AI war generals: Code commanders

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• February 6, 2025

Insight summary

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based military systems that act like seasoned commanders are opening new possibilities for managing defense operations. They can quickly analyze strategic data and suggest plans, although incidents involving inaccurate results and broader ethical questions have sparked demands for stronger oversight. Their influence might also extend to businesses and global policies, changing how companies invest resources, how people make everyday decisions, and how nations regulate advanced technologies.

AI war generals context

AI generals are highly advanced computer systems designed to oversee military operations, handle strategic decisions, and analyze complex battlefield data on a scale that exceeds human capability. They rely on large language models and machine learning methods to evaluate intelligence reports, coordinate troop movements, and suggest potential action plans. Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) highlights this concept by showcasing how open-source models like GPT-NeoX-20B and Dolly-v2-12b may be used for drone surveillance, target identification, and communication jamming in real-world scenarios. Meanwhile, Chinese scientists announced in 2024 that they developed and strictly confined an AI commander in a laboratory, signifying a trend toward granting AI greater authority while still attempting to maintain human oversight.

These AI generals operate through powerful algorithms capable of parsing classified and real-time information from multiple sources. Palantir’s video demonstration in 2023 illustrated how a chatbot interface might allow users to request aerial reconnaissance, generate different attack strategies, and confirm that weapons are available to carry out the suggested actions. However, there are known issues of models “hallucinating” information—an example being an open-source system that convinced a Belgian man to harm himself. Think tank Carnegie Europe emphasizes that without solid global standards and legal frameworks, the security risks of military AI might escalate, leading to unpredictable outcomes.

Presently, there is no comprehensive international framework to regulate AI generals, although some organizations and governments are urging stronger controls. Carnegie Europe’s findings in 2024 stress that the European Union needs to guide global efforts toward responsible AI governance, especially since its AI Act excludes military use. Meanwhile, the US and China are engaged in intense competition over advanced AI, and experts point out that partial measures—like restricting exports of high-performance chips—do not fully address the broader risks. 

Disruptive impact

AI-based military technologies could be repurposed for personal use, delivering risk assessments or aiding with daily tasks. For example, personal finance tools could change how individuals invest and handle money because predictive analytics might spot opportunities and pitfalls earlier. In addition, greater reliance on decision algorithms could create new career paths, including roles in data interpretation and digital oversight. However, privacy concerns may escalate if personal data is collected or shared at higher levels than before.

Companies that incorporate these systems into their workflows may gain an edge in strategic planning and market forecasting. Some firms could develop specialized products that handle AI-driven threat analysis for cyber defense and operational security. New job categories might also appear, such as specialized AI trainers who refine decision models for sector-specific challenges. In addition, executives may weigh ethical questions, balancing risk mitigation against profitability.

Governments might direct more resources toward overseeing AI adoption, shaping regulations that mirror the shifting nature of military-focused technologies. New cross-border initiatives may also form to align research standards and security protocols, reducing the chance of unexpected incidents. Funding preferences could tilt toward education and training so that citizens have the skills to thrive in AI-enhanced environments. Additionally, policymakers may debate how to preserve transparency when algorithms advise on sensitive activities, such as surveillance or targeted intervention.

Implications of AI war generals

Wider implications of AI war generals may include: 

• Companies offering AI-based defense solutions through subscription-based business models.
• Security alliances forming new agreements that require members to share AI research data.
• Public education systems incorporating ethical AI curricula, producing a generation of informed graduates ready for defense-related AI roles.
• Private research firms adopting specialized hiring practices, encouraging skilled workers to focus on AI-driven security tools.
• Governments imposing AI-specific export controls, affecting which nations can access advanced defense systems and altering trade dynamics.
• Cybersecurity providers offering tailored services for AI-driven weapon systems, expanding the market for digital risk prevention.
• Diplomatic negotiations revolving around AI usage rules, forming treaties that define acceptable conduct in intelligence gathering.
• Energy providers seeing higher demand for data center power usage, prompting them to plan eco-friendly upgrades and meet environmental goals.
• Elected officials in many nations reallocating defense budgets, diverting funds to AI-driven gear that promises different long-term efficiencies.

Questions to consider

• Which changes do you foresee in your community as AI-driven defense systems cross over into everyday life?
• How could companies expand their services to address rising demand for secure and ethical AI tools?