Unpiloted military vehicles: Are we getting close to lethal autonomous weapons?

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• November 14, 2023

Insight highlights

The landscape of modern warfare is being reshaped by advancements in unpiloted military vehicles, such as autonomous Black Hawk helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Developed by Sikorsky Innovations and part of DARPA's ALIAS program, these vehicles are designed to undertake complex missions autonomously. Unmanned systems offer significant benefits, including cost savings and enhanced safety for military personnel. However, they also pose ethical, legal, and strategic challenges, such as accountability in cases of unintended civilian casualties and the potential for misuse by non-state actors or authoritarian regimes. As this technology evolves, it opens up new opportunities beyond the military sphere but also requires stringent international regulation to mitigate risks and ethical dilemmas.

Unpiloted military vehicles context

In 2022, the US military successfully demonstrated a completely autonomous Black Hawk helicopter capable of executing complex missions like delivering blood supplies and carrying heavy cargo. This milestone, part of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's ALIAS program, was achieved through Sikorsky's MATRIX technology, a kit that transforms traditional helicopters into autonomous ones. According to Igor Cherepinsky of Sikorsky Innovations, the autonomous system only requires initial mission details, after which it can independently make decisions without a data link.

This breakthrough is just one of the many emerging innovations in unpiloted military vehicles, of which drones or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are becoming the most popular and effective in warfare. A recent example of this was in 2020, when drone strikes in the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan fundamentally altered the course of the conflict, showcasing the transformative power of autonomous machines in modern warfare. The drones, which successfully targeted Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers as well as tanks, artillery, and air defense systems, gave Azerbaijan a significant advantage.

The next phase in UAV development is focused on Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), potentially represented by experimental models like the Boeing X-45 and Northrop Grumman X-47, which resemble scaled-down B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. These UCAVs, approximately one-third to one-sixth the weight of a traditional single-seat fighter bomber, could supplement or replace piloted aircraft in high-risk attack scenarios. 

Disruptive impact

Unpiloted military vehicles, including UAVs and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), are set to fundamentally change the nature of warfare and conflict. Unmanned systems can be deployed in high-threat environments, accomplishing missions that would be too dangerous for human soldiers or pilots. This feature not only improves the safety of military personnel but also expands the range of missions that military forces can undertake.

However, this technological advancement also comes with ethical and legal concerns. There is an ongoing debate about the moral implications of using autonomous systems in combat situations, particularly those capable of making life-or-death decisions (lethal autonomous weapons or LAWs). The issue of accountability in the event of unintended civilian casualties or other collateral damage remains unresolved. Moreover, using such systems could potentially lower the threshold for entering into armed conflict as the risk to one's military personnel decreases.

Finally, there are strategic and security implications. The widespread adoption of unpiloted military vehicles could trigger new arms races as nations strive to gain the upper hand in this emerging field. It could also lead to proliferation issues, as non-state actors and less responsible states could acquire and use these technologies in destabilizing ways. The need for robust international norms and controls on these technologies has never been greater. Nonetheless, if properly regulated, some argue that the benefits of these autonomous vehicles can extend beyond the military and into deep sea and space exploration.

Implications of unpiloted military vehicles

Wider implications of unpiloted military vehicles may include: 

• Significant cost savings for militaries, potentially freeing up funds for other purposes.


• Advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence, computer science, and telecommunications. Over the long term, many of these advancements will likely find applications beyond the military, impacting various industries and technologies.


• Soldiers being removed from the battlefield turning the human cost of conflict into something abstract, making war seem more palatable to decision-makers and the public. 


• Significant job displacement within the military. At the same time, new jobs will likely be created in the sectors that design, manufacture, and maintain these vehicles. This trend could lead to a greater emphasis on highly skilled technical roles.


• An arms race and escalating tensions leading to conflict. This development could destabilize international relations and make diplomatic resolution of disputes more difficult.


• A risk that these vehicles could be misused by authoritarian regimes to suppress internal dissent without risking human soldiers' lives, contributing to a more repressive global political climate.


• Non-state actors or low-income nations resorting to unconventional strategies, including terrorism and guerilla warfare, to counter the technological advantages of autonomous machines.


• Increased pollution and carbon emissions as the manufacturing and deployment of these machines scale up.


• A push to give these machines more autonomy, potentially to the point where they can make life-and-death decisions without human intervention, raising significant ethical questions about the role of AI in warfare.

Questions to consider

• If you work for the military, how does your organization use autonomous machines?


• How else might these unpiloted vehicles be used in the military?