Heat pumps: Keeping the heat without the emissions

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• October 3, 2024

Insight summary

Heat pumps are becoming popular for heating and cooling due to their energy efficiency and ability to reduce household carbon footprints. As more governments push for adoption, consumers may save on energy costs, but higher upfront expenses and a shortage of skilled installers could slow progress. This trend could also drive job growth in installation and manufacturing, and pressure governments to update power grids.

Heat pumps context

A heat pump is an energy-efficient device that transfers heat from one location to another, using minimal electricity compared to conventional heating systems. Instead of generating heat like boilers or electric heaters, heat pumps move heat from outdoor air, water, or the ground to provide warmth inside buildings. A heat pump’s efficiency can be measured by its coefficient of performance (COP), which typically reaches a ratio of four, meaning it produces four times more heat than the electricity it consumes. The increased demand for heat pumps is partly driven by the need to decarbonize home heating systems, particularly in colder regions like Maine in the US, which surpassed its goal of installing 100,000 units by 2025.

Heat pumps operate using a refrigeration cycle that absorbs heat from a source, such as the outdoor air, even in subfreezing temperatures. This heat is then compressed and circulated indoors through a coil, where a fan distributes the warmed air. In summer, the process reverses, pulling heat from inside the building and releasing it outdoors. 

Heat pumps are versatile and can be used in different configurations, such as air-source, water-source, and geothermal systems. Though costlier to install, ground-source heat pumps are particularly energy-efficient due to the stable temperatures underground, making them popular in Europe, where heating accounts for a significant portion of energy consumption.

Several governments and organizations have promoted heat pump adoption to combat climate change. In February 2024, nine US states, including California and New York, signed an agreement to boost heat pump installations to 90 percent of new residential HVAC sales by 2040, with an interim goal of 65 percent by 2030. This push aligns with federal incentives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which financially supports households adopting heat pump technology. 

Disruptive impact

As heat pumps become more widespread, households could significantly save money annually by switching from gas boilers to heat pumps. This shift may provide better heating reliability in colder regions while lowering carbon footprints. However, initial installation costs could be a barrier for many, even with subsidies in place. As demand grows, people may also face challenges in finding qualified installers, potentially delaying the transition.

For businesses, the rise of heat pumps may open up manufacturing, installation, and maintenance opportunities. Companies that specialize in energy-efficient technologies may need to scale operations and hire more workers, especially in regions with strong government incentives. However, the supply chain could struggle to meet the growing demand for materials and components, leading to possible shortages. Construction and real estate businesses may also need to adapt, focusing more on energy-efficient building designs and retrofits. This trend could prompt new product lines or services like energy consulting to support heat pump installations in commercial properties.

Meanwhile, governments may face pressure to increase investment in infrastructure and workforce development as heat pumps become more common. They may need to focus on upgrading power grids to handle the extra electricity demand from widespread heat pump use. Additionally, policymakers could introduce stricter building codes to encourage energy-efficient retrofits and new construction. Governments may also need to address equity concerns, ensuring that low-income households can access these technologies and benefit from energy savings.

Implications of heat pumps

Wider implications of heat pumps may include: 

• A greater demand for heat pump installers, leading to the creation of specialized training programs and new job opportunities.
• Decreased reliance on natural gas, reducing geopolitical tensions over energy resources.
• The real estate industry marketing energy-efficient homes as a key selling point.
• Governments offering tax incentives for energy-efficient upgrades, leading to increased participation in green building initiatives.
• Technological advancements in heat pump design pushing manufacturers to create models that work more efficiently in extreme weather conditions.
• A rise in environmental activism, as communities push for faster decarbonization and the phasing out of gas-based heating systems.
• Greater awareness of energy-efficient home solutions leading to shifts in consumer behavior, with more people prioritizing sustainability when making household purchases.
• The construction sector adjusting its practices to meet new regulations requiring heat pumps in new buildings, potentially raising construction costs in the short term.
• Utility companies investing in smarter grids and renewable energy sources to accommodate the increasing number of electric heat pumps, leading to more resilient energy systems.

Questions to consider

• How might switching to a heat pump impact your household's energy costs and carbon footprint in the long run?
• How could government policies or incentives influence your decision to make energy-efficient upgrades in your home?