Autonomous ride-hailing: The future of transport, driven by machines

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• May 6, 2022

Insight summary

The autonomous vehicle sector is witnessing a dynamic shift with traditional car manufacturers and new entrants like ride-hailing services vying for a stake in the promising yet challenging landscape. While there have been strides in technology, with services like robotaxis being introduced, the journey has been marred with safety concerns and public skepticism. The industry stands at the cusp of reshaping urban landscapes, potentially offering more inclusive transport services and altering labor markets, yet it grapples with ethical dilemmas and the urgent requirement for fail-safes and responsible AI implementation.

Autonomous ride-hailing context

During the 2010s, research into autonomous vehicle technologies has grown significantly. During this period, legacy vehicle manufacturers investigated prospective mergers and acquisitions to advance their autonomous vehicle capabilities and maintain their market share within the automotive industry. Meanwhile, ride-hailing companies (like Uber) started entering the autonomous vehicle industry around 2017, with the goal of seeing self-driving vehicles entering public use by 2022. 

Unfortunately, existing AI systems have struggled to provide the safety and efficacy needed to operate autonomously in complex urban environments, even in developed countries with standardized street infrastructure. As a result, in 2020, Uber sold its self-driving technology unit to Aurora, a technology startup, with Uber taking a USD $400 million stake in the company. In 2021, Lyft followed suit by selling its self-driving research and development unit to the Japanese car manufacturer Toyota for USD $550 million. 

Meanwhile, Waymo (a company owned by Alphabet) introduced a self-driving robo-taxi service in August 2021. According to Waymo, the robo-taxi service has driven people autonomously for over 20 million collective miles without a single casualty. In August 2023, California allowed the 24/7 operation of robotaxis in San Francisco (including those operated by Waymo and General Motors' Cruise). However, the initial weeks after this landmark decision proved to be divisive, with Cruise robotaxis experiencing standstills and even allegedly blocking an ambulance from passing through.

Disruptive impact

As automated vehicles become increasingly developed, fewer accidents may take place on roads where these systems are deployed due to AI systems being far more likely to obey road rules and regulations than human drivers. In this future scenario, the late 2030s may see human workers within the transport industry—such as couriers, taxi drivers, and truck drivers—beginning to upskill or change professions entirely as their roles become increasingly automated by intelligent driving systems. Likewise, the systems used in autonomous vehicles could be transposed to different forms of public transport, thereby also leading to workforce changes in the public sector.

By the late 2030s, auto manufacturing companies that do not participate in the autonomous vehicle market will likely be overtaken by autonomous vehicle manufacturers. Meanwhile, automotive companies that succeed in developing reliable autonomous vehicles could pivot to —a see most of their revenue from—offering ride-hailing services offered to individuals and companies for various transport purposes. During this transition period, the price of human-driven cars and human-driven taxis and transport services would likely rise as auto manufacturers gradually reduce their production of such vehicles. 

Governments may also collaborate with autonomous driving system developers to ensure that these systems have fail-safes in case of error or malfunction. As already seen in the California robotaxi situation, residents are torn between acknowledging these self-driving cars as the future of transportation and considering them as a public nuisance and danger. Insurance firms may also need to consider the liabilities that come with robotaxis dominating the streets.

Implications of autonomous ride-hailing services

Wider implications of autonomous ride-hailing services may include:

• Making transport services increasingly accessible to individuals of lower socioeconomic means, senior citizens, and individuals living with disabilities, which could foster greater inclusivity and social cohesion.


• Lower mortality rates associated with car accidents and drunk driving, leading to a healthier population and potentially reducing the burden on healthcare systems.


• Significantly increased land-based travel activity by the general public, for both short and long-distance travel, especially given the forecasted cost of autonomous, electric vehicle, ride-hailing services will be minimal compared to equivalent 2022 transport prices.


• Increased population-scale productivity growth rates as vehicle passengers can more freely engage in various work or communication activities during travel.


• A shift in urban planning paradigms to accommodate the surge in autonomous ride-hailing services, leading to a potential reduction in the need for parking spaces in city centers, which could free up land for other uses such as parks, housing, or community centers.


• Governments establishing new regulations to ensure the safety and efficiency of autonomous ride-hailing services, which could lead to enhanced road safety standards and potentially foster innovation in the transportation sector.


• A potential decline in car ownership, leading to a change in the business models of automobile manufacturers.


• A greater push towards developing and implementing circular economy principles in the autonomous ride-hailing industry, leading to more sustainable consumption and production patterns, which could see companies adopting business models that prioritize the reuse and recycling of vehicle components.


• Labor market disruptions, potentially leading to job losses in the traditional taxi and trucking industries, which could require retraining and reskilling programs.


• Increased pushback by citizen groups as ethical debates on who should be liable for these robotaxis' errors become heated.

Question to consider

• What impact might autonomous ride-hailing services have on your personal and work life? Or even how you plan travel activities?


• Where do you see human drivers continuing to be utilized in a future scenario of widescale adoption of autonomous vehicles?