regions to fall and prices for in-land properties to rise.
    • Spending on scientific research and infrastructure to combat global warming increasing dramatically.
    • Industries, such as tourism and fisheries, which rely heavily on coastal regions, experiencing severe losses, while sectors like construction and inland agriculture could see growth due to the demand for new infrastructure and food production.
    • A central point in policy-making and international relations, as nations grapple with the challenges of climate change mitigation, adaptation strategies, and the potential for climate-induced migration.
    • The development and application of flood-resistant and water management technologies, leading to a shift in the focus of scientific research and development efforts.
    • A decline in coastal jobs and a rise in jobs related to inland development, climate change mitigation, and adaptation efforts.
    • The loss of coastal ecosystems and biodiversity, while also creating new aquatic environments, altering the balance of marine life and potentially leading to the emergence of new ecological niches.

    Questions to consider

    • What sorts of measures should be in place to accommodate refugees displaced by rising sea levels?
    • Do you believe that coastal defenses like dikes and levees can be enough to defend some of the most vulnerable areas from sea level rise?
    • Do you believe current programs to reduce emissions and slow global warming are enough to slow the rate of sea-level rise?

    Insight references

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