Electric trains: The future of sustainable mobility

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• February 24, 2025

Insight summary

The rollout of electric trains is set to reduce carbon emissions, lower fuel costs, and improve travel efficiency. As rail networks expand, businesses may adjust their strategies, governments may shift infrastructure priorities, and industries tied to fossil fuels could face challenges. The long-term effects could change urban development, supply chains, and energy policies, making electric trains a key factor in the future of mobility.

Electric train context

Electric trains offer cleaner and more efficient alternatives to traditional diesel-powered rail systems. These trains operate using electricity sourced from overhead wires, third rails, or onboard battery storage, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Hitachi Rail’s Masaccio trains, which debuted at InnoTrans 2022, demonstrate how battery-powered systems can bridge gaps in non-electrified networks, a critical issue as 40 percent of European rail lines remain unelectrified. As governments and companies commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, electric rail networks are expanding across Europe and North America.

Advancements in electric train technology have focused on increasing efficiency, reducing environmental impact, and improving passenger experience. In Germany, electric vehicle automaker Tesla introduced the Giga Train in 2024, a battery-electric commuter service that saves an estimated 50 tons of CO2 emissions weekly while ensuring reliable transportation for employees at its Gigafactory Berlin. Meanwhile, in the US, Caltrain has transitioned its San Francisco-to-San Jose service to an electrified fleet, expected to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 250,000 metric tons annually—equivalent to removing 55,000 cars from the road. 

Electric rail technology continues to evolve, making trains more versatile and accessible across different geographies. Hitachi Rail’s Masaccio trains, which debuted at Innotrans 2022, demonstrate how battery-powered systems can bridge gaps in non-electrified networks, a critical issue as 40 percent of European rail lines remain unelectrified. Similarly, Tesla’s Giga Train, powered by Siemens Mobility’s Mireo B technology, signals the growing adoption of battery-electric solutions in urban transit. As battery range improves and production costs decline—having dropped 80 percent since 2010 (according to Hitachi)—electric trains are expected to play an even greater role in decarbonizing transportation globally.

Disruptive impact

Electric trains are set to change how people travel, affecting both daily routines and long-term financial decisions. As cities expand their rail networks, commuters may rely less on personal cars, reducing fuel costs and time spent in traffic. Quieter and cleaner trains can also improve urban living conditions, leading to higher property values near well-connected stations. However, ticket prices may rise in the short term to cover infrastructure investments, making affordability a key concern for lower-income passengers.

Companies near rail hubs may attract more employees as commuting becomes easier and more predictable. Logistics firms could shift freight transport from trucks to electric rail, cutting fuel expenses while meeting sustainability targets. However, businesses that rely on highway traffic, such as roadside restaurants and gas stations, may see lower demand, forcing them to adjust their strategies.

Meanwhile, governments may prioritize funding for electric rail over highway expansion, changing transportation policies at both national and local levels. Investing in new rail lines can create jobs and stimulate economic growth, but maintaining long-term funding may be challenging. Some regions may struggle to balance rail investments with other infrastructure needs, leading to debates over budget allocations. Additionally, countries with large diesel rail networks may face opposition from industries tied to fossil fuels, slowing the shift to cleaner transport.

Implications of electric trains

Wider implications of electric trains may include: 

• A decline in domestic air travel for short-haul routes, reducing airline revenues and shifting demand toward rail infrastructure.
• The growing need for lithium-ion and alternative battery materials increasing mining activities, raising concerns over resource availability and environmental impact.
• The shift from diesel to electric rail reducing fuel tax revenues, prompting governments to explore new taxation models to fund transportation projects.
• The increased efficiency of electric trains enabling more frequent services, driving population growth in suburban and rural areas with improved rail access.
• The reliance on battery-electric rail systems creating demand for advanced energy storage solutions, accelerating research in high-capacity batteries and grid integration.
• The electrification of rail networks leading to job losses in diesel train maintenance and fueling industries, requiring retraining programs for affected workers.
• The higher upfront costs of electric rail projects leading to debates on public spending, influencing political campaigns and infrastructure funding priorities.
• The reduced air and noise pollution from electric trains improving public health, lowering medical expenses related to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
• The integration of digital systems for train automation increasing cybersecurity risks, requiring stricter regulations and investments in data protection.
• The reduced dependence on fossil fuels for rail transport strengthening energy security, decreasing vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.

Questions to consider

• How could expanding electric train networks change your daily commute and travel choices in the next decade?
• What challenges might your city or country face in shifting from diesel to electric rail?