Peak car: The gradual decline of privately owned automobiles

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• December 16, 2021

Insight summary

The "peak car" phenomenon, characterized by a decline in private car ownership and usage, is reshaping our relationship with transportation. This shift, driven by urbanization, e-commerce, and the rise of ride-sharing services, is leading to fewer miles driven per vehicle and a decrease in the number of licensed drivers. The long-term implications could include a transformation in urban planning, changes in the job market, and a significant reduction in carbon emissions.

Peak car context

Peak car is a phenomenon describing a period when the ownership and use of privately owned automobiles plateaus and begins to decline. Analysts are monitoring this trend by tracking the number of vehicles produced each year, the number of miles driven by the typical individual, and the influence of automobiles in our lives. 

In the US, the total number of miles driven in road vehicles is still increasing; however, this number is growing slower as compared to the number of cars owned by the total population. As a result, each vehicle and passenger travel fewer miles each year on average. Furthermore, research shows that the number of miles traveled per car and per person of driving age peaked in 2004 and gradually declined afterward. Finally, according to University of Michigan researchers, as of 2014, the percentage of Americans holding a driver’s license has dropped by an average of 19 percent compared to 2011.

Since most people now live in cities, the reduction in driving is primarily because of inconvenience. The cost and difficulty of owning a car have also increased due to higher traffic and congestion. Cars are no longer essential for city dwellers, particularly younger generations. Moreover, the increasing trend toward e-commerce is resulting in fewer in-person shopping visits, negating the use of an automobile. When a car is needed, maybe for a weekend getaway or to help a friend with an apartment move, car-sharing and rental services are readily available for these occasions.

Disruptive impact 

The tide appears to be shifting against privately owned automobiles, especially in cities where the expense of car ownership has become very limiting. This trend will likely encourage more people to use public transportation and mobility apps (like Uber and Lyft) than ever before. 

Meanwhile, this societal trend away from personal vehicle ownership is coming during an already difficult period for the automotive sector. The current trend toward electric vehicles requires hundreds of billions of dollars of investments into new manufacturing facilities and supply chains, while the concurrent trend toward increasingly autonomous vehicles requires billions more in specialized software and hardware development. In this consumer environment, automotive companies may be forced to increase vehicle prices or drawback on production—either option will impair their ability to invest in electric autonomous vehicle development.

By the 2040s, next-generation vehicles may become a luxury product that’s primarily unavailable to the public sector. In such a scenario, the automotive sector might pivot its focus from personal conveyance to public transportation, providing mobility services similar to apps like Uber. Governments may need to develop comprehensive legal frameworks and standards to support this transition and ensure equitable access to all.

Implications of the peak car phenomenon 

Wider implications of the peak car phenomenon may include:  

• The public transportation sector experiencing significant ridership growth due to the increasing densification of urban centers.
• The long-term increased usage of mobility services like Uber/Lyft as ride prices fall dramatically thanks to the mainstream use of electric vehicles (late 2020s), then to autonomous vehicles (2030s), and then the additional competitors from automotive companies choosing to offer mobility services (2030s).
• A shift in urban planning and infrastructure development, leading to more pedestrian-friendly cities and a reduction in the need for large parking spaces.
• New business models in the transportation sector, resulting in economic growth and increased competition among ride-sharing and public transit services.
• The enactment of policies promoting shared mobility, leading to a decrease in traffic congestion and improved air quality in urban areas.
• Changes in population distribution, with more people opting to live in city centers due to increased accessibility and reduced reliance on personal vehicles.
• The acceleration of autonomous vehicle technology, leading to safer and more efficient transportation systems.
• A transformation in the job market, with a decrease in jobs related to car manufacturing and maintenance, but an increase in jobs in the public transportation and ride-sharing sectors.
• A significant reduction in carbon emissions, contributing to the mitigation of climate change and the improvement of overall environmental health.

Questions to consider

• How will urban environments and infrastructure need to be redesigned for an automobile-free world?
• How will automobile manufacturers have to adapt to stay in business post-peak car?