Direct air capture: Air-cleaning machines

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 5, 2024

Insight summary

Direct air capture (DAC) technology offers a flexible solution to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, but its high costs and energy requirements present challenges for widespread adoption. As the technology evolves, it could create new markets for carbon credits and eco-friendly products, though initial prices may limit consumer accessibility. Governments, businesses, and local communities may face new economic, environmental, and policy shifts as they balance DAC implementation with energy demands and sustainability goals.

Direct air capture context

DAC removes carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere, offering a potential solution to reduce greenhouse gas levels. Unlike traditional carbon capture methods, which collect emissions at their source—such as industrial plants—DAC can operate virtually anywhere, making it more flexible. The captured CO2 can be stored underground or repurposed in synthetic fuels or beverage carbonation. However, this process is more expensive than capturing CO2 from industrial flue gas due to the diluted nature of atmospheric CO2, which requires more energy and higher costs. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), DAC currently captures about 0.01 million metric tons of CO2 per year, a figure that needs to scale dramatically to meet global climate goals.

Several companies and projects are advancing DAC technologies. For example, Texas-based company 1PointFive began constructing its Stratos plant, which by 2025 aims to capture 500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually, making it the largest facility of its kind. Meanwhile, Iceland’s Climeworks, through its Orca plant, captures around 4,000 metric tons annually, using renewable geothermal energy to power its process. Additionally, the US Department of Energy has funded four regional DAC hubs to foster the growth of this technology, with Carbon Engineering leading projects in Canada and the Middle East. 

The future of DAC technology depends heavily on policy support and market incentives. Although the US introduced tax credits to encourage CO2 removal, current operational costs remain steep, with companies like Climeworks charging upwards of USD $1,000 per metric ton of captured CO2. The IEA forecasts that costs could drop to between USD $230 and USD $630 per metric ton as the technology scales, but significant innovation is needed to reach these targets. 

Disruptive impact

As DAC technology matures, people may have opportunities to invest in carbon credits or contribute to climate-positive initiatives through DAC-backed programs. Additionally, products made from captured CO2, such as synthetic fuels, could become more available, offering environmentally friendly alternatives for daily transportation. However, the cost of these products might initially be high, impacting affordability for the average consumer. Over time, though, as DAC scales up and costs decrease, individuals could see more eco-friendly choices in everything from air travel to household goods.

For companies, DAC may alter long-term strategies, especially those in aviation, energy, and manufacturing. With governments introducing tax credits and incentives for CO2 capture, businesses could be incentivized to adopt DAC to meet sustainability goals or gain carbon-neutral certifications. Additionally, industries reliant on carbon-intensive processes may start integrating DAC into their operations to comply with emissions regulations. New markets, such as materials made from captured CO2, may offer opportunities for companies to diversify their product lines. However, high initial costs and uncertain demand could pose risks for early adopters, especially for businesses without the capital to invest in emerging technologies.

Meanwhile, governments may need to carefully balance their climate policies with economic considerations as they fund and incentivize DAC projects. As seen in the US, national policies may increasingly support the technology through subsidies, tax breaks, or research funding. International cooperation on carbon capture standards and investments may also become essential, particularly for regions hit hardest by climate change. However, the high energy demands of DAC could put pressure on local energy supplies, potentially leading to shifts in how energy is generated and distributed. 

Implications of direct air capture

Wider implications of DAC may include: 

• New jobs in the renewable energy and carbon capture sectors, shifting labor markets toward green technologies.  
• Governments setting up international agreements to regulate and share CO2 storage capacities, creating new avenues for global collaboration and resource allocation.  
• Companies adopting DAC technology to produce low-carbon products, increasing the demand for renewable energy to power these systems and reduce overall operational costs.  
• Carbon credits tied to DAC becoming a mainstream commodity, influencing stock markets and investment strategies for sustainability-focused portfolios.  
• The high energy needs of DAC driving innovation in renewable energy storage technologies, leading to more efficient energy use across industries.  
• Small communities near DAC facilities seeing demographic shifts as new workers move in, potentially increasing the demand for housing and local infrastructure improvements.  
• Political debates emerging over the fair distribution of DAC technology funding, with some regions arguing for more support based on their higher levels of CO2 emissions.  
• Companies using DAC technologies to meet stricter emissions regulations, leading to a long-term decrease in pollution-heavy business models and supply chains.  
• The environmental impact of large-scale DAC projects influencing land use policies, as governments work to balance the needs of carbon capture with preserving natural ecosystems.  

Questions to consider

• How could DAC technology influence the products and services you use daily?
• How might DAC change the way companies approach sustainability and long-term business strategies?